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Options Volatility Analysis Ahead of Earnings-ACM, CSCO, ROST, BBY seeing high relative volatility
Since the options market acts as a good gauge of expected future stock movement, this Special Report highlights select stocks of interest that are expected to show increased volatility around their earnings releases. While it is not a big surprise that stocks are expected to experience greater volatility around their earnings releases, this report is intended to give an idea of how the expected volatility in these names rank in comparison to their historical volatility (actual observed movement in the past), and point out some stocks that could see increased volatility. The table below uses options market implied volatility to determine the current expectations for a potential one-day move in the stock (based on a one standard deviation move). We'd note that a stock can be expected to remain within a one standard deviation range about 2/3 (67%) of the time, and to remain within a two standard deviation range roughly 95% of the time. The historical volatility helps give an idea of how the stock has acted over the past 30 days and we provide a column showing the 1-day (1 std dev) move based on historical volatility. The percentage difference in implied volatility vs. historical volatility gives an idea of current volatility expectations compared to past (actual) stock movement. The stocks in the table below are sorted by largest anticipated one-day event percentage move to smallest expected move, then by the percentage difference between the implied and historical volatility.
Looking at next week's earnings calendar, names that jump out that have high implied volatility vs historical volatility include ACM, CSCO, ROST, NTAP, IGT, BBY. This implies elevated expectations for near-term stock movement in these names. The table below summarizes options market expectations for volatility in select stocks reporting earnings next week.
| Stock |
Price |
Implied volatility |
**Historical volatility |
% Difference between implied and historical vol |
1-day move based on historical vol |
1-day event volatility* |
Earnings date |
Time |
| FENG |
$5.39 |
74% |
49% |
50% |
$0.97 |
18% |
13-Nov |
After Close |
| HIBB |
$13.88 |
74% |
41% |
81% |
$1.80 |
13% |
17-Nov |
Before Open |
| REXX |
$2.22 |
148% |
86% |
71% |
$0.27 |
12% |
14-Nov |
After Close |
| SSYS |
$20.56 |
70% |
57% |
23% |
$2.41 |
12% |
14-Nov |
Before Open |
| STNG |
$3.42 |
71% |
34% |
111% |
$0.39 |
11% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| VIAB |
$24.80 |
57% |
42% |
35% |
$2.79 |
11% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| IGT |
$23.80 |
61% |
26% |
134% |
$2.36 |
10% |
14-Nov |
Before Open |
| FL |
$30.26 |
62% |
32% |
90% |
$2.95 |
10% |
17-Nov |
Before Open |
| ANF |
$12.43 |
65% |
47% |
39% |
$1.26 |
10% |
17-Nov |
Before Open |
| SFUN |
$4.48 |
61% |
45% |
37% |
$0.44 |
10% |
17-Nov |
Before Open |
| WPRT |
$3.03 |
86% |
82% |
6% |
$0.32 |
10% |
14-Nov |
After Close |
| DKS |
$26.65 |
57% |
41% |
39% |
$2.45 |
9% |
14-Nov |
Before Open |
| BBY |
$56.40 |
47% |
23% |
99% |
$4.41 |
8% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| SPLK |
$70.01 |
43% |
22% |
98% |
$5.43 |
8% |
16-Nov |
After Close |
| AAP |
$80.89 |
52% |
27% |
92% |
$6.85 |
8% |
14-Nov |
Before Open |
| SPB |
$104.79 |
49% |
28% |
73% |
$8.62 |
8% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| BSTI |
$11.89 |
64% |
38% |
69% |
$0.92 |
8% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| NTAP |
