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Briefing.com Summary:
*Solid start ahead despite potential upcoming escalation in Iran conflict.
*Big upside surprise in Employment Situation report for March.
*Ongoing Easter closures overseas.
The stock market is seeking a modestly higher start to the week, taking in stride the developments from a three-day Easter weekend. The S&P 500 futures trade eight points above fair value (+0.1%) while Nasdaq futures (+101 pts, +0.4%) outperform.
The market will look to sustain its upbeat start to the week even though the conflict with Iran has not simmered down. To the contrary, U.S. forces executed a daring mission to extract a downed F-15E weapons officer on Saturday and President Trump gave Iran a Tuesday night deadline to stop interfering with maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz or face crippling strikes on its bridges and energy infrastructure.
WTI Crude started the week with a brief push above $115/bbl, but that move has been reversed with oil now back near $110/bbl. The slide from Sunday's opening high was assisted by news that OPEC+ agreed to increase its daily output by 206,000 barrels per day in May.
The intense focus on developments in the Middle East has drawn attention away from the Employment Situation report for March, which was released on Friday morning and handily beat expectations. The report showed much stronger-than-expected Nonfarm Payrolls (178,000; Briefing.com consensus 51,000) and Nonfarm Private Payrolls (186,000; Briefing.com consensus 51,000), a dip in the Unemployment Rate (4.3%; Briefing.com consensus 4.4%; prior 4.4%), below-consensus Average Hourly Earnings growth (0.2%; Briefing.com consensus 0.4%; prior 0.4%), and a dip in Average Workweek (34.2; Briefing.com consensus 34.3; prior 34.3).
The report also revealed some sizable revisions to past readings with February nonfarm payrolls revised down to -133,000 from -92,000 and nonfarm private payrolls revised down to -129,000 from -86,000. Meanwhile, nonfarm payrolls for January were revised up to 160,000 from 126,000 and nonfarm private payrolls were revised up to 180,000 from 146,000.
While this report won't help the case for a rate cut, it should soothe some of the recent concerns about the labor market that resulted from the weak February report.
Today's data will be limited to the 10:00 ET release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for March (Briefing.com consensus 54.9%; prior 56.1%) and today's session is likely to see a bit lower volume than usual since European markets remain closed in observance of Easter.
Treasuries started the day in the red, but they have raced off their opening lows with the 10-yr yield at 4.33%, down two basis points from Friday's holiday settlement, but still up two basis points from Thursday.