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The Week Ahead (BABA CIVI RBIO TKAI FOMX PRQR VKTX) To put it bluntly, the IPO market has been rather dull over the past month or so. That is all set to change next week, in dramatic fashion, when Alibaba's (BABA) record-setting IPO prices and opens for trading. The hype should rival Facebook's (FB) May, 18 2012 IPO, but BABA will certainly be hoping for a smoother entrance into the public markets. Given the prominence of the company and the various reports of insatiable demand for the deal, it seems a virtual given that BABA will price very well and open with a significant pop. As always, where it goes from there is more difficult to foresee.
What is crystal clear, however, is that this dominant company has been growing rapidly, has solid financials, and has the catalysts to keep driving growth. What also is clear is that there are meaningful risks to consider, which we lay out in our comprehensive preview below.
*New IPO Grading Table: In order to provide more clarity and insight into how we derive our grades for IPOs, we have included a new IPO Grading Table in the "Conclusion & Briefing.com Grade" section for our full IPO previews. This is not meant to be an all-inclusive list of all the factors used for grading purposes, but it does include some of the most prominent fundamental areas that we look at.
| Alibaba (BABA) |
Fundamental Grade: A- |
|
Lead Underwriters |
Shares Offered |
Expected Price Range |
Expected Deal Size |
Shares Outstanding/2014 Revenue (Growth y/y) |
Expected Trade Date |
| Credit Suisse, Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Citi |
320.1 M |
$60-$66 |
$20.2 B |
2.456B/$8.5B (+52%) | September 19 |
Co-Managers: HSBC, Mizuho, Pacific Crest, RBC, Stifel, Wells Fargo, BNP Paribas, Evercore, Raymond James, SunTrust Robinson Humphrey, CICC, DBS BankThe word that first comes to mind when describing Chinese e-commerce company Alibaba (BABA) is "enormous." Dominant is a close second. There has been no shortage of attention given to BABA's sheer size, but, since that is such a major part of the story and investment rationale, it's worth discussing up front. To say that BABA is a large company is an almost amusing understatement. Here are some numbers to put it's size into perspective: For the twelve months ended June 30, 2014, its Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) was $296 billion, it processed 14.5 billion orders, and it had 279 million active buyers. To put that into perspective, Ebay (EBAY) and Amazon (AMZN) -- the two closest U.S. counterparts -- achieved GMV in the $75-$80 billion range during their most recent fiscal years. BABA nearly does that amount during one of its busier quarters. In China, competition is a mere annoyance at this point. During its road show, it commented that it holds roughly 95% of China's consumer-to-consumer market and more than 50% of the business-to-consumer market. One of the closest competitors is JD.com (JD), which launched its U.S. IPO on May 22, 2014. Its GMVin 2013 was about $5.3 billion, a drop in the bucket for a company like BABA. What is also very impressive about BABA is its growth and profitability. Although its revenue base is already huge at nearly $8.5 billion, its topline still grew by over 50% last year. A key to how BABA is able to grow at that high of a rate, off of an already large base, has much to do with the size of the Chinese economy and population, and the trends within. The total addressable market there is, once again, enormous. The consumer economy in China is pegged at $3.4 trillion. There's an estimated 618 million internet users (the entire U.S. population is ~315 million) of which only half have ever shopped online. According to BABA, online shopping accounts for only 9% of total consumption, suggesting that e-commerce companies in China have only scratched the surface. So, considering the points above, it comes as no surprise that interest and demand in this IPO will be sky-high. It was reported earlier this week that there was already sufficient demand to cover the entire deal. It has also been reported that BABA was expecting crowds of about 500 investors to attend its road shows in New York, but, the crowds swelled upwards to 800, forcing overflow into neighboring rooms. There is little doubt that BABA's IPO will price well and it is very likely that it will open for trading with a sharp pop above the IPO price.Overall, BABA offers a unique opportunity to invest in a global powerhouse, directly tied to the massive Chinese economy, with more runway for growth as consumers there continue to migrate towards e-commerce, as it continues to monetize its mobile apps, and as it develops cross-border opportunities to bring foreign sellers to its platform. As compelling as the opportunity is,though, the risks are also quite stark. Among the chief concerns are its dubious corporate structure which gives U.S. investors no say and no economic interest in the actual company, its string of recent acquisitions across various industries it has no history operating in, slowing topline growth rates as the company becomes more mature, and, a rich valuation. Closer Look at BABABABA has been described as a combination of Amazon (AMZN) and EBay (EBAY), which is accurate to a certain extent as its C2C and B2B online and mobile platforms are its largest sources of revenue, accounting for 82% of the total business. Recently, though, the company has been expanding into many other areas through acquisitions, raising concerns that margins will take a hit as it ramps up new businesses, and, whether BABA has lost some of its discipline. We'll touch on that more below, but first, here is a closer look at its core segments. - Taobao Marketplace: Translated to "Search for Treasure" in Chinese, this is BABA's consumer-to-consumer platform, akin to EBay (EBAY). BABA basically owns the C2C market with an estimated 95% share and GMV of RMB 1.2 T over the past twelve months. Buyers can look for anything from hard to find, one-of-a-kind items, to everyday household goods. They can chat with sellers through an instant messaging application and buyers can check seller ratings before deciding to make a purchase. Sellers can join for free, but with millions of products for sale and countless competitors, they must promote and market their items to have success. This is how BABA generates revenue here. In order to increase traffic, sellers can run promotions, decide which groups to target, choose how much they want to spend each day, how long to run the promotion, etc.
- Tmall: Tmall is often likened to Amazon (AMZN) as it's BABA's B2C business. With GMV of RMB 576 B over the past twelve months, it is China's largest third-party platform for brands and retailers. During its road show, BABA described Tmall as an "online version of 5th Ave in Manhattan", targeting upscale shoppers with money to spend. Both Chinese and international brands sell goods on Tmall. Retailers can use Tmall's analytical tools to track data such as unique visitors, page views, whether buyers came from mobile or non-mobile sources.
- Alibaba.com: Launching in 1999, this is BABA's original platform and is an online wholesale marketplace where global wholesalers and manufacturers supply buyers. It is now known as 1688.com. BABA founded Alibaba.com to help small exporters, primarily located in China, to reach international buyers. Revenue from Alibaba.com is primarily generated through the sale of its Gold Supplier membership, allowing wholesalers to host premium storefronts, with product listings, as well as value-added services such as product showcase, custom clearance, refund, and import/export business solutions.
