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Updated: 26-Aug-26 09:00 ET
Pondering known unknowns

Briefing.com Summary:

*Lingering questions about surprise U.S. visit to Moscow 

*No big shocks in Personal Income/Outlays data for July

*NVIDIA (NVDA) results expected after the closing bell

 

The stock market continued its tentative start to the week with a Tuesday session that saw the S&P 500 reclaim its loss from Monday amid ongoing volatility in chip stocks. This morning is setting up for a subdued start with futures on the S&P 500 trading about 20 points below fair value.

The cautious indication follows a night that saw limited movement in global equity markets and a steady overall showing from sovereign debt, including U.S. Treasuries. The early news flow has also been on the light side, giving participants additional time to ponder the implications of yesterday's surprise visit by a U.S. military plane to Moscow.

It is now known that CIA Director Ratcliffe was aboard the aircraft and he met with Russia's intelligence representatives on Tuesday. The reason for his visit remains unknown, but it is possible that Mr. Ratcliffe delivered a message about the economic pressure campaign on Iran. However, the visit could have also been prompted by Russia's recent mobilization exercises in Kaliningrad, a sliver of Russian territory surrounded by Poland, Lithuania, and the Baltic Sea. The last known visit to Moscow by a CIA Director took place shortly before the expansion of the conflict in Ukraine, so understandably news of yesterday's trip has raised some eyebrows.

Investors received three economic reports this morning with the initial reaction producing some light pressure on Treasuries and equity futures.

Personal Income increased 0.4% month-over-month in July (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), personal spending was up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%), the PCE Price Index was up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%), and the core-PCE Price Index also rose 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%). On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index was up 3.7% versus 3.7% in June, and the core-PCE Price Index was up 3.3% versus 3.3% in June.

The key takeaway from the report is that year-over-year rates for the PCE Price Index (3.7%) and the core-PCE Price Index (3.3%) remained at levels from June, so the report did little to alter the market's view of the latest income and spending trends.

Durable goods orders rose 1.1% month-over-month in July (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) after a revised 0.5% increase (from 0.3%) in June. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.5%) after increasing a revised 1.1% (from 0.6%) in June.

The key takeaway from the report is that the headline beat was driven by a 12.7% jump in orders for nondefense aircraft and parts while growth in orders excluding transportation undershot expectations slightly due in part to a pullback in new orders for computers and electronic products (-1.1%). However, these orders are still up a healthy 14.3% year-over-year.

The second estimate of Q2 GDP showed no revision from the advance estimate of 1.5% (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%). The GDP Chain Deflator was revised up to 6.4% (Briefing.com consensus 6.3%) from 6.3% in the advance estimate.

The key takeaway from the report is that the overall growth reading held steady as an upward revision to real final sales to private domestic purchasers (to 4.2% from 3.9%) offset a higher drag from imports.

Altogether, the reports pointed to steady growth, though with a persistent challenge from elevated inflation that has kept the core PCE Price Index above 3.0% for the past five months.

Treasuries backed down from their early highs after the data, with the 10-yr yield now up two basis points at 4.65% after marking a low at 4.63%.

Keep in mind that market cap leader NVIDIA (NVDA) is scheduled to report its quarterly results after today's close, giving the latest insight into demand for top-end AI chips.

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