Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are down 15 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 99 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 84 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.

Early trading features a negative bias amid ongoing uncertainty surrounding tariffs. President Trump formally imposed previously announced 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum imports. 

Treasury yields are higher, adding to the pressure on equities. The 10-yr yield is up five basis points to 4.54% and the 2-yr yield is up two basis points to 4.29%.

Fed Chair Powell's semi-annual testimony before congress begins today.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism survey dropped to 102.8 in January from 105.1 in December. 

In corporate news:

• BP (BP 34.10, -0.32, -0.9%): misses by $0.02, misses on revs
• Humana (HUM 272.00, +5.20, +2.0%): beats by $0.05, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS below consensus
• Coca-Cola (KO 66.77, +2.22, +3.4%): beats by $0.03, beats on revs; guides FY25 EPS in-line
• AutoNation (AN 197.92, +5.28, +2.7%): beats by $0.71, beats on revs
• Marriott (MAR 299.00, -5.45, -1.8%): beats by $0.06, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; guides FY25 EPS below consensus
• DuPont (DD 79.25, +2.99, +3.9%): beats by $0.15, reports revs in-line; guides Q1 EPS above consensus, revs below consensus; guides FY25 EPS in-line, revs in-line

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Tuesday on a mostly lower note while Japan's Nikkei was closed for National Day. Japan's Nikkei: HOLIDAY, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.1%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.1%, India's Sensex: -1.3%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.7%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.1%.
  • In economic data:
    • Australia's February Westpac Consumer Sentiment 0.1% (last -0.7%). January NAB Business Survey 3 (last 6) and Business Confidence 4 (last -2)
  • In news:
    • Australian Prime Minister Albanese said that President Trump agreed to consider a tariff exemption for steel imports from Australia.
    • South Korea's exports rose 0.8% yr/yr during the first ten days of February with chip exports increasing 1.8%.
    • South Korean think tank KDI lowered its domestic growth forecast for 2025 to 1.6% from 2.0%.
• Major European indices trade near their flat lines. STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%, Germany's DAX: -0.1%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH, France's CAC 40: -0.1%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1%, Spain's IBEX 35: UNCH.
  • In economic data:
    • France's Q4 Unemployment Rate 7.3% (expected 7.5%; last 7.4%)
  • In news:
    • Germany's steelmaker association believes that new U.S. tariffs on steel and aluminum imports will divert more production volume to Europe.
    • French Prime Minister Bayrou survived another no-confidence vote.
    • Bank of England policymaker Mann said that inflation is becoming less of a threat as corporate power weakens.