BLUE CHIP TRADER

BLUE CHIP TRADER

M Swing Long (+10%):
It was the start of the new year and this hard hit Department Store suffered more than a -50% correction during the latter half of 2015.With all the tax-loss selling out of the way, it was on my radar for a “January effect” rally. The stock managed to side-step the broader market sell-off to start January, making its relative strength worthy of a Long entry around $35. If the market was going to bounce back, I suspected M would pace the way higher.

It was also comforting to see Buyers interested in peer “brick n’ mortar” retailers like WMT, JCP, TGT, and KSS too. By the next day (Jan 5), price was bid up over $37 for an approximate +2 point gain. If you bought the Feb 35 Calls, the gain was +50%. If you sold the Jan 33.50 Puts, the gain was also +50%.

Price managed to hold up very well above 35/36 support the first week of January, which in turn led to a push up over $39 to its 50-day sma the next 5 days. That provided a gain of +4 points on stock and nearly +100% on the options.

04-Jan-16 10:15 ET	BLUEX	M Swing Long/Bounce Candidate (35.33 +0.35) With some Retailers showing relative strength amidst today's broad "free-fall," a beaten-down Macy's is trying to turn positive back over $35-level. Down more than -50% during the latter half of 2015, it's worth a try for a bounce back from this level now that it's been officially cleared from most portfolio holdings for the tax-loss. Long some here along $35-level, risking a loose $1.50. Option Traders consider Buying the Feb 35 Calls for less than $2. Option Sellers consider Selling the Jan 33.50 Puts for 0.50 premium.
05-Jan-16 09:46 ET	BLUEX	M Swing Bounce/Long Follow Up (36.86 +1.07) Nice breakout/gap up over $37 this morning...good for a gain of +1.50 points (Feb 35 Calls +50%; Jan 33.50 Puts +50%). Partial profit warranted along with tightening up balances stops to recent lows in the 34-area.
07-Jan-16 10:01 ET	BLUEX	M Swing Long/Bounce Follow Up (37.97 +1.82) Go figure...one of the worst stocks in the latter half of 2015 having a decent start here in Jan. Note the company came out after the close Wed with a bunch of fundamental data. Currently at 38, we have a +2.50 point gain to capitalize on. Balance stops along 35-breakeven.
13-Jan-16 12:27 ET	BLUEX	M Swing Long Balance Follow Up (39.50 +0.89) Impressive relative strength here this week as Buyers are willing to lift this Dept store back to its December highs/50-day ma's near the 39/40 area. That's currently a +4 point gain on our Long from the 35-level back during the late-December sell-off. Partial profits into this 39/40 resistance zone are warranted if you can. Balance stop on rest along the 36-level.

BLUE CHIP TRADER

FSLR (+10%):
On December 23rd, the stock had a strong gap up the week prior on headlines of the US Govt extending solar tax credits. This leader among Solar stocks consolidating in a narrow range the next few days, allowing for a Long entry on its December 23 breakout near $66.

A big gap up is usually an area of support, so I opted to hold onto it above the 64/65 zone for a potential year-end mark-up. Fast forward to January where Solar stocks displayed relative strength against the broader market drop. The next day we got lucky with a Goldman Sachs Upgrade that propelled the stock as high as $72 for a +5 point (+10%) profit.

23-Dec-15 09:50 ET	BLUEX	FSLR Long Candidate (66.26 +1.27) Leading Solar stock looks ready to push into higher ground after a 5-day range here. Long some here at the 66-level, risking about $2. Option Traders consider Buying Jan 62.50 Calls for around $5 or less.
05-Jan-16 09:40 ET	BLUEX	FSLR Swing Long Follow Up (71.46 +4.74) Thanks to a Goldman upgrade, our Swing Long balance in this leading Solar name is up a nice +10% with price gapping up over $71. (Long Jan 62.50 Calls +70%). The 2014 highs were 73/74, so that could act as minor resistance if the stock continues higher, however, I'm banking a decent chunk of what I have and tightening the stop on the remainder up to breakeven around $65/66. It's a "free-ride" on the rest from here. Option traders may want to consider Selling Covered Calls...next week's Jan Expiration 73's are selling for +1.25 premium.

