Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are flat and are trading in line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down six points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 30 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.

Stocks futures are mixed and little changed. Participation will likely remain below-average through the day ahead of the 1:00 p.m. ET early close in equity markets. The Treasury market will close at 2:00 p.m. ET. Markets are closed tomorrow in observance of Independence Day.

There's a slate of economic data to get through before today's early close, including the weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index, which declined 2.6% after last week's 0.8% increase. Other data include:

• 8:15 ET: June ADP Employment Change (Briefing.com consensus 163,000; prior 152,000)
• 8:30 ET: Weekly Initial Claims (Briefing.com consensus 235,000; prior 233,000), Continuing Claims (prior 1.839 mln), and May Trade Balance (Briefing.com consensus -$76.0 bln; prior -$74.6 bln)
• 9:45 ET: S&P Global U.S. Services PMI (prior 55.1)
• 10:00 ET: June ISM Non-Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 52.5%; prior 53.8%) and May Factory Orders (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.7%)
• 10:30 ET: Weekly crude oil inventories (prior +3.59 mln)
• 12:00 ET: Weekly natural gas inventories (prior +52 bcf)

Treasury yields are little changed from yesterday. The 10-yr note yield is down one basis point to 4.43% and the 2-yr note yield is is up three basis points to 4.77%.

Commodity futures are trading higher. WTI crude oil futures are up 0.1% to $82.86/bbl, natural gas futures are up 0.4% to $2.46/mmbtu, copper futures are up 1.9% to $4.50/lbs.

In corporate news:

• Paramount (PARA 12.10, +1.38, +12.9%): Skydance aiming to pay $1.75 bln for National Amusements and merge it into Paramount (PARA), according to WSJ
• Amazon (AMZN 200.04, +0.04, +0.02%): renewed to BofA Securities' US 1 List
• Constellation Brands (STZ 264.97, +6.03, +2.3%): beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; reaffirms FY25 EPS guidance
• Tesla (TSLA 236.48, +5.22, +2.3%): building on gains after yesterday's 10% surge
• MGM Resorts (MGM 42.60, +0.27, +0.6%): initiated with a Buy at BTIG Research

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended Wednesday on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: +1.3%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +1.2%, China's Shanghai Composite: -0.5%, India's Sensex: +0.7%, South Korea's Kospi: +0.5%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: +0.3%.
  • In economic data:
    • China's June Caixin Services PMI 51.2 (expected 53.4; last 54.0)
    • Japan's June Services PMI 49.4 (expected 49.8; last 53.8)
    • India's June Services PMI 60.5 (expected 60.4; last 60.2)
    • Australia's June AIG Construction Index -23.2 (last -68.1) and AIG Manufacturing Index -26.5 (last -31.1). June Services PMI 51.2 (expected 50.6; last 52.5). May Building Approvals 5.5% m/m (expected 1.5%; last 1.9%); 15.0% yr/yr (last 28.1%). May Private House Approvals 2.1% m/m (last -0.3%) and May Retail Sales 0.6% m/m (expected 0.3%; last 0.1%)
  • In news:
    • China's Caixin Services PMI (51.2) showed slower than expected growth in June while Services PMI readings from India (60.5) and Australia (51.2) exceeded expectations.
    • Australia's May Retail Sales (0.6% m/m) also beat expectations, though it was largely thanks to increased promotional activity.
    • Japan's services sector (49.4) contracted for the first time in nearly two years.
    • Leaders from China and Türkiye met with Russian President Putin in Kazakhstan today.
    • South Korea's finance ministry raised its domestic growth forecast for the year to 2.6% from 2.2%.
• Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +0.9%, Germany's DAX: +0.2%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +1.1%, France's CAC 40: +1.6%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.5%, Spain's IBEX 35: +1.2%.
  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone's June Services PMI 52.8 (expected 52.6; last 53.2). May PPI -0.2% m/m (expected -0.1%; last -1.0%); -4.2% yr/yr (expected -4.1%; last -5.7%)
    • Germany's June Services PMI 53.1 (expected 53.5; last 54.2)
    • U.K.'s June Services PMI 52.1 (expected 51.2; last 52.9)
    • France's May government budget deficit EUR113.5 bln (last deficit of EUR91.6 bln). June Services PMI 49.6 (expected 48.8; last 49.3)
    • Italy's June Services PMI 53.7 (expected 53.9; last 54.2)
    • Spain's June Services PMI 56.8 (expected 56.5; last 56.9)
  • In news:
    • Final Services PMI readings from the region's major economies showed ongoing growth in Spain (56.8), Italy (53.7), Germany (53.1), and the U.K. (52.1) while France's Services PMI (49.6) remained in contractionary territory.
    • Sweden's Riksbank expects two or three rate cuts in the second half, according to the policy Minutes from the June meeting.
    • The U.K.'s snap election will take place tomorrow with the ruling Conservative party expected to be dealt a major defeat.