Stock Market Update

The S&P 500 futures are up 25 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 100 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 200 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.

The stock market is poised to build on its post-election rally. Contracts linked to the S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Dow industrials are higher after major equity indices reached record highs last week. 

Post-election activity has driven Bitcoin to an all-time high above $82,000. 

The Treasury market is closed for Veteran's Day. The 10-yr yield settled last Friday at 4.31% and the 2-yr yield settled at 4.25% last week.

There is no US economic data of note today. 

In corporate news:

• NVIDIA (NVDA 148.70, +1.07, +0.7%): named top large-cap pick at Piper Sandler, price target raised to $175 from $140
• TSMC (TSM 198.50, -2.70, -1.3%): ordered by US to suspend shipments of artificial intelligence chips to China, according to Reuters
• Coinbase (COIN 313.51, +42.93, +15.9%): responding to rise in Bitcoin price
• Tesla (TSLA 344.70, +23.48, +7.3%): extending post-election gains in front of the open
• Robinhood (HOOD 32.74, +2.20, +7.2%): legal chief Dan Gallagher and others being considered for SEC Chairman under the second Trump administration, according to Bloomberg 

Reviewing overnight developments:

• Equity indices in the Asia-Pacific region began the week on a mixed note. Japan's Nikkei: +0.1%, Hong Kong's Hang Seng: -1.5%, China's Shanghai Composite: +0.5%, India's Sensex: UNCH, South Korea's Kospi: -1.2%, Australia's ASX All Ordinaries: -0.4%
  • In economic data:
    • China's October CPI -0.3% m/m (last 0.0%); 0.3% yr/yr, as expected (last 0.4%). October PPI -2.9% yr/yr (expected -2.5%; last -2.8%). October New Loans CNY500.0 bln (expected CNY77.0 bln; last CNY1.59 trln). October total social financing CNY1.40 trln (expected CNY1.545 trln; last CNY3.760 trln)
    • Japan's September Current Account surplus JPY1.27 trln (expected JPY2.80 trln; last JPY3.15 trln). September Economy Watchers Current Index 47.5 (expected 47.2; last 49.0). October Bank Lending 2.7% yr/yr, as expected (last 2.7%)
  • In news:
    • The market got a chance to respond to China's underwhelming stimulus announcement, which was known before the start of the U.S. session on Friday.
    • The People's Bank of China noted in its Q3 policy report that room for additional rate cuts is limited due to thin net interest margins and unfavorable exchange rates.
    • China's CPI deflated in October (-0.3%), putting additional pressure on the yr/yr rate (0.3%; prior 0.4%).
    • The market will be curious to see how consumer spending fared on China's Singles Day, which was today.
    • South Korea's exports through the first ten days of November were down 17.8% yr/yr, though chip exports were up 17.4%.
    • The Japanese parliament voted to retain Prime Minister Ishiba in his current post.
• Major European indices trade in the green. STOXX Europe 600: +1.2%, Germany's DAX: +1.4%, U.K.'s FTSE 100: +0.9%, France's CAC 40: +1.2%, Italy's FTSE MIB: +1.4%, Spain's IBEX 35: +0.5%.
  • No data today
  • In news:
    • German Chancellor Scholz is reportedly warming up to the idea of a confidence vote before Christmas.
    • European Central Bank policymaker Holzmann said that there is no reason for a rate cut in December, though the decision will depend on data.
    • Tiremaker Continental beat profit expectations for Q3 but lowered its guidance.
    • Fitch affirmed Spain's A- rating and raised the outlook to Positive from Stable.