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There are a lot of news drivers in today's market that revolve around key fundamental factors such as earnings, inflation, and growth. The biggest driver, arguably, is the news that NVIDIA (NVDA) will be able to sell its H20 chip again in China.
That is the "biggest" news because NVIDIA, with its $4 trillion plus market capitalization, can move the market. It is currently up 4.5% in pre-market trading, which is providing the extra boost for the Nasdaq 100 futures. To be sure, there is life in the AI trade this morning, as NVIDIA's news has also been supplemented by reports that Alphabet (GOOG) plans to invest $25 billion in data center AI infrastructure, while Coreweave (CRWV) is planning to invest up to $6 billion in AI data centers.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 22 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 158 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 64 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.
The "biggest news" driver, though, is the June CPI report. It was better than feared from a headline standpoint, but it was not good enough to put to rest the fear that tariffs will drive higher, and stickier, inflation.
Total CPI was up 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following a 0.1% increase in May. That left total CPI up 2.7% year-over-year, versus 2.4% in May. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was up 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.1% increase in May. That left core CPI up 2.9% year-over-year, versus 2.8% in May.
There were some positive inflation readings, like shelter moderating to a 0.2% m/m increase from 0.3%, and new vehicle prices sliding 0.3% for the second straight month. However, there were some tariff distractions, so to speak, with apparel prices up 0.4% after being down 0.4% in May, and household furnishings and supplies prices rising 1.0% following a 0.3% increase in May.
The key takeaway from the report is that it will keep the Fed in its wait-and-see mode, not yet convinced that tariffs won't drive up inflation.
The 2-yr note yield is down one basis point to 3.89%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.40%.
In other developments, JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Citigroup (C), Wells Fargo (WFC), BlackRock (BLK), State Street (STT), and Bank of New York Mellon (BK) all reported their Q2 results this morning. State Street was the only one of that bunch to miss estimates, yet most of these stocks are lower in the wake of their reports.
Those responses, which have some sell-the-news dynamics in them, have acted as a restraint on the broader market, which is also processing a trove of economic data out of China that featured a stronger-than-expected Q2 GDP print and June retail sales, industrial production, and fixed asset investment data that was mixed relative to expectations.
