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The stock market was sent reeling Monday with a variety of factors driving its downfall.
- Tariff worries
- Concerns about economic and earnings growth prospects
- A re-think of the "Trump put" after the president implied he is not worried about the stock market's performance in setting his policy course
- The continued fallout of the mega-cap stocks
- Technically-charged selling interest with most of the major indices sliding further below key long-term support levels at their 200-day moving averages
We're hard-pressed to suggest this morning that the stock market is feeling better about economic and earnings growth prospects.
- Delta Airlines (DAL), citing a recent reduction in consumer and corporate confidence, cut its Q1 guidance. American Airlines (AAL) and Southwest Airlines (LUV), which said it is going to start charging customers for bags, also trimmed their Q1 revenue outlooks.
- Retailers Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS) and Kohl's (KSS) issued disappointing full-year guidance after reporting their quarterly results.
- Oracle (ORCL) came up shy of fiscal Q3 earnings estimates and guided below expectations for its fiscal Q4.
- Dow component Verizon (VZ) said at an investment conference that it is seeing elevated levels of competitive intensity in Q1, and that a tough compare to last year will lead to gross adds this quarter likely being soft.
- The February NFIB Small Business Optimism Index dropped to 100.7 from 102.8 in January.
Notwithstanding these negative headlines, the equity futures market is leaning slightly positive but it has slipped from higher levels seen earlier. Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up four points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 24 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 12 points and are trading roughly in-line with pants wait to see if this market shows some rebound fight or simply rolls over again with an inclination to sell into strength.
Notably, Wall Street's troubles on Monday did not spill over to foreign markets, certainly not in like terms. China's Shanghai Composite traded up 0.4%, Japan's Nikkei slipped just 0.3%, and Europe's STOXX 600 has declined a relatively modest 0.6%. This relative strength fits with the global reallocation interest that has sprung up in 2025. On a related note, the U.S. Dollar Index (-0.4% to 103.44) is weaker again this morning.
The January JOLTS - Job Openings Report (prior 7.600M) at 10:00 a.m. ET is the last remaining report on today's economic calendar. While the market has already digested the February employment report, the JOLTS data will nonetheless be looked at closely as a gauge of labor market activity that can stir the stock market and the Treasury market for better or worse.
As of now, things don't look much better for stocks following a period in which things have gotten progressively worse.
