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Briefing.com Summary:
*The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite won the battle yet again at their 50-day moving averages.
*Big week ahead with the FOMC Minutes, NVIDIA's earnings report, retailer earnings reports, and the September jobs report on tap.
*Netflix begins trading today to account for its 10-for-1 stock split.
Once again, battle lines were drawn at the 50-day moving average for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, and once again, the battle was won by this bull market. Buyers stepped up when those key support levels were violated on Friday, but true to form, they held their ground on a closing basis, just as they have done since the recovery rally began in April.
This war isn't over yet, however. There isn't a lot of daylight between Friday's closing levels and the 50-day moving averages for the S&P 500 (6,708) and Nasdaq Composite (22,857). This week will determine if there is going to be more daylight or if the sun will set on the show of technical resilience.
Key happenings include the release of the FOMC Minutes for the October 28-29 meeting on Wednesday, NVIDIA's (NVDA) earnings report after the close on Wednesday, a batch of earnings reports from leading retailers like Home Depot (HD), Target (TGT), Williams-Sonoma (WSM), and Walmart (WMT), and the release of the September Employment Situation report before Thursday's open.
Other backlogged government data will be released in the coming days and weeks, so the economic calendar will soon become a fertile plain again versus the barren wasteland it has been since October 1.
That calendar has an entry today. The November Empire State Manufacturing Index was released this morning. It was stronger than expected, checking in at 18.7 (Briefing.com consensus: 6.1) versus 10.7 in October. The report featured a pickup in new orders, an improvement in its labor market indicators, and price indexes that slowed but remained elevated.
In other words, it didn't look like a report screaming for a rate cut in December. The probability of a 25-basis-point cut at the December FOMC meeting sits at 42.9% versus 44.4% on Friday and 93.7% a month ago, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.
The equity futures market was finding it challenging to hold a positive line ahead of the report, and that remains the case.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are down 10 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are down 31 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 79 points and are trading 0.2% below fair value.
That is setting the stage for a modestly lower open, and the spotlight will be on the mega-cap stocks. They are all lower in pre-market trading, except Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon.com (AMZN). After the close on Friday, it was learned from Berkshire Hathaway's (BRK.B) 13F filing that it took a new position in GOOGL to the tune of 17.85 million shares.
NVIDIA, Apple (AAPL), and Tesla (TSLA) are all indicated more than 1.0% lower. Apple, for its part, is contending with an FT report that CEO Tim Cook could step down as early as next year.
Meanwhile, the step down you'll see today in the stock price of Netflix (NFLX) is purely mechanical. It starts trading today on a split-adjusted basis to account for the 10-for-1 stock split announced on October 30.
In other developments, Sealed Air (SEE) announced that it will be acquired by funds affiliated with CD&R for $10.3 billion, or $42.15 per share, in cash, and Walt Disney (DIS) announced a new multi-year distribution agreement with YouTube TV.
