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Updated: 09-Mar-26 09:02 ET

Lower start ahead as oil passes century mark

Briefing.com Summary:

*Crude oil overtakes $100/bbl

*Ongoing uncertainty related to Iran

*February CPI report scheduled for Wednesday release

The stock market is set for a continuation of last week's woes after a night that saw an extension of the aggressive rally in the price of oil. Futures on the S&P 500 trade 77 points below fair value after being down more than 150 points below fair value last evening.

Soaring energy prices are the culprit for the early weakness in equity futures after the overnight session saw WTI crude climb past $100/bbl to a high just shy of $120/bbl amid ongoing worries that the Iran conflict could turn into a prolonged war. Oil backed down from its peak after FT reported that G7 nations are discussing a potential joint reserve release, but it is still up more than $10/bbl from Friday's settlement.

The weak start in the U.S. follows a night of selling in Asian equity markets with Japan's Nikkei falling more than 5.0% to a five-week low while South Korea's Kospi lost nearly 6.0% but stayed above its low from last week's plunge. Meanwhile, European markets have avoided comparable losses, but they have also been weighed down by the soaring price of oil.

The U.S. session will not feature any economic data, leaving the focus on headlines related to Iran or potential measures to counter oil's rally to levels not seen since mid-2022. On Wednesday, however, the market will receive February CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%; prior 0.2%) and Core CPI (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%; prior 0.3%). That report will not be affected by oil's recent surge, but a hotter-than-expected reading would be concerning for a market that is already expecting a hot reading for March.

Treasuries started the day on a lower note, sending yields toward their highs from Friday. The 10-yr yield is up four basis points at 4.18%, climbing back above its 50-day moving average (4.154%) with rate cut expectations facing some renewed pressure and the implied likelihood of a July cut slipping back to a toss-up from about 60% at the end of last week.