Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are down 13 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 16 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 154 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.

Stock futures indicate a lower open for the major indices ahead of the Retail Sales report for February at 8:30 ET, which may have market-moving implications. The market expects 0.7% growth this month after a weak report in January. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview that he is "not worried" about the stock market. He said there are "no guarantees" that a recession will be avoided.

Geopolitical tensions are increasing after President Trump ordered military action against Houthi terrorists in Yemen following Houthi attacks on US vessels.

In other news, China reported better than expected growth figures for January/February, though home prices remained weak. China State Council announced a "Special Action Plan" aimed at increasing domestic demand.

In corporate news:

• Intel (INTC 24.39, +0.34, +1.4%): discloses compensation plan for CEO Lip-Bu Tan; planning changes to manufacturing and AI operations, according to Reuters
• Uber (UBER 71.75, +0.20, +0.3%): in discussions to acquire BluSmart, according to Economic Times
• Apple (AAPL 212.79, -0.70, -0.3%): iPhone 17 Air will likely foreshadow transition to slimmer models, according to Bloomberg
• Walmart (WMT 85.30, -0.50, -0.1%): Klarna will be provider of buy now, pay later loans for Walmart instead of Affirm (AFRM), according to CNBC

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a higher note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.9%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.8%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.2%, India's Sensex: +0.5%, South Korea's Kospi: +1.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.9%.
  • In economic data:
    • China's February House Prices -4.8% yr/yr (last -5.0%). February Fixed Asset Investment 4.1% yr/yr (expected 3.2%; last 3.2%), February Industrial Production 5.9% yr/yr (expected 5.3%; last 6.2%), February Retail Sales 4.0% yr/yr (expected 3.8%; last 3.7%), and February Unemployment Rate 5.4% (expected 5.1%; last 5.1%)
    • South Korea's February trade surplus $4.15 bln (expected $4.30 bln; last deficit of $1.86 bln). February Imports 0.2% yr/yr, as expected (last -6.4%) and Exports 0.7% yr/yr (expected 1.0%; last -10.2%)
    • India's February trade deficit $14.05 bln (last deficit of $22.99 bln). February WPI Inflation 2.38% yr/yr (expected 2.36%; last 2.31%), and WPI Food Inflation 3.38% yr/yr (last 5.88%)
    • Singapore's February trade surplus SGD6.16 bln (last surplus of SGD3.04 bln). February non-oil exports 2.6% m/m (expected 2.5%; last -3.3%); 7.6% yr/yr (expected 8.7%; last -2.1%)
  • In news:
    • China reported better than expected growth figures for January/February, though home prices remained weak.
    • China State Council announced a "Special Action Plan" aimed at increasing domestic demand.
    • There was some speculation that Sanae Takaichi, who supports a weaker yen, could replace Japan's Prime Minister Ishiba.
    • Demand for Japanese debt pressured yields from their highest levels of the year, though the 40-yr bond underperformed, pushing its yield to a fresh record high at 2.804%.
• Major European indices are starting the week on a higher note. STOXX Europe 600: +0.5%, Germany's DAX: +0.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.1%, France's CAC 40: +0.3%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.4%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.6%.
  • In economic data:
    • Italy's February CPI 0.2% m/m, as expected (last 0.6%); 1.6% yr/yr (expected 1.7%; last 1.5%)
  • In news:
    • Weakness in British defense firm Qinetiq followed a warning of slower growth due to contract delays
    • AstraZeneca announced a $1 billion acquisition of biotech company EsoBiotec to expand its cancer treatment portfolio.
    • The OECD downgraded the U.K.'s growth forecasts for 2025 and 2026, citing weak economic performance and global trade tensions.