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Last Updated: 26-Jun-25 09:10 ET | Archive
Micron infuses some enthusiasm into the tape
The stock market saw a lopsided session yesterday end with the S&P 500 finishing just about where it started. It had the support of several mega-cap stocks, but it didn't have the support of most stocks. Today, the tape should look better and more involved, at least at today's open.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up 16 points and are trading 0.3% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 79 points and are trading 0.4% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 94 points and are trading 0.2% above fair value.
A better-than-expected earnings report and outlook from Micron (MU), which has some AI wind at its back, infused some enthusiasm into the tape that has AI leader, NVIDIA (NVDA), which is also the largest stock in the S&P 500 by market capitalization, trading higher once again in pre-market action.
Beyond that, this morning's economic data took a mostly right turn insofar as the Q2 growth outlook is concerned. The blemish was the Advance International Trade in Goods deficit, which widened to $96.6 billion in May from -$87.0 billion in April, with exports dropping more than imports.
The good news was in the durable goods orders and weekly initial claims data. Durable goods orders surged 16.4% month-over-month in May (Briefing.com consensus 6.6%) on a 230.8% increase in orders for nondefense aircraft and parts. Excluding transportation, durable goods orders were up 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.1%).
The key takeaway, however, is that new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft -- a proxy for business spending -- increased 1.7% on the heels of a 1.4% decline in April, reflecting a strong rebound after the reciprocal tariff pause announcement.
Initial jobless claims for the week ending June 21 decreased by 10,000 to 236,000 (Briefing.com consensus 247,000), while continuing jobless claims for the week ending June 14 increased by 37,000 to 1.974 million, which is the highest level since November 6, 2021.
The key takeaway from the report is that initial jobless claims -- a leading indicator -- remain entrenched at fairly low levels that are not associated with a recession or even a significant slowdown for that matter, but to be fair, continuing jobless claims are elevated and do point to some softening in the labor market. Businesses may not be laying off a lot of employees, but it has gotten more challenging to find a new job after losing a job.
The final pre-open report was the third estimate for Q1 GDP. It featured a downward revision to -0.5% (Briefing.com consensus -0.2%), from the second estimate of -0.2%, that was driven by downward revisions to consumer spending and exports that were partly offset by a downward revision to imports. The GDP Price Deflator increased to 3.8% (Briefing.com consensus 3.7%) from the second estimate of 3.7%.
The key takeaway is that this report is very much "dated," given that we are just a few days away from the end of the second quarter, so it shouldn't have much cachet as a mover for a market that has been cheered since early April by the arrival of hard economic data that has quieted recession concerns.
The 2-yr note yield is down four basis points to 3.74%, and the 10-yr note yield is down three basis points to 4.26%, after initially moving higher on the release of the data. We should note that there is a stirring in the market tied to a Wall Street Journal report that indicates President Trump is considering naming a replacement for when Fed Chair Powell's term ends in May 2026 by September or October, if not sooner.
