Page One
Briefing.com Summary:
*The major indices are knocking again on the door of record highs.
*The U.S. and Iran are said to still be engaged in trying to renew ceasefire negotiations.
*The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is seen as a means to end for the Iran war.
It wasn't long ago that the market's fixation was on a 10% correction for the major indices, but if you want any indication about how quickly sentiment has turned, consider this:
- The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is up 29.2% over the last 10 trading sessions.
- The Nasdaq Composite has soared 13.7% over the last 10 trading sessions.
- The Vanguard Mega-Cap Growth ETF (MGK) is up 13.5% over the last 10 trading sessions.
- The Russell 2000 is up 12% over the last 10 trading sessions.
- The S&P 500 has risen 10% over the last 10 trading sessions.
- WTI crude futures have dropped 11.3% over the last 10 trading sessions.
- The 10-yr note yield has slipped 10 basis points over the last 10 trading sessions.
This move has coincided with the U.S. backing down from its threat to destroy Iran's power and energy infrastructure and engaging instead in efforts to work out a permanent ceasefire. In combative terms, this is called the "TACO trade." In market terms, it is the exercise of the "Trump put."
No matter what one calls it, there are manifold objective signs that the market has been relieved by the latest course of events, including a blockade of Iran's ports and the Strait of Hormuz. The latter has been accepted by the market as a means to an end for this war.
The extension of that belief, which has helped drive the turn in stock prices that has the major indices back knocking on the door of record highs, is that there won't be a major fallout for the global economy. Accordingly, there won't be a major fallout for corporate earnings either.
Now, that is the prevailing belief today. Future economic data and earnings guidance could trigger a rethink of that position, but this forward-looking market seems quite content about what it thinks is coming next.
Reports that the U.S. and Iran could soon engage again in ceasefire talks, major banks reporting better-than-expected earnings that have been helped by resilient consumer spending and stable credit quality, the broad-based participation in the rebound effort, and a steady rise in the forward 12-month EPS estimate have put a shine on the market's standing.
You wouldn't know it so much judging by the equity futures market this morning, but the limited conviction in the futures trade is more a case of congestion after a huge run in a short amount of time.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up three points and are trading fractionally above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up six points and are trading fractionally below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 43 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.
What stands out now isn't the lackluster showing by the futures market ahead of today's open but the lack of selling interest after such a big move that took the market from a correction to the cusp of new record highs just 10 days later.