These are BABA's core businesses, but, its business goes far beyond these three online banners. To complete the buying and selling process, BABA recognized that there needs to be logistics and a payment transaction service that consumers trust. So, in 2004 the company launched AliPay (similar to PayPal), which holds payments in an escrow account until the buyer is satisfied with the product received. With almost 80% of transactions facilitated through AliPay, this service helped BABA explode into the company it is today, but, as some may be aware, there has been a lot of controversy surrounding it. AliPay Spin-Off ControversyIn 2010, Jack Ma decided to spin-off AliPay to a separate entity, while keeping a 46% stake in Alipay. As you know by now, YHOO is a large shareholder in BABA, establishing its stake in 2005. The controversy arose when YHOO disclosed to its shareholders that it was not informed of the decision to spin of Alipay until five weeks after the transaction was consummated. Jack Ma argued that it was a necessary move, in order to comply with new Chinese regulations for 3rd party online payments companies, requiring the removal of foreign capital. Interestingly, it appears those new regulations still have not been implemented. Fast forward to today, and Jack Ma still holds a 46% stake in AliPay -- specifically, through its parent company Small and Micro Financial Services -- and in the BABA prospectus, it is noted that Small and Micro Financial Services will raise equity funding to expand. Therefore, it appears as if an AliPay IPO could be coming in the near future in China. The bottom line, though, is that the controversy on how the spin-off was handled underscores one of the biggest risks with investing in BABA. Not only will U.S. investors not have any say in major strategic decisions, but, they may not even be aware they are happening -- even if you have a 40% stake in the company like YHOO. Busy AcquirerThis bring us back to a point we made at the beginning of this section. BABA has not been shy about acquiring companies. During its road show, BABA said that it expects lower margins going forward as it invests in new businesses. Here is a run-down of some of its most recent acquisitions: - 4/29/13: BABA acquires an 18% stake in Weibo (WB), then a part of Sina (SINA), for $586 million.
- 7/16/13: BABA acquires an undisclosed stake in Qyer.com, a Chinese travel website.
- 9/25/13: The company acquires cloud-storage company Kanbox, amount not disclosed.
- 2/10/14: After taking a 28% stake in online mapping company AutoNavi in May 2013, it acquires the remaining portion for $1.3 billion.
- 3/12/14: BABA buys a 60% stake in ChinaVision Media Group for $804 million.
- 3/20/14: The company acquires video call company TangoMe for $215 million.
- 3/21/14: Invests $692 million in Intime Retail Group, a Chinese department store operator.
Deal & Corporate Structure Raising Some Flags By now, you've probably already heard this at least a few times, but just in case.... With BABA expected to raise up to $24 billion (including the over-allotment for underwriters), it is poised to become the largest IPO ever, surpassing Visa's (V) $19.7 billion offering in 2010. Unless it is increased prior to its pricing on the evening of September 18, the deal will consist of 320.1 million ADS, with each ADS representing one share. The company will be selling 123.1 million ADS and selling shareholders will be selling 197.0 million ADS. On that topic, Yahoo's (YHOO) large stake in BABA has been widely-publicized, and has been a major positive catalyst for the stock for some time leading up to this IPO. Prior to this IPO, YHOO had a 22.4% stake in BABA, but the company will be unloading 121.7 million shares of its 523.6 million holding, dropping its stake down to 16.3%. At $66/share, YHOO will be raising just over $8.0 billion, leaving an equity value of $26.5 billion (as of 9/9/14, YHOO's market cap was $40.7 billion). YHOO's considerable ownership position receives most of the attention, but, it is interesting to note that another company actually has a much larger position in BABA. Japan-based SoftBank (SFTBY) -- which, coincidentally is not a bank, but rather a communications company -- owns 797.7 million shares and will be holding on to all of them. Switching gears, there has been plenty of hand-wringing over how this deal is structured, and the risks that come along with it. It may come as a surprise to learn that BABA considered launching its IPO in Hong Kong, but, because Hong Kong regulators refused to accept its governance structure, it went with a U.S-based IPO. BABA is structured as a partnership of 27 insiders, including owner and founder Jack Ma, and Jack Ma will essentially have complete control over the company and who is elected to the Board of Directors.That is not the only concern, unfortunately. BABA also must use an arcane legal structure called a variable interest entity, or VIE, required by the Chinese government that allows for foreign ownership in internet related companies. In essence, an investor who purchases shares of BABA is actually only buying a Cayman Island based holding company that has rights to BABA's profits, not any direct ownership of the assets or company itself. Of course, the same holds true of buying shares of Baidu (BIDU), Yoku.com (YOKU), 21Vianet Group (VENT), and other China-based stocks, but there are clear risks in buying shares in these entities. For example, there is no guarantee that the structure will be found to be legal by Chinese law, and in fact, that has happened before. In 2012, China's Supreme Court invalidated a VIE structure used by Misheng Bank, and in 1998, the Chinese government found China Unicom's structure to be illegal. Of course, the odds of this happening to BABA are very slim, given BABA's impact on the Chinese economy. A Checkered PastAnother surprising fact is that BABA once traded on Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index, but, the company was ultimately de-listed in 2012. Its 2007 IPO "marked the top", so to speak, as the stock cratered by some 55% as the financial crisis struck and as its financial results were less than impressive. Original investors were left holding the bag as Jack Ma cashed in, catapulting him to the top of China's wealthiest list. Naturally, investors may be wondering, "has Jack Ma picked the top once again?" Throwing some fuel on the fire -- at least for prospective investors of this IPO -- were his recent comments that "investors come third", in terms of priorities, after customers and employees. Without question, BABA's financials are very strong right now, but, the aforementioned deal structure and this botched Hong Kong IPO a few years ago is a bit disconcerting. Financials & Outlook
|
FY12 | FY13 |
FY14 | Three Months Ended June 30, 2014 |
|
Revenue |
RMB 20.0 B | RMB 34.5 B | RMB 52.5 B | RMB 15.8 B; $2.5 B |
|
Revenue Growth (Y/Y) |
-- | +73% | +52% | +46% |
| Income from Operations | RMB 5.0B | RMB 10.8 B | RMB 24.9 B | RMB 6.8 B; $1.1 B |
| Operating Margin | 25% | 31.3% | 47.7% | 43.0% | | Free Cash Flow | RMB 8.8 B | RMB 19.7 B | RMB 32.3 B | RMB 10.6 B; $1.7 B | | Cash & Cash Equivalents | RMB 16.9 B | RMB 30.4 B | RMB 33.0 B | -- | | Long Term Debt | 0 | RMB 22.5 B | RMB 30.7 B | -- | | Active Buyers | 123 M | 172 M | 255 M | 279 M | | Total Gross Merchandise Value (GMV) | RMB 178 B | RMB 294 B | RMB 430 B | RMB 501 B | Sometimes, a highly-touted IPO with a lot of hype doesn't have the financials to match the buzz. That isn't the case here as BABA's financials are very solid. Revenue is still growing at a fast clip, although the rate of growth has slipped. As its revenue base becomes larger and larger, that should not come as a surprise. Investors just need to be aware that BABA's days of hyper-growth are behind it and it is a more mature company today. The upside of this is that the company is already profitable, and has been for some time. It also generates plenty of free cash flow. From a business model standpoint, its decision to not house inventory and to work with outside logistics service providers has been a key driver to its profitability. This asset-light model differs from AMZN's approach, which owns and operates distribution centers. In fact, BABA has a 48% ownership stake in China Smart Logistics, its main shipping company. We do have one main concern, though. Its operating margin and EBITDA margin has been sliding of late and the company commented during its road show presentation that it expects further slippage in margin as it invests in new businesses. This is the price of its acquisition spree as it looks to keep revenue growing briskly. Looking at the numbers, operating margin has gone from 47.9% in 2Q14 (ending Sept), to 47% in 3Q14, to 45.3% in 4Q14 and then 43.0% for the most recent quarter ended June 30, 2014. That's a fairly significant dip in a matter of just four quarters and explains why its year/year operating income growth has dropped from 74% in 2Q14 to the mid 20% range over the past two quarters. Generally speaking, though, its margins are very impressive still.
