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Briefing.com Summary:
*President Trump rejected Iran's conditional approval to reopen the Strait of Hormuz.
*Oil prices and Treasury yields are higher, contrinuting to weakness in the equity futures market.
*NVIDIA announced a $150 billion increase to its share buyback authorization.
All that hope on Friday about the potential for a diplomatic breakthrough between the U.S. and Iran has been stifled today after President Trump rejected Iran's conditional proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. WTI crude futures are up 1.9% to $94.17, which is pushing Treasury yields higher, and equity futures lower.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 28 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 182 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futurs are down 283 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value.
It is reflexive price action that this market has grown accustomed to, so one must also account for the possibility/probability that there will be some equal and opposite reflexive price action to buy the dip, if not today, then soon, and particularly if this oil price situation can be corrected.
Reports suggest the U.S. and Iran will still be talking this week though mediators. Meanwhile, the Treasury market will be talking this week through its response to economic data.
There is no economic data of note today, but important data will be released over the course of the week, starting with the September Consumer Confidence report on Tuesday and continuing with the August Personal Income and Spending report on Wednesday, the September ISM Manufacturing Index on Thursday, and the September Employment Situation report on Friday.
The 2-yr note yield is up six basis points to 4.91%, and the 10-yr note yield is up five basis points to 5.21%, working its way back from an overnight high of 5.23%. The Treasury market has basically walked back all of Friday's gains that stemmed from the move lower in oil prices.
This morning, the move lower has been reserved for Treasury prices and stock prices, which includes Meta Platforms (META) and MongoDB (MDB). Those two stocks are intertwined, with MongoDB announcing CEO Chirantan Desai is stepping down, effective immediately, for a seniro role at Meta. Shares of Meta are down 1.5% but shares of MDB are down 19%.
SpaceX (SPCX) is down 0.8% in pre-market action following its highly-anticipated Starship 14 launch.
Not all stock prices are moving lower, however. NVIDIA (NVDA) is up 2.0% after releasing a software platform designed to keep AI agents from going rogue, so to speak, and announcing a $150 billion increase to its share buyback authorization.
NVIDIA is a consequential company with some market-cap heft and some momentum pull, but for now, rising oil prices and rising Treasury yields are winning the tug-of-war for market sentiment.
