Page One
Briefing.com Summary:
*Micron posted some blowout results and guidance after yesterday's close that put some energy back in the AI trade.
*The November CPI report went the way the Fed and the market wanted it to go.
*Buy-the-dip interest is strong (again) this morning after the S&P 500 closed below its 50-day moving average.
Yesterday's trade was not an uplifting experience. The major indices succumbed to broad-based selling pressure, and the S&P 500 closed below key support at its 50-day moving average (6,765).
Fortunately, Micron's (MU) earnings report came at just the right time, as blowout results and guidance from the high bandwidth memory maker put some energy back in the AI trade.
That energy has been harnessed by the equity futures market, which is signaling a higher start for stocks.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 51 points and are trading 0.7% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 325 points and are trading 1.3% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 210 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value.
The futures market got an added boost of energy following this morning's economic news.
Total CPI for the two-month period from September to November was up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%), while core CPI, which excludes food and energy, was also up 0.2% for the two-month period (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%). The October data were not available due to the government shutdown.
On a year-over-year basis, total CPI increased 2.7% versus a prior 3.0%, and core CPI was up 2.6% versus a prior 3.0%.
The key takeaway from the report is twofold: first, it is a messy report because of the lack of October data, but secondly and more to the point today, the disinflation in the year-over-year readings is a welcome sight for policymakers and market participants.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending December 13 decreased by 13,000 to 224,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 229,000). Continuing jobless claims for the week ending December 6 increased by 67,000 to 1.897 million.
The key takeaway from the report is its low firing-low hiring dynamic, evidenced by the decrease in initial claims and the increase in continuing claims. That is a delicate balance that helps validate the Fed's willingness to walk the line with a rate cut at its December meeting, particularly when paired with the disinflation seen in the November CPI report.
Separately, the Philadelphia Fed Index dropped to -10.2 in December (Briefing.com consensus: 2.9) from -1.7 in November. The headline reading, though, was also accompanied by a welcome 13-point drop in the prices paid index to 43.6, which is the lowest reading since June.
Today's economic data was preceded by a bevy of central bank decisions that featured the Bank of England cutting its Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 3.75%, as expected in a close 5-4 vote, and the ECB deciding to leave all three of its key policy rates unchanged, also as expected.
The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.45%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.12%.
In brief, this morning's macro news is pairing nicely with last night's micro news (Micron report) to produce some electricity for a stock market that needed it.