| | 4Q13 |
1Q14 | 2Q14 |
3Q14 | 4Q14 | 1Q15 |
| Operating Margin % |
51.3% | 50.3% | 47.9% | 47.0% | 45.3% | 43.4% |
| Adjusted EBITDA Margin % |
56.6% | 56.5% | 59.4% | 60.0% | 57.2% | 54.4% |
| Operating Income Growth (Y/Y) | +228% | +131% | NMF | +74% | +22% | +26% |
The table above illustrates the current trends in operating and EBITDA margins, and the year/year growth rates in operating income. As you can see, operating income growth has tailed off sharply.
Taking a closer look at its 1Q15 results, revenue climbed by 46% year to RMB 15.8 billion, or, $2.5 billion. BABA states that the growth was mainly driven by its commerce retail businesses (Taobao, Tmall). More specifically, GMV transacted on Taobao Marketplace increased 33% and GMV transacted on Tmall grew by 80.7%. It also says "our revenue growth rate will likely decline as our revenue grows to higher levels." Again, not surprising, but just another reminder that this is business no longer in the early stages of its growth cycle. Moving down the income statement, its Cost of Revenue jumped by 68% to RMB 4.6 billion, Product Development costs surged by 92% to RMB 1.9 billion, and Sales & Marketing expense spiked by 70% to RMB 1.2 billion. Overall, its operating costs were up 74% year/year and accounted for 49% of revenue compared to 41% in the year ago period. Operating income still increased by 26% year/year due to the 46% growth in revenue. Mobile Monetization: Improving mobile monetization is one of BABA's key objectives, and that has been moving in the right direction. As of June 30, 2014, the company had 188 million mobile MAUs (monthly avg user) and GMV generated from mobile devices was RMB 501 billion, up 45% year/year. Nearly a third of its total GMV now comes from mobile sources. Furthermore, its mobile monetization rate is steadily improving. For June 30, 2014, its mobile monetization rate was 1.49%, up considerably from 0.58% in the year ago period. BABA expects to continue approaching its non-mobile monetization rate of 3.03%. This is key because one of its core pillars of growth is to capitalize on the world's largest mobile user base of ~500 million users, many of which are still newcomers to purchasing goods via their devices. Valuation Tables
In a recent WSJ report, it was noted that investment banks' earnings forecasts put its valuation at a 20% discount to Tencent's valuation, based on current pricing expectations. That does provide some comfort for those concerned about getting fleeced on this deal, but, the metrics shown below certainly don't suggest this will be a steal of a deal. Investors will still be asked to pay a handsome price. BABA's IPO is slated to price within a range of $60-$66, but, the odds of it actually trading at the midpoint of the range when it opens is almost nil given the incredible interest and demand for the IPO. Therefore, we wanted to provide a look at what its valuation would be at certain price points.
| Share Price |
Market Cap | P/E* | Trailing P/S* |
Estimated 1-Yr P/S** |
|
$70 | $172.6 B | 45.8x | 20.4x | 14.6x |
|
$75 | $184.9 B | 49.0x | 21.8x | 15.6x |
| $80 | $197.2 B | 52.3x | 23.3x | 16.6x |
| $85 | $209.5 B | 55.5x | 24.8x | 17.7x | | $90 | $221.9 B | 58.8x | 26.2x | 18.7x | | $95 | $234.2 B | 62.1x | 27.7x | 19.8x | | $100 | $246.5 B | 65.3x | 29.1x | 20.8x | *Based on FY14 (March 31) figures** Assuming revenue growth of 40%Valuation concerns don't figure to play a prominent role in the initial hysteria and trading action when BABA opens for trading on September 19. However, once the euphoria dissipates, and the momentum money has come and gone, valuation could be a factor in how the stock performs from an intermediate and longer term time-frame. Obviously, the higher BABA rockets when it opens for trading, the less favorable the risk-reward scenario becomes from an investment perspective. Some Other Stocks to Watch Ahead of BABA's IPOHow BABA prices and performs once it opens could have a broader impact on the stock market, and particularly, other Chinese and U.S. e-commerce companies. With that in mind, we wanted to provide a list of secondary plays that could move in sympathy with BABA's IPO. Some of the more prominent stocks that may move include: YHOO, AMZN, EBAY, GOOG, TWTR, FB, GRPN, JD, WB, BIDU, SINA. Lock-up Period Key DatesInvestors should be aware that following this deal, there could be a mountain of shares flooding the market once lock-up expiration dates expire. More specifically, there will be a total of over 2.01 billion shares available for sale, spread out between three different lock-up expiration dates:- After 91 days as of the date of its last prospectus (9/5/14), 8.1 million shares will be available for sale in the public market. That would be December 5, 2014.
- After 181 days as of the date of its last prospectus, 429.05 million shares will be available for sale in the public market. That would be March 5, 2015.
- After 366 days as of the date of its last prospectus, 1.58 billion shares will be available for sale in the public market. That would be September 7, 2015.
Key Points & Briefing.com Grade: A-There is a lot for investors to mull over when it comes to this IPO. Pretty much everyone, including us, is expecting this deal to price well and open with a sizable pop. How it performs after that is much more difficult to forecast. A better way of looking at it, then, would be to analyze whether BABA makes for a good longer-term investment from a fundamental basis. As we come to that conclusion, here are the key points that we considered: - BABA is a dominant force in China, essentially owning the online consumer-to-consumer market and enjoying 50% market share in the online business-to-consumer market. Its size and scale is a major competitive advantage. Because of the massive amount of product offered on its platforms, it provides a one-stop-shop for buyers; because of the hundreds of millions of potential buyers, sellers and brand names first inclination would be to use its services. It can also simply buy-out, or undercut, most would-be threats.
- Its growth rates are still strong, although growth is slowing. Investors would not be buying a company in the early stages of the growth curve. That is not to say, however, that there isn't plenty of room for growth for BABA. For instance, in China, online shopping only represents 8% of total consumption and is projected to grow at a CAGR of 36% over the next couple of years. Also, consumers there are increasingly using mobile devices to purchase goods and services and BABA has been making strides in monetizing its mobile base.
- One of its best fundamental attributes is its profitability. Thanks to its "asset light" model, in which it has zero inventory costs and low traffic acquisition costs, BABA has been generating healthy profits and cash flow for years. That is something its U.S.-based peer, Amazon (AMZN), can not boast of.