BLUE CHIP TRADER

UA Swing Long/Bounce (+80%):
On January 11, UA was downgraded pre-market which resulted in price further extending its recent decline. After the open, the -7% drop seems a bit excessive, so I was willing to start buying some on weakness below the $70-mark for a potential bounce back. The broader market was also looking very short-term oversold with its own breakdown, so I figured UA would benefit from a broader market bounce as well. Fast forward 2 days later and price neared the 74-level for almost a +4 point gain.

11-Jan-16 10:07 ET	BLUEX	UA Swing Long/Bounce Candidate (69.02 -5.98) Seems a bit excessive with a -7% drop to multi-month lows on just one downgrade; granted it was from a Tier One firm (MS lowering their target from $103 to $62). If the broader market comes roaring back this week, I would think UA easily reclaims today's bearish gap back up to the 74 area. I'm willing to scale in Long into 1/3 size here in the 68/69's for now. Risking about $3 for now. Will consider adding later on depending on how it plays out today. Option Sellers can sell this week's Jan 67.50 Puts for a $1 premium and chance to own stock at 66.50. Option Buyers look into the Feb 65 Calls for less than $9. Earnings scheduled for Jan 28.
13-Jan-16 9:52 ET	BLUEX	UA Swing Long/Bounce Follow Up (72.61 +0.46) Probing 2-day highs for a gain of approximately +3.50 points on this week's pick up below the $70-level. If you sold this week's Jan 67.50 Puts for $1, that's a +80% gain. Trim some profits if you can into strength. Balance stop along 69-breakeven area is prudent. ext target is a gap close up near 75, followed by the 77/78 area (20-day ma).

BLUE CHIP TRADER

KMI Swing Long (+8%):
Coming off a classic “reversal” day on December 21, this oversold Energy name looked ripe for a rally heading into the Christmas holiday. The next day I jumped aboard strength above the prior day’s high in the low-to-mid $15-area. By the next day on December 23, the bounce had price trading over $16.50 for a +1.50 point gain or +8%.

22-Dec-15 9:46 ET	BLUEX	KMI Long/Bounce Candidate (15.37 +0.23) Pipelines showing some strength this morning as Crude bounces a little. KMI managed to reverse yesterday after probing the early December low along the $15-level and could be due for a decent recovery effort. Long some here in the low-mid 15's, risking about $1 (yesterday's lows) for now.
22-Dec-15 11:36 ET	BLUEX	KMI Long Follow Up (15.88 +0.73) Strong trend up morning so far with about a +3% gain on our Long. Partial profit is warranted if you took on size as price recovers along $15 support level. Balance stops back along $15-level seem sufficient.
23-Dec-15 10:06 ET	BLUEX	KMI Swing Long Follow Up (16.07 +0.75) Probing the $16-level for a +0.65 gain or +4% on yesterday's pick-up as it reversed off $15-support. It's simply a matter of "trimming and trailing" from here. Keeping the remaining balance along $15 area for a Swing.

BLUE CHIP TRADER

PXD Swing Long (+10 pts):
Another beaten down Energy name during mid-December, PXD was looking ripe for a bounce during Christmas week. During the afternoon of December 21, price extended its sell-off further and I advocated starting a small position for a Swing overnight in the $116’s. Buyers emerged the next day for an initial push up towards $120 for a +3 partial profit. Holding a small remainder overnight again allowed for as much as a +10 point gain as price closed near $126 on December 23.

21-Dec-15 14:43 ET	BLUEX	PXD Swing Bounce Candidate (116.52 -0.476) Buying small here in the 116's, looking for some sort of bounce back after its recent multi-day sell-off has it at fresh multi-month lows. Risking a loose $2-3 points. Option Traders consider Buying Jan 115 Calls for less than $8.
22-Dec-15 11:06 ET	BLUEX	PXD Swing Long/Bounce Follow up (118.85 +3.14) Solid bounce back among Energy/Nat Gas stocks so far...PXD in the 119's is good for almost a +3 point gain from yesterday's Long in the 116's. Partial profits into strength warranted here this morning. Balance stop raised up near yesterday's lows.
23-Dec-15 10:23 ET	BLUEX	PXD Swing Long/Bounce Follow up (121.00 +4.45) 121's should be good for at least a +4 point gain (about +30% on the Jan 115 Calls), so partial profits are warranted if you haven't done so already on this bounce. Balance stops raised to breakeven vicinity. The 124/126 area looks ideal for a next target, followed by 129/130.

