The stock market resisted selling efforts throughout the week, and it will face another test of buyers' resolve today after an overnight Israeli military strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
While the early response in U.S. equity futures has been negative, it has not been aggressively negative, considering futures on the S&P 500 trade just 53 points below fair value.
Crude oil, however, has been a lot more sensitive to the overnight developments, having rallied to its highest level since late January, just shy of the $77/bbl mark. That rally has been moderated somewhat, though oil is still up more than $5.50/bbl, or 8.4%, at $73.72/bbl.
The early strength in the price of oil will translate into a strong start for the energy sector, which has been the leading performer this month and this week. The sector ended yesterday with a 3.9% gain for the week and a 6.2% jump for the month. However, the sector is still the worst performer since the end of 2024, showing a year-to-date loss of 8.1%.
The market did not receive any economic data this morning, but the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Index for June (Briefing.com consensus 53.0; prior 52.2) will be released at 10:00 ET. Participants will be curious to see if there was a big change in inflation expectations among consumers, though the market is well aware that these expectations vary across different surveys. Last month, the Michigan Sentiment showed year-ahead inflation expectations at 6.6% while the year-ahead inflation expectations component in the New York Fed's Survey of Consumer Expectations was much lower, at 3.2%.
Treasuries are little changed this morning with the 10-yr yield up one basis point at 4.37% while the 2-yr yield has risen two basis points to 3.93%.