- The most prominent fundamental concern is its sliding operating and adjusted EBITDA margins. The company has been very active in acquiring businesses over the past few years, and the investments in these businesses has taken a bit of a toll on margins. BABA expects further erosion going forward, too. It should be noted, though, that its margins are still very strong.
- Some may view its valuation as palatable, if not attractive, given its stature and the fact that this company is profitable and cash flow positive. To be sure, a premium valuation is warranted here, and, valuation is unlikely to play a role in how its IPO performs out of the gate. Assuming it opens with a sharp pop above its IPO price, its valuation could come under question more down the road, especially when investors realize its margins are going in the wrong direction.
- Few investors and traders are going to be thinking about BABA's corporate structure, but U.S. investors should still be aware of this risk. A very high-profile example of this risk came to fruition just a few years ago when YHOO was blind-sided by Jack Ma's decision to spin-off AliPay, causing YHOO shares to sell-off 12% that day. Jack Ma will retain complete control over BABA and U.S. investors have no stake in the actually company, just a variable interest entity set up in the Cayman Islands.
- Another factor investors likely won't consider is that there will be a mountain of shares becoming available for sale over the coming year as lock-up dates expire: 2.01 billion to be more exact. That is a lot of supply to soak up, and the stock will face headwinds as these lock-up expiration dates expire.
- Chinese stocks have been performing well of late, including Baidu (BIDU), Weibo (WB), and JD.com (JD) -- three stocks that will be tied to BABA. That is a good omen for BABA's IPO.
As you can see just from the mere length of this preview, there are many factors to consider, but, we'll boil it all down to this: BABA is an exciting and compelling opportunity and we believe it is worthy of a place in investors' portfolios. However, the risks (slipping margins, slowing revenue growth, valuation, corporate structure) make us a little cautious on it. Therefore, while having some skin in the game looks like a promising longer term opportunity, investors' should caution against getting caught up in the hype and emotion and use a sound capital allocation strategy. In other words, getting overly aggressive greatly magnifies the risk of an already riskier asset.
| IPO Grading Category | Negative | Neutral/Average | Positive
| Deal Specifics/Structure
| X |
|
| Current Growth Rates |
|
| X | | Growth Outlook |
|
| X | | Profitability |
|
| X | | Valuation |
| X |
| | Peer Performance/Current Environment |
|
| X |
New ICON: We wanted to alert you to a subtle change and a new "Notable" icon in this section of our "The Week Ahead" report. Our goal is to provide more in-depth previews on the IPOs that we believe are highest in quality and/or will generate the most interest from investors and traders. You will find those previews in the section above.
However, while the IPOs contained in the "Other IPOs On The Calendar" section either have clear fundamental flaws or are unlikely to create much buzz, occasionally there will be some that we feel warrant extra attention. These may be highly speculative names operating in a hot sector, or, simply names that we feel could work in the current environment. With that in mind, we have added a new "Notable" icon to help distinguish which IPOs in this section are also worth keeping on the radar.
| Civitas Solutions (CIVI) Expected IPO Date: September 17 Industry: Home Health Care | Lead Underwriters
Barclays, Jefferies, BofA Merrill Lynch, UBS |
Shares Offered
11.7 M |
Expected Price Range
$20-$23 |
Expected Deal Size
$251.6 M |
Shares Outstanding
36.95 M |
$938.9 M
|
Y/Y Rev Growth*
+5% | Operating Inc./Loss*
$44.2 M |
Y/Y Operating Inc. Growth*
+29% |
Civitas Solutions (CIVI) is a provider of at-home health services. Specifically, the company serves individuals with intellectual, developmental, physical or behavioral disabilities and other special needs. These populations are large, growing and increasingly being served in home- and community-based settings such as those CIVI provides.
The company offers its services through a variety of models, including 1) neighborhood group homes (residences for six or fewer individuals), 2) host homes, or the "Mentor" model, in which a client lives in the private home of a licensed caregiver, 3) in-home settings wherein CIVI provides therapeutic services, 4) specialized community facilities to support individuals with more complex medical, physical and behavioral challenges, and 5) non-residential care, consisting primarily of day and vocational programs.
Civitas has evolved from a single residential program serving at-risk youth to a diversified national network providing an array of services. The company currently operates in 36 states, serving more than 12,500 clients in residential settings and more than 15,700 clients in non-residential settings. Most of its funding comes from federal, state and local funding which get matching funds from Medicaid.
Civitas mostly focuses on individuals with intellectual and/or developmental disabilities ("I/DD"), youth with emotional/behavioral challenges, or at-risk youth ("ARY"), and individuals with catastrophic injuries, particularly acquired brain injury ("ABI"). Here is a bit more detail:
• I/DD: The largest portion of CIVI’s client base consists of adults and children with I/DD. Public spending on I/DD services was estimated to be $56.6 billion in 2011, of which approximately 80% was spent to provide services in community settings of six or fewer beds, CIVI’s target market. Of note, there is a significant unmet need for residential services for individuals with I/DD. Many states maintain waiting lists. There are legislative and advocacy efforts currently under way in many states to reduce waiting lists and provide additional access to residential services which will drive demand for CIVI.
• ARY: An estimated $29.4 billion was spent in 2010 on child welfare. Approximately 3.3 million referrals for abuse or neglect were investigated or assessed in the US in 2010. Of that, approximately 663,000 were served by the foster care system. Approximately 200,000 are living in non-relative foster family homes, which includes the therapeutic foster care market, the primary market for CIVI’s residential ARY services. An increasing number of children are living in poverty in the US. In addition, the number of children in single-parent families increased from 22.7 mln in 2008 to 24.7 mln in 2012. These children are more likely to require the residential and periodic services offered through CIVI’s ARY segment. In an effort to prevent children and adolescents from requiring an out-of-home placement, welfare agencies have for several years been emphasizing periodic support services to strengthen families at-risk.
• ABI: CIVI provides services to individuals with ABI and other catastrophic injuries. There are more than 2.6 million new brain injuries each year, many of which result in complex, life-long medical and/or behavioral issues that require specialized care. Approximately 5.3 mln individuals in the US are living with permanent disability as a result of an ABI. Increases in public awareness of the causes and complications of brain injury are driving an increased focus on the proper treatment of these injuries. In particular, the conflicts in Afghanistan and Iraq, where traumatic brain injury has been one of the signature wounds for our military, have contributed to this increased awareness. Football injuries are also getting more press. As a result, ER visits for traumatic brain injury increased by 30% from 2006 to 2010, an 8x increase compared with the growth in emergency room visits generally.
Taking a quick look at the financials, approximately 90% of CIVI’s revenue comes from contracts with state and local governments, a significant portion of which are funded through Medicaid. High exposure to Medicaid is a risk as the program is often cited as among the areas to cut in order to reduce the federal budget deficit. With that said, CIVI is posting decent revenue growth: $939 mln for the nine months ended June 30, up 5% YoY.