BLUE CHIP TRADER

UPS SWING LONG (+6 pts):
The stock was trading approximately -8% off its December high and looking short-term oversold when I began to notice it reverse off its Sept support zone around the $96-level. It looked ripe for a bounce so I bought a little bit for a counter-trend trade. By the next day, price was up +3 points. 2 days after our entry, it was lifting back above its 200-day moving averages and closing the prior week’s Bearish Gap with a move above $100. On December 17, UPS gapped open above 102 in reaction to its peer FDX’s earnings, allowing for me to book as much as a +6 point profit in 4 days.

14-Dec-15 11:33 ET	BLUEX	UPS Swing Long/Bounce Candidate (96.18 -1.28) A huge beneficiary of on-line shopping sales this holiday season, UPS took a hit on Friday with headlines claiming it's struggling to keep up with high demand. With price sinking lower again today, now closing that early Sept bullish gap at the 96-level, I like it as a name to consider "scaling into" on weakness. Only 1/3 size still, but I'll look to add if it drops further this week to 95/94 support along July/Aug lows for sure. Option Traders look into either Buying the Jan 95 Calls for less than 3.74 or Sell this week's December Expiration 95 Puts for $1, with the chance to own stock at $94 come Friday.
15-Dec-15 09:45 ET	BLUEX	UPS Swing Bounce/Long Follow Up (98.95 +1.08) Nice recovery effort after finding support at the 96-level yesterday, currently good for almost +3 pts (or +35% on Long Jan 95 Calls; +75% on Short December 95 Puts) as it rallies back to last Friday's bearish gap along 99. Partial profit into strength is warranted along with tightening up balance stop to yesterday's low near 96. Next target is a gap close back above the $100-mark.
16-Dec-15 15:34 ET	BLUEX	UPS Swing Long/Bounce Follow Up (100.60 +1.70) Peer FDX reports earnings after the close, so prudent to lock in another partial profit into this late-day strength over 100.50 for a solid +4 point gain (+60% on Long Jan Calls; nearly 90% on Short Dec Puts). Balance stops on rest at breakeven.

BLUE CHIP TRADER

FB BOUNCE/LONG (+8 pts):
The selling pressures in January had pushed FB down to its 200-day moving averages around the 92/94 area, making it a “must-watch” on my radar for a trading opportunity. On January 20, price took an early morning dive of -5% to probe the $90-mark. With the rest of the market in a very short-term oversold state, I liked the prospects of scaling into the stock for a potential bounce back.

By midday, it was looking like the entire market had “bottomed out” and was rallying strong, so I added more to my FB Long in the $91’s. It paid off handsomely the next day for a solid +5 point gain and another 3 points the next day with price at $98.

20-Jan-16 10:41 ET	BLUEX	FB Bounce/Long Candidate (89.79 -5.47) Cracked below its 200-day sma this morning and slipping below the $90-level for the first time since Sept/Oct. Broader market very oversold (again) with my A/D line back at deep oversold territory and could attempt a bounce at some point today. Buying a little (less than 1/2 size) here in the 89's, risking about $2. Option Traders consider the Feb 90 Calls for less than $6.
20-Jan-16 13:30 ET	BLUEX	FB Long Follow Up - Adding (91.67 -3.58) Good relative strength with potential for afternoon strength if the market rallies back. Adding a little to my Long here mid-91's. Still risking about $2 or so.
21-Jan-16 12:17 ET	BLUEX	FB Swing Long Follow Up (95.75 +1.40) Nice recovery here as price lifts back towards Tuesday's high. Along 95-area that's about a +5 point gain (+40% on Feb 90 Calls) on yesterday's scale-in between 89/91. Partial profit into strength is warranted along with tightening up balances stop to breakeven zone.
22-Jan-16 14:02 ET	BLUEX	FB Swing Long Follow Up (97.61 +3.45) Sitting along this week's/Tuesday's highs in the mid-97's, good for a gain of about +7 points (about +50% on our Feb 90 Calls) on our scale in from 89/91. Trimming another partial profit is warranted, along with tightening up the remaining swing balance t to the 94 area. Note Earnings are next Wed, Jan 27. A push towards $100 beforehand would be ideal.

