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The month of May was a great month for positive returns, but June is starting on a squishy note. Equity futures for the major indices are leaning lower as market participants grapple with the latest macro developments that include China turning back around and blaming the U.S. for violating the preliminary trade agreement reached in Geneva and President Trump announcing a doubling of steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, effective Wednesday.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 21 points and are trading 0.5% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 105 points and are trading 0.6% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 111 points and are trading 0.4% below fair value.
Given the tenor of today's lead headlines, another of which is a 4.3% jump in WTI crude futures to $63.43/bbl after OPEC+ announced a better-than-feared 411,000 barrel per day production increase for July, it can be said that the equity futures market isn't acting as if it is overly bothered by these developments.
And why would it be? It has seen this movie before, and every time it always seems to conclude with a (relatively) happy ending.
This time could be different, but market participants will believe that when they see it, so you can bet that there is still a healthy level of respect for the notion that today's opening weakness will get bought, or at least, that selling efforts will be held in check.
At the same time, one could make a case that the early weakness is also part of a normal consolidation trade coming off the best month for the market since 2023.
There certainly isn't any corporate news of note influencing things this morning, although it should be pointed out that the steel stocks are rallying on the steel tariff news. The economic calendar could perhaps be a market mover.
The final S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI reading for May (prior 50.2) will be released at 9:45 a.m. ET, followed by the May ISM Manufacturing Index (Briefing.com consensus 49.0%; prior 48.7%) and April Construction Spending Report (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%; prior -0.5%) at 10:00 a.m. ET.
The Treasury market is a bit soft in front of these releases, but like the equity futures market, it doesn't appear to be overly bothered at this juncture by the headlines. The 2-yr note yield is up one basis point to 3.93%, and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.44%.
