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The stock market is staring down another sharply lower open after a night of significant weakness in global equity markets due to ongoing concerns about the impact that new tariffs will have on growth. The S&P 500 futures trade 160 points below fair value.
Overnight, China announced a retaliatory 34% duty on imports from the U.S. while French Finance Minister Lombard called for a response that will invite negotiations. For the time being, growth concerns are weighing on the market's mind with crude oil marking a four-year low near $61/bbl.
The early selling in equities will send the S&P 500 toward its August low (5119), an area where the market will likely try to find some support.
The March Employment Situation report, which was released this morning, is not really shifting this morning's tone. That report showed that nonfarm payroll growth accelerated to 228,000 (Briefing.com consensus 130,000) and average hourly earnings grew an in-line 0.3%. On the downside, the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2% from 4.1% as labor force participation improved, and the report featured notable downward revisions to growth figures for January and February.
Rate cut expectations diminished a bit after the report's release with the CME Fedwatch tool pointing to a 38.9% implied likelihood of a cut in May, up from 21.9% that was seen yesterday, but down from today's peak near 50.0%.
Treasuries started the day on strong footing once again, sending the 10-yr yield lower by 13 basis points to 3.92%. The benchmark yield is now down 34 basis points for the week.