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The S&P 500 futures are up 20 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 87 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 95 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value.
There is a modestly positive bias in the futures trade ahead of today's open. It is rooted partly in hope that the U.S and China will strike some de-escalation parameters at this weekend's trade meeting in Switzerland; however, there is also some festering angst about the ultimate outcome after President Trump, in a Truth Social Post said, "80% tariff on China seems right! Up to Scott B."
Separate press reports suggest the administration is considering a tariff rate below 60%. That is still quite high and not good in an absolute sense, but if the president is floating the bogey of 80% today, it might come off in the market's mind on Monday as being really good if that ends up being the case.
When the president's post hit, it took some wind out of the futures market, which had been trading at higher levels.
In some related trade news, White House Economic Adviser Kevin Hassett told CNBC that he has been briefed that 24 other trade deals are close to being completed and that the UK trade deal will be a template for other deals. Recall that the baseline 10% tariff rate was maintained as part of that deal.
There is no economic data today, but lots of Fedspeak, including from Fed Governor Barr (FOMC voter), who said he thinks the tariffs could lead to higher inflation and higher unemployment. Treasuries are mixed.
The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 3.87%, and the 10-yr note yield is up two basis points to 4.39%. The U.S. Dollar Index is down 0.3% to 100.38.