In terms of operating margin, it came in at 4.7%, an improvement from 3.8% in the year ago period. While it did increase this year, CIVI’s margins are pretty thin. The main negative with CIVI is that while it does report operating profits, it’s not profitable on a net income basis. That’s because of its high debt level and the corresponding interest payments which push CIVI into the red. CIVI currently has LT debt of about $800 mln and a negative shareholders value. CIVI says it will use the funds from this offering to reduce debt but it should still have a sizeable amount even after this offering.
|
*Six Months ended June 30, 2014
| rEVO Biologics (RBIO) Expected IPO Date: September 17 Industry: Biopharmaceuticals | Lead Underwriters
Piper Jaffray, Guggenheim Securities |
Shares Offered
3.6 M |
Expected Price Range
$13-$15 |
Expected Deal Size
$50.4 M |
$7.5 M
|
Y/Y Rev Growth*
-31% | Net Inc./loss*
($10.8) M |
Y/Y Net Inc. Growth*
-- |
rEVO Biologics (RBIO) is a commercial-stage pharma company that has one drug on the market, ATryn, which is an antithrombin product that treats a rare blood clotting disease known as hereditary antithrombin deficiency ("HD AT"). ATryn was approved for HD AT in Europe in 2006, and in the US in 2009. RBIO estimates that 2013 sales of all antithrombin products totaled just ~$50.0 million in the US; in order to expand this very small TAM, the company is currently in Phase 3 trials for a second indication, preeclampsia in weeks 24-28 of pregnancy, which impacts approximately 5,000 pregnancies each year in the US. Preeclampsia is a serious disorder of pregnancy that can escalate to multi-organ failure, seizures, coma, or death in the mother or baby. One estimate puts the annual healthcare costs of preeclampsia at more than $7.0 billion in the US. The only known way to stop the progression of preeclampsia is delivery of the baby, however deliveries prior to week 34 puts the baby at a significantly elevated risk of death or serious lifelong medical problems.
If the company's trial for preeclampsia (weeks 24-28), known as PRESERVE-1, shows positive results, the company plans to begin a study for ATryn to manage preeclampsia (weeks 29-33). The company expects to announce top-line data from PRESERVE-1 in the second half of 2016.
Aside from ATryn, RBIO's pipeline also includes rhAAT for the treatment of hereditary emphysema (preclinical), and the company has rights of first negotiation with Laboratoire francais du Fractionnement et des Biotechnologies ("LFB") to market Wilfactin and Clottafact in the US, which are two product candidates for bleeding disorders that are already approved in Europe.
Taking a quick look at RBIO's financials, revenues grew +19% to $21.4 million in 2013, although 1H14 sales declined -31% to $7.5 million. The company has never been profitable, and is currently reporting large losses. Following the IPO, RBIO expects to have approximately $55 million in cash, which should fund operations through 2H16, when the PRESERVE-1 data is due.
|
*Six Months Ended June 30, 2014
| Tokai Pharmaceuticals (TKAI) Expected IPO Date: September 17 Industry: Pharmaceuticals | Lead Underwriters
BMO Capital, Stifel, William Blair |
Shares Offered
5.4 M |
Expected Price Range
$13-$15 |
Expected Deal Size
$75.6 M |
$0
|
Y/Y Revenue. Growth*
-- | Net Inc/Loss*
($10.7) M |
Y/Y Net Inc. Growth*
-- |
Tokai Pharmaceuticals (TKAI) is a clinical-stage pharma whose lead drug candidate, galeterone, is wrapping up its Phase 2 trial (ARMOR2) for the treatment of patients with castration resistant prostate cancer (CRPC). The company is currently finalizing plans for the Phase 3 trial, and expects to initiate it in the first half of 2015.
The prostate cancer market is a very large one, where TKAI hopes to fill an unmet need. The company plans to conduct its Phase 3 trial in patients with with C-terminal loss and AR-V7. According to the company, in clinical studies conducted by researchers at MD Anderson Cancer Center and Johns Hopkins University, the presence in patients of truncated androgen receptors with C-terminal loss and AR-V7 was associated with poor responsiveness of patients’ prostate tumors to treatment with Zytiga and Xtandi, two of the highest selling therapies for CRPC with aggregate reported worldwide 2013 sales of more than $2.1 billion.
As a development-stage company, TKAI has not generated any revenue to-date, and currently has no partnerships that would pay any milestone revenues. Following the IPO, the company expects to have approximately $89 million in cash, which should fund operations through 1H17.
|
*Six Months Ended June 30, 2014
| Foamix (FOMX) Expected IPO Date: September 18 Industry: Specialty Pharmaceuticals |
Lead Underwriters
Barclays, Cowen & Company |
Shares Offered
5.9 M |
Expected Price Range
$10-$12 |
Expected Deal Size
$65.0 M
|
Shares Outstanding
19.9 M |
$2 M
|
Y/Y Rev Growth*
+592%
|
Operating Loss*
(0.144)
|
Y/Y Net Inc. Growth*
--
|
Foamix is an Israel-based clinical-stage specialty pharma company focused on its proprietary minocycline foam for the treatment of acne, impetigo and other skin conditions. Its lead product candidates, FMX101 for moderate-to-severe acne and FMX102 for impetigo, are novel topical foam formulations of the antibiotic minocycline.
Foamix developed FMX101 and FMX102 using its proprietary technology, which includes its foam-based platforms. This technology enables the company to formulate and stabilize a wide variety of drugs and deliver them directly to their target site. Its foam platforms have significant advantages over alternative delivery options and are suitable for multiple application sites, creating a potential pipeline of products across a range of conditions to drive future growth. Foamix expects to begin phase 3 trials in the US for FMX101 in mid-2015 and FMX102’s Phase 3 trials should begin at some point in 2H15.
FMX101
Foamix’s Phase II clinical trial results demonstrate that its minocycline foam, FMX101, provides a faster, more effective treatment than oral minocycline, the current standard of care for moderate-to-severe acne. It also does so with fewer side effects. Foamix believes that FMX101 has the potential to become the new standard of care for the moderate-to-severe acne market.
FMX101 has been shown in early trials to reduce inflammatory acne lesions by 71% in only six weeks and non-inflammatory lesions by 73% in 12 weeks. In addition, no drug-related systemic side effects were observed. Foamix has not conducted head-to-head trials with Solodyn, the primary branded oral minocycline in this market. However, Solodyn’s product label states that it achieved only a 44% reduction of inflammatory lesions in 12 weeks and that it did not demonstrate any effect on non-inflammatory lesions. Furthermore, Solodyn's most common side effects include headaches, fatigue, dizziness and severe itchiness.
Acne affects approximately 40-50 mln Americans with about 10 mln of them suffering from moderate-to-severe acne. The US market for branded prescription drugs for acne is estimated to be $2.6 bln per year, of which about $1 bln was attributed to oral antibiotics such as Solodyn, the current standard of care for moderate-to-severe acne, and the remaining $1.6 bln was attributed to topical drugs such as Epiduo and Aczone, which are used only to treat mild acne.
