Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade 36 points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a lower note. China reported underwhelming growth figures for November with Retail Sales growth (1.3%) slowing to its worst pace since late 2022 while house prices fell again. The Unemployment Rate stayed at 5.1%, making for a small silver lining. China added roughly 300 steel products to its list of items that require an export license. Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Breman said that financial conditions have tightened more than expected since the central bank's November meeting.

• In economic data:
  • China's November Industrial Production 4.8% yr/yr (expected 5.0%; last 4.9%), November Retail Sales 1.3% yr/yr (expected 3.0%; last 2.9%), and November Fixed Asset Investment -2.6% yr/yr (expected -2.4%; last -1.7%). November Unemployment Rate 5.1%, as expected (last 5.1%) and November House Prices -2.4% yr/yr (last -2.2%)
  • Japan's Q4 Tankan Large Manufacturers Index 15, as expected (last 14) and Large Non-Manufacturers Index 28, as expected (last 28). Tankan All Big Industry Capex 12.6% (expected 12.0%; last 12.5%). Tankan Q4 Small Manufacturing Index 6 (expected 2; last 1). October Tertiary Industry Activity Index -0.70 (last 4.70)
  • South Korea's November trade surplus $9.74 bln (last surplus of $9.74 bln). November Imports 1.1% yr/yr (last 1.2%) and Exports 8.4% yr/yr (last 8.4%)
  • India's November trade deficit $24.53 bln (last deficit of $41.68 bln). November WPI Inflation -0.32% yr/yr (expected -0.60%; last -1.21%)
  • Hong Kong's Q3 PPI 7.7% (last 4.0%)
  • New Zealand's November Performance of Services Index 46.9 (last 48.4)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -1.3% 
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.3%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.6%
• India's Sensex: -0.1%
• South Korea's Kospi: -1.8%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.7%

Major European indices trade in the green. U.S. envoy Witkoff met with Ukraine's President Zelensky over the weekend and they are expected to continue their search for an acceptable peace deal today. Switzerland's SECO raised its domestic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.1% from 0.9% while the CPI outlook for 2026 was lowered to 0.2% from 0.5%. Meanwhile, KOF also raised its domestic growth forecast for 2026 to 1.1% from 0.9% while the CPI outlook was cut to 0.3% from 0.5%.

• In economic data:
  • Eurozone's October Industrial Production 0.8% m/m (last 0.2%); 2.0% yr/yr (last 1.2%)
  • Germany's November WPI 0.3% m/m (last 0.3%); 1.5% yr/yr (last 1.1%)
  • Swiss November PPI -0.5% m/m (last -0.3%); -1.6% yr/yr (last -1.7%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: +0.8%
• Germany's DAX: +0.3%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.0%
• France's CAC 40: +1.1%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.5%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +1.0%