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Briefing.com Summary:
*Oil prices have vacillated on competing headlines regarding Strait of Hormuz developments.
*The S&P 500 and Nasdaq have scored gains in five consecutive weeks, while the Russell 2000 has made it six weeks.
*GameStop made a $56 billion offer to acquire eBay.
Most days it seems as if the market obliges the Iran war with some early nervousness, only to regroup after the opening bell with the predilection that it isn't going to hit the worst-case-scenario stage. We see this in the ebb and flow of oil prices and the ebb and flow of pricing in the equity futures market.
It has become the quintessential excuse to take some money off the table following a huge run by the indices, and in turn the notion that the worst-case scenario won't unfold has become the quintessential reason, along with the impressive earnings growth, to buy any dip.
So, here we are this morning, with oil prices up amid a headline squabble between the U.S. and Iran as to who controls the Strait of Hormuz, and the equity futures market ebbing and flowing amid reports that Iran fired missiles at U.S. ships in the Strait and the U.S. clarifying that no ships have been struck.
The S&P 500 futures are down six points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 26 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 140 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.
Sticking with the price check, WTI crude futures are up 0.9% to $102.83/bbl (off an earlier high near $107.00/bbl); the 2-yr note yield is up two basis points to 3.91%; the 10-yr note yield is up one basis point to 4.39%; the CBOE Volatility Index is up 5.0% to 17.84; and just for fun, South Korea's Kospi Index jumped, ho-hum, 5.1% in Monday's trading, and GameStop (GME) made a $56 billion, or $125.00 per share, cash-and-stock offer to acquire eBay (EBAY).
In other words, the market isn't consumed by the Iran war. It is watchful, but it is more attentive to the earnings results, which have been great, as discussed in The Big Picture column, and the price action on the tape that reflects a dalliance of concern about being overextended on a short-term basis that is being matched with a fear of missing out on further gains.
Thus far, the fear-of-missing out keeps winning out. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite rallied to new record highs on Friday, securing their fifth straight weekly gain, while the Russell 2000 scored its sixth straight weekly gain.
It isn't a stretch, therefore, to say the market is overstretched on a short-term basis and due for a pullback. At the same time, it isn't a stretch to suggest that plenty of participants who missed the rally are hoping for a pullback to buy into it. That is perhaps why the indices just aren't selling off to any large degree.
The driving catalyst for now, then, is the price action itself and how it will make-or-break sentiment cues. It has been all make and no break since the end of March.
