Page One
Briefing.com Summary:
*Intel is down big after its earnings report and disappointing Q1 guidance.
*Capital One came up short of earnings expectations and announced a $5.15 billion acquisition of Brex Inc.
*Small-cap stocks continue to shine in 2026, with the Russell 2000 up 9.5% versus a 1.0% gain for the S&P 500.
It doesn't feel like this week was a shortened week for the stock market, with only four days of trading. With all the geopolitical drama, it feels like it has been a lot longer. But, here we are, three days in and the fourth about to start and the market is in a mixed state with small-cap stocks looking great, mid-cap stocks looking good, large-cap stocks looking meh, and mega-cap stocks looking lackluster.
The current disposition of the equity futures market is leaning meh to lackluster. The S&P 500 futures are down 18 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 92 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 240 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value.
There is a little leakage of the speculative fervor in the market, seen most nocticeably in Intel (INTC), which is down 12% after its earnings report and disappointing Q1 guidance. Prior to this report, INTC had risen 172% since August and was up 47% since the start of the year.
That price action has had a colling effect on the red-hot semiconductor trade that has the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index up 13.7% year-to-date. NVIDIA (NVDA), though, is up 1.2% in pre-market trading on reports China has advised Alibaba (BABA) and other tech firms to prep NVIDIA H200 orders.
Overall, there is some consolidation taking place for a stock market that has generally been performing quite well since the new year began. The Russell 2000, for its part, is up 9.5%. The market cap-weighted S&P 500 is up 1.0%, while the equal-weighted S&P 500 is up 4.2%.
Capital One (COF) is feeling a little more than a consolidation trade this morning. It is down 4.2% after coming up shy of Q4 earnings expectaions and announcing a $5.15 billion cash-and-stock acquisition of Brex Inc.
Some good news to report is that the House passed all 12 appropriations bills. They will head to the Senate now; and hopefully another government shutdown can be averted even if winter storm Fern cannot be.
Today's economic calendar includes the preliminary January S&P Global U.S. Manufacturing and Services PMI readings at 9:45 a.m. ET, and the final print for the January University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment at 10:00 a.m. ET.
The Treasury market is little changed ahead of those reports. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.62%, and the 10-yr note yield is unchanged at 4.25%.
