Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are up 29 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 147 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 114 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.

A positive bias in the equity futures market is being driven by rebound interest following four straight losing sessions for the S&P 500 that have included the underperformance of the mega-cap cohort. NVIDIA (NVDA), which reports its results after today's close, is up 2.6% in pre-market action after sliding 9.1% over the last four sessions.

Upside moves in the mega-cap space, coupled with favorable responses to other earnings reports and the understanding that the House managed to pass the resolution for a large reconciliation bill that includes tax cuts, spending cuts (mostly Medicaid), immigration, energy, defense, and a debt ceiling increase, has helped boost sentiment.

The budget resolution, which will now head to the Senate for consideration, calls for $4.5 trillion in tax cuts and a $2 trillion reduction in federal spending over a decade. Once the Senate passes the resolution, the House and Senate will begin drafting the actual legislation.

Separately, President Trump signed an executive order directing hospitals and insurers to disclose actual prices, not estimates, for healthcare costs, signed another executive order launching an investigation into copper imports, and announced that his administration will create a new visa category of "gold cards" for high-level immigrants with $5 million or more to invest in the U.S. (Congress will have to approve this). Repots also indicate Ukraine President Zelensky will come to the White House Friday to sign a minerals deal with the U.S.

Today's session will include the January New Home Sales Report (Briefing.com consensus 681K; prior 698K) at 10:00 a.m. ET and the results for the $44 billion 7-yr note auction at 1:00 p.m.

The 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.12% and the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.31%. The U.S. Dollar Index is up 0.2% to 106.56.

In corporate news:

• Anheuser-Busch InBev (BUD 59.05, +4.28, +7.8%): beats by $0.19, beats on revs; Co expects EBITDA to grow in line with its medium-term outlook of between 4-8%
• Axon Enterprise (AXON 568.08, +71.43, +14.4%): beats by $0.68, beats on revs; guides FY25 revs in-line
• CAVA Group (CAVA 102.50, +3.20, +3.2%): misses by $0.02, beats on revs, comps +21.2%; for FY25, sees Same Restaurant Sales Growth +6.0% to +8.0%
• General Motors (GM 48.65, +1.94, +4.2%): Board approves new share repurchase plan, including $2 billion accelerated share repurchase program, and higher rate for future dividends
• Intuit (INTU 605.00, +49.37, +8.9%): beats by $0.75, beats on revs; guides AprQ EPS below consensus, revs above consensus; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance, revs guidance
• Lowe's (LOW 251.00, +8.61, +3.6%): beats by $0.09, beats on revs; guides FY26 EPS below consensus, revs below consensus; FY26 comparable sales expected to be flat to up +1% as compared to prior year
• Maplebear (CART 43.80, -4.98, -10.2%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line, GTV up 10% yr/yr; sees Q1 GTV of $9.00-$9.15 bln and adjusted EBITDA of $220-$230 mln
• NVIDIA (NVDA 129.87, +3.24, +2.6%): slated to report its quarterly results after today's close
• Super Micro Computer (SMCI 55.88, +10.34, +22.8%): avoids delisting with filing of Form 10-K for FY24 and Forms 10-Q for 1Q25 and 2Q25
• TJX Cos. (TJX 124.10, +1.40, +1.1%): beats by $0.07, reports revs in-line, comps +5% vs +2-3% prior guidance; guides Q1 and FY26 EPS below consensus
• Workday (WDAY 287.04, +31.82, +12.5%): beats by $0.14, beats on revs; continues to see increasing demand for AI

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mostly higher note while India's Sensex was closed for Mahashivratri. Japan's Nikkei: -0.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +3.3%, China's Shanghai Composite: +1.0%, India's Sensex: HOLIDAY, South Korea's Kospi: +0.4%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.2%.
  • In economic data:
    • Japan's December BoJ Core CPI 2.2% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 1.9%). December Leading Index 108.3 (expected 108.9; last 107.5) and Coincident Indicator 1.0% m/m (expected 1.4%; last -1.4%)
    • Hong Kong's Q4 GDP 0.8% qtr/qtr, as expected (last -1.4%); 2.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 1.8%)
    • Singapore's January Industrial Production 4.5% m/m (expected -3.5%; last -5.4%); 9.1% yr/yr (expected 9.8%; last 5.2%)
    • Australia's January CPI 2.5% yr/yr (expected 2.6%; last 2.5%) and Q4 Construction Work Done 0.5% qtr/qtr (expected 1.0%; last 2.0%)
  • In news:
    • China's Vice Commerce Minister Wang has met with certain U.S. business leaders to clarify China's position on U.S. tariffs.
    • Hong Kong's Financial Secretary Chan said that a higher budget deficit is being recorded this year and that bond issuance will be increased.
    • Japanese officials are reportedly closing in on a budget agreement.
• Major European indices trade on a firmly higher note. STOXX Europe 600: +0.9%, Germany's DAX: +1.8%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.6%, France's CAC 40: +1.4%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.2%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.1%.
  • In economic data:
    • Germany's March GfK Consumer Climate -24.7 (expected -21.7; last -22.6)
    • France's February Consumer Confidence 93, as expected (last 92)
    • Spain's January PPI 2.6% yr/yr (last 2.3%)
    • Swiss February ZEW Expectations 3.4 (last 17.7)
  • In news:
    • Sentiment has been boosted by reports indicating that Ukraine is nearing a rare earths deal with the U.S. in an effort to end the war with Russia.
    • Producer prices in Spain increased at their fastest pace in two years in January due to higher energy costs.
    • Inbev reported strong quarterly results while Aston Martin and Stellantis missed estimates.