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Briefing.com Summary:
*The equity futures market has improved with oil prices fading from higher overnight levels.
*Treasury yields have continued to slip, even as oil prices have moved higher.
*Several airlines have said Q1 travel demand (and revenues) has been stronger than expected.
The equity futures market was trading with a downside bias earlier this morning in conjunction with rising oil prices. The tone has shifted, however, as oil prices have pulled back from higher levels. They are still up for the session (WTI +2.3% to $95.66/bbl), but the downward shift has provided some thrust for the equity futures market.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 13 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 31 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 122 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.
Pockets of strength in the mega-cap space have provided some broad market support, but otherwise there isn't a lot of conviction behind this morning's trade.
With the FOMC decision tomorrow and the uncertainty surrounding the Iran war, it is understandable that market participants would take a more cautious-minded approach to today's market.
The Treasury market seems to be. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.66%, and the 10-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.20%. Those moves come in front of the $13 billion 20-yr bond reopening at 1:00 p.m. ET, but they resonate more because they fly in the face of concerns about rising oil prices fanning inflation.
Accordingly, they may be suggesting that the market is starting to worry more about the higher inflation from rising oil prices hurting growth. Then again, that isn't the message resonating from the airlines.
Delta Air Lines (DAL), American Airlines (AAL), Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC), and JetBlue (JBLU) all shared this morning that first-quarter travel demand has been better than expected, leading to better-than-expected revenues. The downside is that higher jet fuel costs have stood in the way of better-than-expected earnings growth, except for Allegiant Travel (ALGT), which raised its Q1 EPS guidance.
The demand element, though, seems to be winning out. These stocks are all trading higher in pre-market action and have helped turn the tide in the futures market along with some of the mega-cap stocks.
It won't be a robust start for the major indices, but it will be an encouraging one nonetheless if these indications hold into the opening bell. The equity market is showing nice resilience to selling efforts, as the S&P 5000 continues to hold above its 200-day moving average (6612).
Happy St. Patrick's Day!
--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com