FMX102
The company has completed a Phase II clinical trial for FMX102, and based on its efficacy and safety profile, Foamix believes it will present an attractive option for the treatment of impetigo, including impetigo caused by methicillin-resistant staphylococcus aureus, or MRSA. Impetigo is a highly contagious bacterial skin infection that primarily afflicts preschool-aged children, and is typically caused by MRSA. It typically results in red sores and lesions on the face, neck, arms and legs. The US prescription drug market for impetigo is around $340 mln, the vast majority of which was Bactroban and other mupirocin-based topical products, which are the current standard of care for impetigo.
In Phase 2 trials, patients receiving FMX102 twice daily experienced an 81.3% success rate in only three days and a 100% success rate in 14 days. Moreover, all MRSA-infected patients were bacteriologically cured after seven days of treatment. On the other hand, Bactroban’s product label says it achieves a clinical efficacy rate of 71-96% after 8-12 days of three-times daily application.
Other Product Candidates
Using its proprietary technology and foam platforms, Foamix is developing several other product candidates, the most notable of which are: a) FMX101 for rosacea, for which Foamix expects to begin Phase 2 trials in 2015, and b) FDX104 for chemotherapy-induced rashes, for which Foamix expects to begin Phase I/II clinical trials in Israel in late 2014. Its product candidate pipeline also includes early-stage stable foam formulations of various drugs for the treatment of common dermatological indications, including antibacterial drugs, antifungal drugs, corticosteroids and immunomodulators.
Financials
Turning to the financials, Foamix does generate a small amount of revenue from development and license agreements with larger pharma companies (Bayer, Merz and Actavis). Basically, Foamix combines its foam technology with their proprietary drugs to create improved products. Foamix receives service payments and contingent payments from them. Foamix is not generating any product sales from its own products at this point and it will likely take a few years. With that said, Foamix posted 2013 revenue of $1.4 mln, up 29% from 2012. For 1H14, Foamix generated revenue of $2.0 mln, up nearly 600%. So, it’s very small, but revenue is starting to pick up in 2014. The company is not yet profitable.
|
*Three Months Ended March 31, 2014
| ProQR Therapeutics (PRQR) Expected IPO Date: September 18 Industry: Biopharmaceuticals | Lead Underwriters
Leerink Partners, Deutsche Bank |
Shares Offered
6.3 M |
Expected Price Range
$11-$13 |
Expected Deal Size
$75.0 M |
EUR 0
|
Y/Y Net Interest Inc. Growth*
-- | Net Inc/Loss*
EUR (6.7) mln |
Y/Y Net Inc. Growth*
-- |
ProQR Therapeutics (PRQR) is a Netherlands-based biopharma company that is developing RNA-based therapies for the treatment of severe genetic disorders. The company's lead candidate, QR-010, is currently in pre-clinical studies for the treatment of Cystic Fibrosis, which is the most common fatal inherited disease in the western world and affects an estimated 70,000 to 100,000 patients worldwide. QR-010 is designed to address the underlying cause of the disease by repairing the mRNA defect. QR-010 has been granted orphan drug designation in the United States and the European Union.
In the fourth quarter of 2014, PRQR plans to file an Investigational New Drug application (IND) with the FDA, and a Clinical Trial Application (CTA) with the EMA, for QR-010. The company then intends to initiate its first Phase 1b trial, and in parallel run a proof-of-concept (POC) study beginning in the first quarter of 2015. The company expects to report top-line data from the POC study in the third quarter of 2015 and from the Phase 1b trial in the fourth quarter of 2015.
As a pre-clinical stage company, PRQR has generated no revenues to-date (other than receiving some research grants), and reports large losses. Following the IPO, PRQR expects to have cash of approximately 89 million euros, which should fund operations through 2016.
|
*Six Months Ended June, 30 2014
| Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Expected IPO Date: September 18 Industry: Biopharmaceuticals |
Lead Underwriters
Oppenheimer, Roth Capital |
Shares Offered
5.0M |
Expected Price Range
$10-$12 |
Expected Deal Size
$55.0 M |
$0
|
Y/Y Rev Growth*
-- | Operating Inc/Loss*
NMF |
Y/Y Operating Inc. Growth*
NMF |
Viking Therapeutics is a clinical-stage biopharma company focused on therapies for metabolic and endocrine disorders. It has exclusive worldwide rights to a portfolio of five drug candidates in clinical trials or preclinical studies, which are based on small molecules licensed from Ligand Pharmaceuticals (LGND).
Its lead clinical program is VK0612 which is entering a Phase 2b clinical trial for type 2 diabetes, one of the largest healthcare challenges today. Preliminary clinical data suggest VK0612 has the potential to provide substantial glucose-lowering effects, with an attractive safety and convenience profile compared with existing type 2 diabetes therapies. The company believes that the inhibition of FBPase provides an attractive approach to controlling blood glucose levels in patients with diabetes.
Its second clinical program is VK5211 which is entering a Phase 2 clinical trial for the treatment of cancer cachexia, a complex disease characterized by an uncontrolled decline in muscle mass. VK5211 is designed to selectively produce the therapeutic benefits of testosterone in muscle tissue, with improved safety, tolerability and patient acceptance compared with administration of exogenous testosterone. Viking expects to begin Phase 2 trials for both VK0612 and VK5211 in early 2015 and to complete the clinical trials in 2016.
Viking is also developing three preclinical programs targeting metabolic diseases and anemia. Its most advanced preclinical program is VK0214, a novel liver-selective thyroid hormone receptor beta, or TRß, agonist for lipid disorders such as dyslipidemia and nonalcoholic steatohepatitis, or NASH. Viking expects to file an IND and begin clinical trials in 2015.
Turning to the financials, like most clinical stage biopharmas, Viking does not have any revenue and is not profitable. The company began operations in September 2012 so it’s still very new. Management says it’s not expecting any profits for the foreseeable future.
|
In this section of our weekly column, we provide a rolling list of each IPO to price over the past few months. Additionally, performance measures will be included in the table, as well as our grade or sentiment reading, if applicable.
