Stock Market Update

[BRIEFING.COM] The S&P 500 (+1.0%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.9%), and DJIA (+1.1%) closed near session highs, marking a broad-based advance fueled by rising December rate cut expectations and renewed buy-the-dip interest after yesterday's lows.

Equity futures had pointed to a mixed open, but comments from New York Fed President John Williams (voting FOMC member) helped ignite the rally. He noted, "I still see room for a further adjustment in the near term to the target range for the federal funds rate to move the stance of policy closer to the range of neutral," sending the CME FedWatch tool's probability of a 25-basis point cut to nearly 75%, up from around 40% prior to his remarks. Boston Fed President Collins (voting FOMC member) echoed a mildly restrictive policy stance, though her comments had little impact on market expectations, leaving the CME FedWatch tool at a 69.5% probability for a December cut, versus 39.1% yesterday.

Several sectors got off to a strong start, including the communication services sector (+2.2%), which would finish with the widest gain of the day. Alphabet (GOOG 299.65, +9.67, +3.33%) posted another solid gain, trading higher even as other mega-cap and tech names struggled this morning. 

The health care sector (+2.1%) was another early standout, with several components hitting fresh 52-week highs as investors continue to pile into the sector amid volatility across growth names. The sector holds a 7.1% gain in November, which is the best among S&P 500 sectors. The S&P 500 itself is down 3.5% over the same time period. 

Meanwhile, the consumer discretionary sector's (+1.7%) gain was fueled by a combination of earnings strength and swelling rate-cut hopes. Ross Stores (ROST 174.00, +13.50, +8.41%) finished with the widest gain across S&P 500 names, trading to a new all-time high after topping earnings estimates and issuing upside guidance. 

Homebuilders were a top beneficiary of today's reinvigorated rate cut expectations. Names such as Lennar (LEN 123.16, +6.91, +5.94%) and D.R. Horton (DHI 146.71, +9.39, +6.84%) captured solid gains, sending the iShares U.S. Home Construction ETF 5.0% higher.

Rate-cut optimism also saw the small-cap Russell 2000 (+2.8%) and S&P Mid Cap 400 (+2.4%) outperform today. 

Despite a hot start from the broader market, the information technology sector (+0.1%) lagged in the early going. The sector was the last to resurface above its flatline after slipping 1.5% this morning. NVIDIA (NVDA 178.88, -1.76, -0.97%), which still finished in negative territory as tech names faced some late selling pressure, held a loss wider than 4.0% this morning. 

The sector held a 1.5% gain in the early afternoon hours but finished just above its baseline. 

The PHLX Semiconductor Index finished 0.9% higher as chipmakers (with the exception of NVIDIA and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD 203.78, -2.24, -1.09%)) finished mostly higher.

Meanwhile, Oracle (ORCL 198.56, -12.13, -5.76%) finished with the widest loss across S&P 500 names. 

Despite some late-session profit-taking, ten S&P 500 sectors finished with gains, as only the utilities sector (flat) failed to close higher. 

The S&P 500 Equal Weighted Index (+1.9%) decidedly outperformed the market-weighted S&P 500, highlighting that even with a solid index-level turnaround, there remains some caution surrounding the market's largest names. 

Nonetheless, today's broad-based rebound reflects renewed optimism around the possibility of a December rate cut and a willingness among investors to step in after recent weakness. While late-session profit-taking reminds traders of ongoing volatility, the rally indicates investors are cautiously rebuilding confidence after a rough week.

U.S. Treasuries climbed on Friday, building on their gains from this week. The 2-year note yield settled down five basis points to 3.51% (-10 basis points this week) and the 10-year note yield settled down four basis points to 4.06% (-9 basis points this week). 

• Nasdaq Composite: +15.3% YTD
• S&P 500: +12.3% YTD
• DJIA: +8.7% YTD
• Russell 2000: +6.3% YTD
• S&P Mid Cap 400: +2.0% YTD

Reviewing today's data:

• Flash November S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing PMI (actual 51.9; prior 52.5) and flash November S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (actual 55.0; prior 54.8)
• The final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading for November increased to 51.0 (Briefing.com consensus: 50.3) from the preliminary reading of 50.3 and the final reading of 53.6 for October. In the same period a year ago, the index stood at 71.8.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that consumer sentiment continues to be adversely impacted by the persistence of high prices and weakening incomes.