Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade eleven points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region started the week on a mixed note with a relative lack of news catalysts. Attention turned mostly to the economic calendar, which featured better-than-expected export data for November out of China and a downward revision to Japan's Q3 GDP to -0.6% qtr/qtr from the preliminary estimate of -0.4%. Market participants are also waiting on this week's central bank meetings, starting with the RBA meeting tomorrow (expected to leave cash rate unchanged) and highlighted by the FOMC decision (25-basis-point cut expected) on Wednesday.

• In economic data:
  • China's November FX Reserves 3.346 trln yuan (expected 3.360 trln; prior 3.343 trln); November exports 5.9% yr/yr (expected 3.8%; prior -1.1%) and imports 1.9% yr/yr (expected 2.8%; prior 1.0%); November Economy Watchers Index 48.7 (expected 49.5; prior 49.1)
  • Japan's Q3 GDP -0.6% qtr/qtr (expected -0.4%; last 0.5%) and -2.3% annualized (expected -1.8%; prior 2.1%); Q3 GDP Price Index 3.4% yr/yr (expected 2.8%; prior 3.3%); November Bank Lending 4.2% yr/yr (expected 4.0%; prior 4.1%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: +0.1%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.2%
• China's Shanghai Composite: +0.5%
• India's Sensex: -0.7%
• South Korea's Kospi: +1.3%
• Australia's All Ordinaries: -0.1%

Major European indices have started the week with little conviction on the part of buyers and sellers. Global markets are waiting on key central bank decisions this week (RBA, FOMC, SNB) and next week (BOE, ECB, and BOJ). News flow has been relatively light, although Elon Musk has made some waves, saying the EU should be abolished after the European Commission hit X with a $140 million fine. ECB member Schnabel suggested the ECB's next move is likely to be a rate hike but conceded that rates were unlikely to change soon. French President Macron, unhappy about a trade imbalance, raised the possibility of tariffs against China.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's December Sentix Investor Confidence -6.2 (expected -6.2; prior -7.4)
  • Germany's October Industrial Production 1.8% m/m (expected 0.2%; prior 1.1%)
  • Switzerland's November SECO Consumer Climate -34 (expected -34, prior -37)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%
• Germany's DAX: +0.2%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: -0.2%
• France's CAC 40: -0.3%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.1%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%