If you would like to copy and paste the recent IPO tickers into your chart watchlist or spreadsheet, click here to pull up an un-formatted ticker list.
| Name |
Ticker |
IPO Date |
IPO Range |
IPO Price |
Change in Deal Size |
Opening Pop |
Performance Since Open |
Total Return |
Fundamental Grade |
| C1 Financial |
BNK |
8/13/2014 |
$18/$20 |
17 |
No Change |
4% |
2% |
6% |
-- |
| Otonomy |
OTIC |
8/13/2014 |
$14/$16 |
16 |
Increase |
13% |
7% |
21% |
-- |
| Independence Contract Drilling |
ICD |
8/8/2014 |
$11/$12 |
11 |
Decrease |
0% |
3% |
3% |
B+ |
| Ryerson Holding |
RYI |
8/8/2014 |
$11/$12 |
11 |
Decrease |
-6% |
9% |
3% |
-- |
| Hoegh LNG Partners |
HMLP |
8/7/2014 | $19-$21 |
20 | No Change |
10% |
12% |
23% |
B+ |
| T2 Biosystems |
TTOO |
8/7/2014 |
$15/$17 |
11 |
Increase |
45% |
11% |
62% |
-- |
| iDreamSky Technology |
DSKY |
8/7/2014 |
$12-$14 |
15 |
No Change |
17% |
23% |
44% |
B+ |
| Auris Medical |
EARS |
8/5/2014 |
6 |
6 |
Decrease |
2% |
1% |
2% |
-- |
| Mobileye |
MBLY |
8/1/2014 |
$21-$23 | 25 |
Increase |
44% |
50% |
117% |
-- |
| Loxo Oncology |
LOXO |
8/1/2014 |
$12-$14 |
13 |
Increase |
1% |
5% |
6% |
-- |
| FCB Financial |
FCB |
8/1/2014 |
$21-$23 | 22 |
No Change |
-7% |
8% |
0% | -- |
| VTTI Energy Partners |
VTTI |
8/1/2014 |
$19-$21 |
21 |
No Change |
0% |
24% |
24% |
-- |
| Avalanche Biotechnologies |
AAVL |
7/31/2014 | $16-$17 |
17 |
Increase |
47% |
29% |
89% |
-- |
| Bio Blast Pharma |
ORPN |
7/31/2014 |
$11-$13 |
11 |
No Change |
-1% |
-19% |
-20% |
-- |
| Catalent |
CTLT |
7/31/2014 | $19-$22 |
20.5 | No Change |
-2% |
17% |
14% |
-- |
| Health Equity |
HQY |
7/31/2014 |
$10-$12 |
14 |
No Change |
43% |
3% |
47% |
-- |
| Macrocure |
MCUR |
7/31/2014 |
$13-$15 | 10 |
No Change |
-10% |
-3% |
-13% |
-- |
| Synchrony Financial |
SYF |
7/31/2014 |
$23-$26 |
23 |
No Change |
0% |
7% |
7% |
-- |
| Transocean Partners |
RIGP |
7/31/2014 | $19-$21 |
22 | No Change |
0% |
23% |
23% |
-- |
| Vascular Biogenics |
VBLX |
7/31/2014 |
$13-$15 |
12 |
No Change |
-8% |
-- |
-- |
-- |
| Westlake Chemical Partners |
WLKP |
7/30/2014 | $19-$21 |
24 | No Change |
26% |
7% |
35% |
-- |
| Spark Energy |
SPKE |
7/29/2014 |
$19-$21 |
18 |
No Change |
0% |
-4% |
-4% |
-- |
| Advanced Drainage Systems |
WMS |
7/25/2014 |
$17-$19 | 16 |
No Change | 0% |
26% |
27% |
-- |
| El Pollo Loco |
LOCO |
7/25/2014 |
$13-$15 |
15 |
No Change |
27% |
106% |
161% |
C+ |
| Innocoll |
INNL |
7/25/2014 | $13-$15 |
9 |
Increase |
0% |
-10% |
-10% |
-- |
| Ocular Therapeutix |
OCUL |
7/25/2014 |
$14-$16 |
13 |
No Change |
0% |
25% |
25% |
-- |
| Orion Engineered Carbons |
OEC |
7/25/2014 | $21-$24 |
18 |
Increase |
-1% |
1% |
0% | -- |
| Immune Design |
IMDZ |
7/24/2014 |
$12-$14 |
12 |
Increase |
1% |
15% |
16% |
-- |
| Pfenex |
PFNX |
7/24/2014 | 8 |
$6 |
Decrease |
-3% |
6% |
3% |
-- |
| Townsquare Media |
TSQ |
7/24/2014 |
$14-$16 |
11 |
No Change |
-2% |
7% |
4% |
C+ |
| Medical Transcription Billing |
MTBC |
7/23/2014 |
$9-$11 | 5 |
Decrease |
0% |
-23% |
-23% |
C+ |
| Globant |
GLOB |
7/18/2014 |
$11-$13 |
$10 |
Decrease |
26% |
-1% |
23% |
B |
| Sage Therapeutics |
SAGE |
7/18/2014 | $17-$18 |
18 | No Change |
50% |
7% |
60% |
-- |
| TerraForm Power |
TERP |
7/18/2014 |
$23-$25 |
25 |
Increase |
33% |
-4% |
27% |
A- |
| TubeMogul |
TUBE |
7/18/2014 | $7-$8 |
7 |
Decrease |
29% |
36% |
75% |
B- |
| CareDx |
CDNA |
7/17/2014 |
$15-$17 |
10 |
Decrease |
-5% |
8% |
3% |
-- |
| Roka Bioscience |
ROKA |
7/17/2014 | $14-$16 |
12 | No Change |
0% |
-12% |
-12% |
-- |
| iRadimed |
IRMD |
7/16/2014 |
$5-$6 |
6.25 |
No Change |
60% |
-22% |
24% |
-- |
| GlobeImmune |
GBIM |
7/1/2014 | $10/$10 |
10 |
Decrease |
10% |
-5% |
5% |
-- |
| Investar Holding |
ISTR |
7/1/2014 |
$15-$17 |
14 |
No Change |
2% |
3% |
5% |
-- |
| Minerva Neurosciences |
NERV |
7/1/2014 | $6 |
6 |
Decrease |
0% |
23% |
23% |
-- |
| GoPro |
GPRO |
6/26/2014 |
$21-$24 |
24 |
No Change |
19% |
143% |
190% |
B+ |
| ServiceMaster |
SERV |
6/26/2014 | $18-$21 |
17 | No Change |
3% |
41% |
45% |
-- |
| TCP International |
TCPI |
6/26/2014 |
$13-$15 |
11 |
No Change |
0% |
-40% |
-40% |
-- |
| Adeptus Health |
ADPT |
6/25/2014 | $19-$22 |
22 | No Change |
14% |
11% |
27% |
-- |
| Amphastar Pharma |
AMPH |
6/25/2014 |
$10-$12 |
$7 |
Increase |
0% |
43% |
43% |
-- |
| Imprivata |
IMPR |
6/25/2014 | $14-$16 |
15 | No Change |
13% |
-20% |
-9% |
-- |
| Materialise |
