Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are up 48 points and are trading 0.9% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 224 points and are trading 1.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 251 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value.

Contracts tied to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials are higher as equities try to bounce from a short-term oversold condition after the S&P 500 entered correction territory yesterday (i.e. 10% decline from its all-time high).

The threat of a government shutdown diminishing has provided a basis for the buy-the-dip mentality after Senator Chuck Schumer said he would vote to keep the government funded.

There's a potentially market-moving data release to get through this morning -- the preliminary March University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey -- at 10:00 ET. Participants will infer how the consumer sentiment reading may play into the Fed's decision in the future. 

Treasury yields are slightly higher ahead of the report. The 10-yr yield is up three basis points to 4.30% and the 2-yr yield is up three basis points to 3.95%.

In corporate news:

• Ulta Beauty (ULTA 332.88, +18.41, +5.9%): beats by $1.33, reports revs in-line; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus
• DocuSign (DOCU 81.50, +6.80, +9.1%): beats by $0.01, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus; guides FY26 revs below consensus
• Li Auto (LI 26.90, -1.82, -6.3%): beats by RMB0.90, beats on revs; guides Q1 revs below consensus
• Tesla (TSLA 244.65, +3.97, +1.7%): planning lower cost model for China, according to Reuters

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mostly higher note while markets in India were closed for Holi. Japan's Nikkei: +0.7% (+0.5% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +2.1% (-1.1% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +1.8% (+1.4% for the week), India's Sensex: HOLIDAY (-0.7% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: -0.3% (+0.1% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.6% (-2.0% for the week).
  • In economic data:
    • China's February New Loans CNY1.01 trln (expected CNY2.15 trln; last CNY5.13 trln). February Outstanding Loan Growth 7.3% yr/yr (expected 7.4%; last 7.5%) and February total social financing CNY2.23 trln (expected CNY2.50 trln; last CNY5.13 trln)
    • South Korea's February Import Pirce Index 4.6% yr/yr (last 6.6%) and Export Price Index 6.3% yr/yr (last 8.5%)
    • New Zealand's February Business PMI 53.9 (last 51.4) and February FPI -0.5% m/m (last 1.9%)
  • In news:
    • The People's Bank of China reiterated its moderately loose stance of monetary policy, adding that sound monetary conditions will be created for the economy.
    • South Korea's trade minister is visiting the U.S. to discuss tariffs and cooperation.
• Major European indices are on course for a higher finish to the week. STOXX Europe 600: +0.9% (-1.5% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: +1.6% (-0.5% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6% (-0.1% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: +1.0% (-1.3% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.1% (-0.4% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: +1.1% (-2.3% week-to-date).
  • In economic data:
    • Germany's February CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last -0.2%); 2.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.3%)
    • U.K.'s January GDP -0.1% m/m (expected 0.1%; last 0.4%); 1.0% yr/yr (expected 1.2%; last 1.5%). January Construction Output -0.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -0.2%); 0.2% yr/yr (expected 0.4%; last 1.5%). January Industrial Production -0.9% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.0%); -1.1% yr/yr (expected -0.4%; last -1.4%). Inflation Expectations 3.4% (last 3.0%) o France's February CPI 0.0% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.1%); 0.8% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.7%)
    • Italy's January Industrial Production 3.2% m/m (expected 1.5%; last -2.7%); -0.6% yr/yr (last -6.9%)
    • Spain's February CPI 0.4% m/m, as expected (last 0.2%); 3.0% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.9%). February Core CPI 2.2% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 2.4%)
  • In news:
    • UniCredit gained ECB approval to increase its stake in Commerzbank, signaling potential banking sector consolidation, though Commerzbank insists on staying independent.
    • Shein plans a London IPO, downplaying valuation concerns, while BMW warned of profit hits from US and EU tariffs, adding to economic uncertainty.
    • Meanwhile, Kering's shares are down after naming Demna Gvasalia as Gucci's creative director, sparking doubts about the brand's direction.
    • The leader of Germany's Green party said that he does not trust CDU leader Merz, who is likely to be Germany's next chancellor.