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AMZN Swing Long (+65 points/+13%):
I already had AMZN on my radar for a bounce attempt after an early February distribution took its price back below the $500-mark for an approximate -20% loss in a week’s time. When headlines of a $2 Billion Buyback hit the tape overnight, I focused my attention much closer on the 60-min timeframe to find a good low-risk entry point to Buy. The broader market itself was in a short-term oversold state at the time and once AMZN began to display relative strength by trading back into positive territory, I knew I wanted to participate in the upside potential. I picked up some of the March 480 Calls around $24 which returned an approximate +200% return a week later with price reaching the $560-level.

11-Feb-16 10:00 ET	BLUEX	AMZN Long Candidate (494.11 +3.63) Buyers defending the initial opening weakness in the broader market. AMZN announced a buy-back of $2B in stock last night, which if the market turns back up could help it launch back over the $500-mark. Buying some into this Opg push back into positive territory over 490-area. Option Traders consider the March 480 Calls for $24 or less. Risking about $5.
11-Feb-16 12:05 ET	BLUEX	AMZN Long Follow Up (496.50 +6.02) Solid relative strength today as price manages to hold above its Opening Range/Neutral zone along the 490-area. If this market manages to stage a recovery this afternoon, I suspect AMZN leads the pack higher with a rip over 505. Still Long a little bit of the March Calls as I like it above 484/487 zone.
12-Feb-16 9:34 ET	BLUEX	AMZN Swing/Overnight Long Follow Up (514.00 +10.18) Nice opening pop to fresh highs on the week up near 514, warranting locking in a partial profit on yesterday's Long near 495 for nearly a +20 point gain (March 480 Calls +50%). Balance stops tightened to breakeven zone.
16-Feb-16 9:48 ET	BLUEX	AMZN Swing Long Follow Up (522.48 +15.40) Reaching a high of 522 is good for a gain of +28 points (March 480 Calls +90%) on last week's pick up below the $500-mark. Locking in a partial profit into this early strength is warranted along with tightening up on stops to better than breakeven. Ideally, the $500-mark won't be re-tested anytime soon. Next target is 545/547.
17-Feb-16 13:03 ET	BLUEX	AMZN Swing Long Balance Follow Up - Scale & Trail (536.37 +15.27) Another solid push higher as the broader market attempts to recover off the Feb lows. Currently sitting with a gain of +40 points (+75% on the March 480 Calls) on the remaining small balance. It's simply a matter of "scaling out" profits into strength and trailing a loose enough stop on the balance (above breakeven) from here. Look at the Jan low and 200-day ma's near 540/547 as next resistance zone.

BLUE CHIP TRADER

XLE Swing Long (+4 points/+8%):
On February 11, the Energy complex was trading at lows on the week with Crude itself notching a fresh low below its January low. When OPEC headlines about a production cut hit the tape, Buyers came rushing in off the sidelines during the afternoon. It was simply a matter of buying up recent weakness with a possible “double-bottom” support pattern playing out for a Swing Long. The reversal generated enough momentum for me to capture a +4 point gain or 8% as price rallied back to its early Feb highs during the next 3 days.

11-Feb-16 15:14 ET	BLUEX	XLE Swing Long Candidate (53.75 -0.34) Time to join in the fun among the Energy complex...I was already eyeing it for an afternoon Long based on this week's sell-off in Crude back its towards Jan lows for a "double-bottom" to pan out, but these OPEC headlines seem to be enough of a catalyst to consider buying some for a Swing. Long some of this Energy ETF, XLE, here in the mid-upper 53's, risking about $1.50 for now.
12-Feb-16 11:13 ET	BLUEX	XLE Swing Long Follow Up (55.00 +1.14) Energy complex making a push at morning highs which yields a +1.25 point gain on yesterday's afternoon pick up from 53.75. Worthy of trimming a partial profit into strength and tightening up the stop on a balance to the 53's.
16-Feb-16 9:32 ET	BLUEX	XLE Swing Long Follow Up (55.95 +0.67) Above 56-level is good for a gain of +2.25 points and warrants a partial profit into early strength. Balance stop on rest at 53.75/54.00 breakeven zone.
17-Feb-16 10:51 ET	BLUEX	XLE Swing Long Follow Up - Scaling & Trailing (57.30 +1.47) Another nice lift off last week's lows yield a +3.50 point gain from our 53.75 Long entry. Still a little bit more upside to the 58 area with the Feb highs and the 50-day ma's coming in play, but it's prudent to scale out some more profits and tighten up on a trailing stop if you can.

