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The market cap-weighted S&P 500 finished yesterday with a 1.7% gain, yet that was viewed in some circles as a disappointment given that the S&P 500 had been up 3.4%. That view strikes us as a bit greedy, knowing the path the market has been on since Liberation Day.

It hasn't been a good path, but there was an attempt by the president to fill some of the potholes that had been dug by his tariff policies and remonstrations of Fed Chair Powell's leadership.

When there was a suggestion that the China tariff issues could de-escalate in the near future and there was a clarification that the president has no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell, stocks rebounded in a big way. Today, there has been some stalling of the rebound effort.

Market participants have caught wind of China providing some clarifications of its own, namely that there are no negotiations between the U.S. and China right now, that "all sayings" about bilateral talks should be dismissed, and that, if the U.S. wants a resolution, it should remove all unilateral tariff measures on China.

So, yeah, there's that. The headlines also feature a remark from President Trump that he may call Fed Chair Powell to explain why he should lower rates.

On the earnings front, Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) tempered its full-year comparable restaurant sales guidance, Southwest Airlines (LUV) cut its capacity growth plans for the second half of 2025, IBM (IBM) suggested near-term uncertainty may cause clients to take a wait-and-see approach, and Procter & Gamble (PG), Merck (MRK), and PepsiCo (PEP) lowered their full-year earnings outlooks. Texas Instruments (TXN), ServiceNow (NOW), and Whirlpool (WHR), though, reassured with their results, providing some offsets from disappointments elsewhere.

Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up two points and are trading roughly in-line with fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 52 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 111 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value.

These indications have all improved nicely from overnight lows. The S&P 500 futures, for instance, had been down as many as 46 points.

This morning's economic data has partially helped the rebound cause, along with some uplift in many of the mega-cap stocks and constructive action in the 10-yr note yield, which is down seven basis points to 4.32%.

• Durable goods orders surged 9.2% month-over-month in March (Briefing.com consensus 1.5%), bolstered by a 139% increase in orders for nondefense aircraft and parts. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were unchanged month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%) following an unrevised 0.7% increase in February.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that there was a rebound in nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft, which rose 0.1% following a 0.3% decline in February. This is indicative of a modest pickup in business spending, albeit before the reciprocal tariff upset on Liberation Day.
• Initial jobless claims for the week ending April 19 increased by 6,000 to 222,000 (Briefing.com consensus 220,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending April 12 decreased by 37,000 to 1.841 million.
  • The key takeaway continues to be found in the leading indicator of initial jobless claims, which continue to run at low levels that are nowhere close to being associated with a recession.

The Existing Home Sales Report for March (Briefing.com consensus 4.20 million; prior 4.26 million) will be released at 10:00 a.m. ET, and the results of the $44 billion 7-yr note auction will follow at 1:00 p.m. ET.

--Patrick J. O'Hare, Briefing.com