$46.42 |
36% |
17% |
114% |
$3.07 |
7% |
15-Nov |
After Close |
| BZH |
$20.69 |
45% |
24% |
90% |
$1.35 |
7% |
14-Nov |
After Close |
| YRD |
$42.25 |
80% |
49% |
64% |
$3.05 |
7% |
14-Nov |
After Close |
| JD |
$40.30 |
43% |
27% |
62% |
$2.87 |
7% |
13-Nov |
Before Open |
| NTES |
$305.08 |
42% |
37% |
13% |
$22.10 |
7% |
15-Nov |
After Close |
| ROST |
$65.25 |
30% |
12% |
146% |
$3.66 |
6% |
16-Nov |
After Close |
| QIWI |
$16.74 |
51% |
24% |
114% |
$0.93 |
6% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| GLOB |
$36.05 |
54% |
26% |
110% |
$2.25 |
6% |
16-Nov |
After Close |
| ANW |
$3.62 |
88% |
44% |
103% |
$0.21 |
6% |
15-Nov |
After Close |
| AMAT |
$56.13 |
37% |
18% |
99% |
$3.25 |
6% |
16-Nov |
After Close |
| GPS |
$27.10 |
44% |
23% |
93% |
$1.73 |
6% |
16-Nov |
After Close |
| PLCE |
$113.50 |
48% |
27% |
77% |
$6.59 |
6% |
15-Nov |
Before Open |
| KLIC |
$23.55 |
39% |
23% |
68% |
$1.41 |
6% |
14-Nov |
Before Open |
| AST |
$2.44 |
91% |
56% |
62% |
$0.15 |
6% |
14-Nov |
After Close |
| TGT |
$60.95 |
34% |
23% |
46% |
$3.63 |
6% |
15-Nov |
Before Open |
| SBH |
$16.10 |
50% |
37% |
36% |
$1.03 |
6% |
15-Nov |
Before Open |
| TSN |
$73.99 |
31% |
24% |
30% |
$4.32 |
6% |
13-Nov |
Before Open |
| MTSI |
$36.47 |
57% |
63% |
-10% |
$2.31 |
6% |
14-Nov |
After Close |
| MTOR |
$26.05 |
44% |
19% |
138% |
$1.30 |
5% |
15-Nov |
Before Open |
| TJX |
$69.88 |
27% |
14% |
98% |
$3.24 |
5% |
14-Nov |
Before Open |
| POST |
$79.01 |
29% |
17% |
68% |
$3.82 |
5% |
16-Nov |
After Close |
| AUPH |
$5.67 |
71% |
49% |
44% |
$0.30 |
5% |
14-Nov |
After Close |
| YY |
$88.78 |
50% |
35% |
41% |
$4.59 |
5% |
14-Nov |
After Close |
| SJM |
$104.52 |
26% |
20% |
31% |
$4.89 |
5% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| LB |
$49.26 |
42% |
37% |
16% |
$2.65 |
5% |
15-Nov |
After Close |
| ACM |
$35.40 |
31% |
10% |
228% |
$1.42 |
4% |
13-Nov |
Before Open |
| CSCO |
$33.95 |
24% |
11% |
117% |
$1.44 |
4% |
15-Nov |
After Close |
| JASO |
$7.96 |
46% |
34% |
38% |
$0.35 |
4% |
15-Nov |
Before Open |
| WMT |
$91.15 |
22% |
18% |
20% |
$3.30 |
4% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| BKE |
$18.98 |
46% |
46% |
-1% |
$0.84 |
4% |
17-Nov |
Before Open |
| BERY |
$57.78 |
24% |
12% |
98% |
$1.98 |
3% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| SPH |
$25.09 |
29% |
19% |
51% |
$0.73 |
3% |
16-Nov |
Before Open |
| LNG |
$49.87 |
29% |
23% |
28% |
$1.74 |
3% |
14-Nov |
Before Open |
| *The 1-day event volatility is the 1-day, 1-standard deviation move based on the implied 1-day event volatility. Based on current options prices, the underlying stock is expected to remain within a +/- 1 standard deviation range, about 2/3 of the time, and within a +/- 2 standard deviation range about 95% of the time. **Historical volatility is based on 30 day period stock price movement. |
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Data Source: LiveVolPro (www.livevolpro.com) We'd note these expectations are subject to change in the days leading up to the actual earnings release. Additionally, there may be factors other than earnings driving volatility levels.
-Blair Robicheaux The Special Reports column can be found on the Trading Ideas / Fundamental home page. To read past updates, click here to access the archive. On In Play, any content related to options trading can be searched for, and have alerts generated by, the "OPTNX" ticker. Your feedback is important to us -- please send comments to specialreports@briefing.com.
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