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Briefing.com Summary:
*The market is back to favoring its favorite trade.
*The April employment report was good, but it wasn't indisputably strong.
*Mega-cap leadership is the main source of support.
The equity futures market is pointed higher this morning. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 37 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 232 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 145 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.
To get a line on why the futures market is up, we'll draw it to yesterday's session, which featured losses for the major indices. Right there, then, you have a catalyst for the buying interest: see market dip, buy the dip.
Beyond that natural reflex, the impetus for the upside bias can be found in the gains being registered by the mega-cap stocks ahead of today's open, the recurring go-to reasons this week (i.e., excitement over the Q1 earnings results, optimism that the Iran war and blockade of the Strait of Hormuz will end soon, and AI growth momentum), and some relatively pleasing economic data.
Enter the April Employment Situation Report, which featured a 115,000 increase in nonfarm payrolls, a 4.3% unemployment rate, and a bump in the average workweek to 34.3 hours (from 34.2). This was not an indisputably strong employment report, however. Average hourly earnings growth was weaker than expected, the labor force participation rate dipped, and the U-6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, increased.
The key takeaway from the report, though, may just be found in a number that looks good on the surface but could be a harbinger of lower spending activity if inflation pressures aren't controlled. We're talking about the 3.6% year-over-year increase in average hourly earnings, which leaves real earnings up just 0.3% when pitted against the March CPI report or up just 0.1% when measured against the latest PCE Price Index. That doesn't provide a lot of discretionary spending cushion without taking on debt or dipping into savings.
Notable headlines from the April Employment Situation Report:
- April nonfarm payrolls increased by 115,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 67,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls decreased to 48,000 from 63,000. March nonfarm payrolls revised to 185,000 from 178,000. February nonfarm payrolls revised to -156,000 from -133,000.
- April private sector payrolls increased by 123,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 60,000). March private sector payrolls revised to 190,000 from 186,000. February private sector payrolls revised to -148,000 from -129,000.
- April unemployment rate was 4.3% (Briefing.com consensus: 4.3%) versus 4.3% in March. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 25.3% of the unemployed versus 25.4% in March. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, increased to 8.2% from 8.0% in March.
- April average hourly earnings were up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) on the heels of a 0.2% increase in March. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.6%, versus a downwardly revised 3.4% (from 3.5%) for the 12 months ending in March.
- The average workweek in April was 34.3 hours (Briefing.com consensus: 34.2) versus 34.2 hours in March. The manufacturing workweek increased 0.1 hour to 40.4 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.0 hours.
- The labor force participation rate decreased to 61.8% from 61.9% in March.
- The employment-population ratio decreased to 59.1% from 59.2% in March.
