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Last Updated: 13-Feb-26 09:04 ET | Archive
Market in like with the January CPI data
Briefing.com Summary:
*The stock market found much to like in the January Consumer Price Index.
*The response to earnings results has been mixed, as some reports have ben liked more than others.
*Treasury yields took a turn lower after the CPI release.
The stock market had a fallout yesterday with itself. It didn't like what it heard from Cisco (CSCO) about margin pressures stemming from higher memory costs; it didn't like what it saw in the January existing home sales report; it didn't like the sight of renewed selling in the software stocks; it didn't like Bitcoin failing to hold early gains; and it didn't like seeing the S&P 500 drop back below its 50-day moving average (6,894).
In brief, it didn't find much to like—not even the drop in Treasury yields—and the consequence was a broad-based sell-off and a tape that favored the more defensively oriented utilities and consumer staples sectors.
It has found some things to like this morning in the earnings results from Applied Materials (AMAT), Roku (ROKU), Airbnb (ABNB), Coinbase (COIN), and Rivian Automotive (RIVN), to name a few, and it has found much to like in the January Consumer Price Index.
The equity futures were much lower before that release at 8:30 a.m. ET but saw some snapback action in its wake.
Currently, the S&P 500 futures are up seven points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 23 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are up 39 points and are trading 0.1% above fair value.
Total CPI increased 0.2% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) and was up 2.4% year-over-year, versus 2.7% for the 12 months ending in December. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) and was up 2.5% year-over-year, versus 2.6% for the 12 months ending in December.
The key takeaway from the report is that it showed some encouraging disinflation on a year-over-year basis, which the market will perceive as an opening for the Fed to consider additional rate cuts even with GDP growth running above potential.
The Treasury market saw some knee-jerk buying interest on the implication. The 2-yr note yield went from 3.44% to 3.40%, but it round-tripped and is back at 3.44%, down three basis points from yesterday's settlement. The 10-yr note yield went from 4.10% to 4.07%. It is currently at 4.08%, down two basis points from yesterday's settlement.
Although the equity futures market found a spark in the CPI report, it hasn't necessarily ignited an unmistakable rush of buy-the-dip interest. The major indices are projected to register some modest gains at the open. Buyers are likely still showing some hesitancy, knowing that this week's price action, for the most part, has not favored buy-the-dip responses and has been governed by some newfound skittishness over AI disruption themes across many industries.
The stock market, therefore, finds itself on some proving ground today, with reclaiming a posture above its 50-day moving average as the first test and sustaining some price action that will be liked as the next test.
