Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are up ten points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 35 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 120 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.

Early trading features a positive bias. There's not a lot of news to influence the market on this shortened session after the Thanksgiving closure. The NYSE closes at 1:00 p.m. ET and the bond market closes at 2:00 p.m. ET.

Treasury yields are slightly lower. The 2-yr yield is down one basis point at 4.20% and the 10-yr yield is down two basis points to 4.22%.

There's no US economic data of note today.

In corporate news:

• Amazon (AMZN 206.60, +0.86, +0.4%): workers to protest today, according to NBC News
• Stellantis (STLA 13.07, +0.28, +2.2%): lowering Italy output due to weak EV demand, according to Bloomberg
• Meta (META 569.50, +0.30, +0.1%): CEO Mark Zuckerberg had dinner with President-elect Trump, according to NY Post
• Microsoft (MSFT 420.83, -2.16, -0.5%): facing broad FTC investigation, according to Bloomberg

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region ended the week on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: -0.4% (-0.2% for the week), Hong Kong's Hang Seng: +0.3% (+1.0% for the week), China's Shanghai Composite: +0.9% (+1.9% for the week), India's Sensex: +1.0% (+0.9% for the week), South Korea's Kospi: -2.0% (-1.8% for the week), Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: UNCH (+0.8% for the week).
  • In economic data:
    • Japan's October Industrial Production 3.0% m/m (expected 3.8%; last 1.6%) and October Retail Sales 1.6% yr/yr (expected 2.1%; last 0.7%). November Tokyo CPI 2.6% yr/yr (last 1.8%) and Tokyo Core CPI 2.2% yr/yr (expected 2.0%; last 1.8%). October Housing Starts -2.9% yr/yr (expected -2.0%; last -0.6%) and November Household Confidence 36.4, as expected (last 36.2)
    • South Korea's October Industrial Production 0.0% m/m (expected 0.6%; last -0.1%); 6.3% yr/yr (expected 2.4%; last -1.4%). October Retail Sales -0.4% m/m (last -0.5%)
    • Hong Kong's October Retail Sales -2.9% yr/yr (last -6.9%)
    • Australia's October Private Sector Credit 0.6% m/m (expected 0.5%; last 0.5%) and Housing Credit 0.5% m/m (last 0.5%)
  • In news:
    • The Japanese yen climbed to its best level against the dollar in nearly six weeks after November Toyko CPI increased at a rate not seen since August.
    • There was also growing speculation about a rate hike from the Bank of Japan on December 19.
    • Meanwhile, Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Bullock said that there is a low likelihood of rate cuts in the near future.
• Major European indices are looking for a modestly higher finish to the week. STOXX Europe 600: +0.2% (-0.1% week-to-date), Germany's DAX: +0.5% (+1.0% week-to-date), U.K.'s FTSE 100: UNCH (+0.3% week-to-date), France's CAC 40: +0.4% (-0.7% week-to-date), Italy's FTSE MIB: +0.2% (-0.6% week-to-date), Spain's IBEX 35: -0.1% (-0.4% week-to-date).
  • In economic data:
    • Eurozone's November CPI -0.3% m/m (last 0.3%); 2.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.0%). November Core CPI -0.6% m/m (last 0.2%); 2.7% yr/yr (expected 2.8%; last 2.7%)
    • Germany's October Retail Sales -1.5% m/m (expected -0.5%; last 1.6%); 1.0% yr/yr (expected 3.2%; last 0.9%). October Import Price Index 0.6% m/m (expected 0.2%; last -0.4%) and Export Price Index -0.8% yr/yr (expected -1.2%; last -1.3%). November Unemployment Change 7,000 (expected 20,000; last 27,000) and Unemployment Rate 6.1%, as expected (last 6.1%)
    • U.K.'s October Mortgage Lending GBP3.44 bln (expected GBP2.85 bln; last GBP2.57 bln) and Net Lending to Individuals GBP4.53 bln (expected GBP4.10 bln; last GBP3.80 bln)
    • France's September Consumer Spending -0.4% m/m (expected -0.1%; last 0.1%). November CPI 0.1% m/m (expected 0.0%; last 0.2%); 1.3% yr/yr (expected 1.5%; last 1.2%). October PPI 0.9% m/m (expected 0.0%; last -0.1%); -5.7% yr/yr (last -6.9%). Q3 GDP 0.4% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.2%); 1.2% yr/yr (expected 1.3%; last 1.0%). Q3 Nonfarm Payrolls 0.2% qtr/qtr (expected -0.1%; last 0.0%)
    • Italy's September Industrial Sales -0.3% m/m (last -0.3%); -5.7% yr/yr (last -4.9%). November CPI 0.0% m/m (expected -0.2%; last 0.0%); 1.4% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.9%)
    • Spain's October Retail Sales 3.5% yr/yr (last 4.2%). September Current Account surplus EUR4.10 bln (last surplus of EUR5.63 bln)
    • Swiss Q3 GDP 0.4% qtr/qtr, as expected (last 0.6%); 2.0% yr/yr (expected 1.8%; last 1.5%). November KOF Leading Indicators 101.8 (expected 100.1; last 99.7)
  • In news:
    • Eurozone's flash CPI report for November showed an in-line acceleration in the yr/yr CPI growth rate (to 2.3% from 2.0%) while core CPI remained at 2.7% yr/yr against expectations for a slight uptick.
    • France will continue its budget debate next week and there is a growing likelihood that Prime Minister Barnier will face a confidence vote.
    • Standard & Poor's will release its review of France's sovereign rating later today.
    • European Central Bank policymaker Stournaras said that tougher trade restrictions from the U.S. could invite sharper rate cuts.