Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures currently trade two points above fair value. 

Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the midweek session on a mostly lower note. The Chinese government will reportedly limit access to NVIDIA's H200 chips even though the Trump administration is removing restrictions on exports of those products. China's CPI deflated unexpectedly in November (-0.1% m/m) but the year-over-year reading accelerated to 0.7% from 0.2% in October. This was the fastest yr/yr rate of increase since February 2024. Taiwan's exports jumped 56% yr/yr in November, representing the fastest increase in 15 years. U.S. Trade Representative Greer said that the trade deal with Indonesia is at risk due to Indonesia backtracking on multiple commitments.

• In economic data:
  • China's November CPI -0.1% m/m (expected 0.2%; last 0.2%); 0.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.2%). November PPI -2.2% yr/yr (expected -2.0%; last -2.1%)
  • Japan's November PPI 0.3% m/m, as expected (last 0.5%); 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.7%). December Reuters Tankan Index 10 (last 17)
  • South Korea's November Unemployment Rate 2.7% (last 2.6%)
  • New Zealand's October Visitor Arrivals 0.6% m/m (last 2.9%) and External Migration and Visitors 9.4% yr/yr (last 9.6%)

---Equity Markets---

• Japan's Nikkei: -0.1%
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.4%
• China's Shanghai Composite: -0.2%
• India's Sensex: -0.3%
• South Korea's Kospi: -0.2%
• Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.1%

Major European indices trade on a mostly lower note, though overall movement has been limited. European Central Bank policymakers continued speaking in favor of maintaining current policy with members Sinkus and Villeroy de Galhau saying that rate changes are not needed at this time. Germany's Chemical Industry Association saw a 1% drop in 2025 revenue with little hope for improvement in 2026. The Bank of France expects Q4 GDP to decelerate to 0.2% from 0.5% in Q3.

• In economic data:
  • Italy's October Industrial Production -1.0% m/m (expected -0.3%; last 2.7%); -0.3% yr/yr (expected 0.2%; last 1.4%)

---Equity Markets---

• STOXX Europe 600: -0.1%
• Germany's DAX: -0.5%
• U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.4%
• France's CAC 40: -0.3%
• Italy's FTSE MIB: -0.3%
• Spain's IBEX 35: +0.1%