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There is a week every earnings reporting period that is "that week." The inference is that it is a week loaded with scheduled news and economic data that will be market moving and likely exhausting from an analytical standpoint.
A snapshot of what is coming the market's way includes:
- The Treasury Department's quarterly borrowing estimate (this afternoon)
- Earnings reports from Microsoft (MSFT; after Tuesday's close), Meta Platforms (META; after Wednesday's close), Amazon.com (AMZN; after Thursday's close), and Apple (AAPL; after Thursday's close)
- Earnings reports throughout the week from more than 170 S&P 500 companies
- Central bank policy decisions from the Bank of Japan (Tuesday), Federal Reserve (Wednesday), and Bank of England (Thursday)
- The July Consumer Confidence Report (Tuesday), the July ISM Manufacturing Index (Thursday), the Preliminary Q2 Productivity Report (Thursday), and the July Employment Situation Report (Friday)
These are the known items. The news cycle, of course, is full of uncertainty, so the unknown news is always hanging out there as a market-moving catalyst as well -- for better or worse.
What we know now is that the equity market is on track for a positive start.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 27 points and are trading 0.6% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 146 points and are trading 0.8% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 174 points and are trading 0.5% above fair value.
The positive disposition has taken root despite McDonald's (MCD) reporting disappointing quarterly results and Hezbollah launching a deadly missile attack over the weekend into Israel.
The anxiousness over the latter has been mitigated perhaps by oil prices that look quite calm in the wake of the attack. WTI crude futures are down 0.3% to $76.91/bbl and Brent crude futures are down 0.4% to $79.99/bbl.
Treasury yields are also sliding lower. The 2-yr note yield is down two basis points to 4.37% and the 10-yr note yield is down four basis points to 4.16%. It is difficult to determine if the Treasury market is playing defense because of the geopolitical angst or offense because of the optimism that the Fed will use this week's FOMC meeting to issue a stronger hint that a rate cut at the September FOMC meeting is likely.
It just might be a little bit of both, but in any case, lower Treasury yields are providing some runway for a continuation of Friday's rebound move.