BLUE CHIP TRADER

WMT Swing Long (+4 points/+6.5%):
On February 18 WMT responded to earnings with a gap down to its 50-day moving average zone. The stock has been out-performing the broader market since last December and the -3.5% drop to a key technical level made it an ideal candidate for me to start scaling in Long into weakness below the 63-level. Once the initial selling dried up in response to earnings, buyers once again flooded into one of the few leading stocks in the market so far this year. Within the next 5 days, I captured a solid +4 point profit.

18-Feb-16 9:42 ET	BLUEX	WMT Bounce/Scalp Candidate (63.08 -3.03) A "blue chip" dropping back to its 50-day sma? Always worth a try to Buy in my experience. Long some here along the 62/63 vicinity, risking about $1 or so.
18-Feb-16 13:09 ET	BLUEX	WMT Long/Bounce Follow Up (64.14 -1.97) Took some time, but Buyers defended weakness below the 50-day sma along the 63-level as expected and we now have price at session highs approaching 64-level for a +1 point profit. As always, taking some off the table is prudent, along with tightening up the stop on the remaining balance up to session lows/breakeven. Next target is its recent Feb lows along the 65-level.
22-Feb-16 9:33 ET	BLUEX	WMT Swing Long Balance Follow Up (65.28 +0.62) Nice pop above 2-day highs back into last week's Earnings Gap Zone, currently good for a +2 point gain with price at 65.25. Partial profit into strength warranted along with tightening the remaining balance up to breakeven near 63.

BLUE CHIP TRADER

DIS Swing Long (+7 points/+8%):
This Long set-up was right out of my webinar called “My Favorite Patterns For Earnings Season.” In a nutshell, I look at just how big the reaction is to earnings and take that into context of its bigger picture trend. DIS had been in a downtrend for a loss of -25% during the prior 3-months. Its “earnings gap down” of -4% to a fresh 52-week low got me interested in Buying some of it to play a bounce over the next few days. Buying into signs of a rally through the 89-area proved to be the right call as price retraced back to its Feb highs along 96 during the next week.

10-Feb-16 9:35 ET	BLUEX	DIS Bounce Radar (87.75 -4.61) Broader market starting positive and with DIS extending its 2-month -25% correction off the Nov peak by another -3% this morning, I suspect some sort of bounce/reversal in the works. I'll consider buying small if it can turn back through that Opening Range in the 88's. Option Traders consider the March 85.00 Calls for $4 or less.
10-Feb-16 9:39 ET	BLUEX	DIS Long Candidate (88.80 -3.51) Fast action as no sooner did I post the radar comment did Buyers reverse price back above the 88-open. Worth a try for a Swing Bounce/Long here as I figure a -28% correction has factored in the earnings results. Overall risking about $3 on less than 1/2 normal size.
10-Feb-16 14:57 ET	BLUEX	DIS Long/Bounce Follow Up (89.42 -2.90) With a decent reversal this morning in response to earnings, we managed to capture about a +1.5 point move as price traded through the 88-area after the initial opening dip down to 86/87. As I noted previously, with this "blue-chip" down -28% off its November high of $120, I like the idea of owning some of it for a Swing Bounce now that earnings results are behind us. Next target is the 93-vicinity near its 20-day ma's. Ideally, we won't have to deal with a re-test of today's lows near 86/87, but I'll face that road if and when it comes to decide to either cut it loose or add more.
11-Feb-16 15:19 ET	BLUEX	DIS Swing Long Follow Up (90.39 +1.55) Yesterday's pick up in the 88's is good for about a +1.25 point gain here as Buyers clear Wed's high along the 90-level. If you can, trim some profits into strength and tighten up on the balance stop towards your breakeven. Otherwise, I'm eyeing the 92/93 zone as the next target.
17-Feb-16 12:57 ET	BLUEX	DIS Swing Long/Bounce Follow up (96.00 +3.09) Been giving the balance on this one a little bit more time and room since we picked it up in the 88's last week. Initially I locked in about a +1.25 point partial gain on the recovery back over 90-level and trailing a loose stop on the balance since then. Currently Buyers are rushing back into the stock as it clears last week's high (93.20) and breaking a multi-week downtrend line in the process. Currently the gain is approx +7 points (March 85 Calls +100%), warranting another partial profit and tightening the remaining balance stop up over breakeven near 90-level. Next target zone above the late-Jan/early Feb highs is the 50-day ema/sma zone near 99/100.