MTLS |
6/25/2014 |
$12-$14 |
12 |
No Change |
0% |
-1% |
-1% |
B |
| Xunlei Limited |
XNET |
6/24/2014 | $9-$11 |
12 | No Change |
18% |
-8% |
10% |
-- |
| Eclipse Resources |
ECR |
6/20/2014 |
$27-$30 |
27 |
No Change |
0% |
-34% |
-34% |
-- |
| Kite Pharma |
KITE |
6/20/2014 | $15-$16 |
17 |
Increase |
50% |
6% |
59% |
-- |
| Ardelyx |
ARDX |
6/19/2014 |
$13-$15 |
14 |
Increase |
4% |
-13% |
-10% |
-- |
| Zafgen |
ZFGN |
6/19/2014 | $14-$16 |
16 |
Increase |
25% |
-8% |
16% |
-- |
| ZS Pharma |
ZSPH |
6/18/2014 |
$15-$17 |
18 |
Increase |
51% |
42% |
115% |
-- |
| Viper Energy Partners |
VNOM |
6/18/2014 | $19-$21 |
26 | No Change |
21% |
-3% |
17% |
A- |
| Signal Genetics |
SGNL |
6/18/2014 |
$10-$12 |
10 |
No Change |
-8% |
-45% |
-49% |
-- |
| Foresight Energy |
FELP |
6/18/2014 | $19-$21 |
20 | No Change |
0% |
-9% |
-9% |
B- |
| Century Communities |
CCS |
6/18/2014 |
$23-$26 |
23 |
No Change |
0% |
-16% |
-16% |
-- |
| Abengoa Yield |
ABY |
6/13/2014 | $25-$27 |
29 |
Increase |
21% |
8% |
30% |
-- |
| Aspen Aerogels |
ASPN |
6/13/2014 |
$14-$16 |
11 |
Increase |
0% |
-4% |
-4% |
B- |
| Memorial Resource Dev |
MRD |
6/13/2014 | $16-$18 |
19 |
Increase |
12% |
34% |
50% |
-- |
| Mobile Iron |
MOBL |
6/12/2014 |
$8-$10 |
9 |
No Change |
11% |
13% |
25% |
B+ |
| Trinseo |
TSE |
6/12/2014 | $17-$19 |
19 | No Change |
9% |
7% |
16% |
-- |
| Zhaopin |
ZPIN |
6/12/2014 |
$12.50-$14.50 |
13.5 |
No Change |
7% |
5% |
13% |
C+ |
| Arista Networks |
ANET |
6/6/2014 |
$36-$40 |
43 |
No Change |
28% |
58% |
103% |
A- |
| Radius Health |
RDUS |
6/6/2014 |
8 |
8 |
Decrease |
0% |
92% |
93% |
-- |
| Resonant |
RESN |
5/29/2014 | 6 |
6.00 |
Increase |
67% |
-34% |
11% |
-- |
| Agile Therapeutics |
AGRX |
5/23/2014 |
6 |
6.00 |
Decrease |
-8% |
80% |
65% |
-- |
| Heritage Insurance |
HRTG |
5/23/2014 |
$14-$16 |
11.00 |
No Change |
5% |
29% |
35% |
-- |
| Parsley Energy |
PE |
5/23/2014 |
$14-$16 |
18.50 |
Increase |
21% |
-7% |
12% |
A- |
| Superior Drilling Products |
SDPI |
5/23/2014 |
$5-$7 |
4.00 |
Increase |
0% |
74% |
74% |
-- |
| JD.com |
JD |
5/22/2014 |
$16-$18 |
19.00 |
No Change |
14% |
36% |
56% |
B- |
| SunEdison Semi |
SEMI |
5/22/2014 | $13-$15 |
13.00 | No Change |
15% |
15% |
32% |
-- |
| Tecogen |
TGEN |
5/20/2014 |
$4.75-$7.75 |
4.75 |
No Change |
25% |
-3% |
39% |
-- |
| Jumei |
JMEI |
5/16/2014 |
$19.50-$21.50 |
22.00 |
Increase |
24% |
1% |
25% |
-- |
| TrueCar |
TRUE |
5/16/2014 |
$12-$14 |
9.00 |
No Change |
8% |
40% |
51% |
C |
| Zendesk |
ZEN |
5/15/2014 | $8-$10 |
9.00 | No Change |
27% |
110% |
167% |
B- |
| ServisFirst Bancshares |
SFBS |
5/14/2014 |
$91-$93 |
30.33 |
No Change |
0% |
-1% |
-1% |
-- |
| PBF Logistics |
PBFX |
5/09/2014 |
$19-$21 |
23.00 |
No Change |
22% |
-10% |
10% |
-- |
| Tuniu |
TOUR |
5/09/2014 |
$9-$11 |
9.00 |
No Change |
0% |
100% |
100% |
C+ |
| Alder Biopharmaceuticals |
ALDR |
5/08/2014 |
$13-$15 |
10.00 |
Increase |
4% |
31% |
35% |
-- |
| Cheetah Mobile |
CMCM |
5/08/2014 |
$12.50-$14.50 |
14.00 |
No Change |
9% |
76% |
92% |
B |
| K2M |
KTWO |
5/08/2014 |
$16-$18 |
15.00 |
No Change | 0% |
-6% |
-6% |
-- |
| GasLog Partners |
GLOP |
5/07/2014 |
$19-$21 |
21.00 |
No Change |
21% |
19% |
45% |
-- |
| Aldeyra Therapeutics |
ALDX |
5/02/2014 |
$10-$12 |
8.00 |
Decrease |
-6% |
-46% |
-49% |
-- |
| Ares Management |
ARES |
5/02/2014 |
$21-$23 |
19.00 |
Decrease |
-4% |
-2% |
-6% |
-- |
| Papa Murphy's |
FRSH |
5/02/2014 | $11-$13 |
11.00 | No Change |
10% |
-18% |
-9% |
C+ |
| SCYNEXIS |
SCYX |
5/02/2014 |
10 |
10.00 |
Increase |
-3% |
-35% |
-36% |
-- |
| Lombard Medical |
EVAR |
4/25/2014 | 11 |
11.00 |
Decrease |
0% |
-35% |
-35% |
-- |
| Leju |
LEJU |
4/17/2014 |
$10-$12 |
10.00 |
Decrease |
8% |
34% |
45% |
-- |
| Sabre |
SABR |
4/17/2014 |
$18-$20 |
16.00 |
Decrease |
5% |
9% |
15% |
B- |
| Sportsman's Warehouse |
SPWH |
4/17/2014 |
$13-$15 |
9.50 |
No Change |
0% |
-27% |
-27% |
B |
| Vital Therapies |
VTL |
4/17/2014 |
$13-$15 |
12.00 |
No Change |
2% |
98% |
103% |
-- |
| Weibo |
WB |
4/17/2014 |
$17-$19 |
17.00 |
Decrease |
-4% |
53% |
47% |
B+ |
| Moelis |
MC |
4/16/2014 |
$26-$29 |
25.00 |
Decrease |
8% |
30% |
41% |
-- |
| Opus Bank |
OPB |
4/16/2014 |
$31-$34 |
30.00 |
Decrease |
0% |
5% |
5% |
-- |
| Trivascular Tech |
TRIV |
4/16/2014 |
$13-$15 |
12.00 |
No Change |
-5% |
36% |
28% |
-- |
| City Office REIT |
CIO |
4/15/2014 |
$14-$16 |
12.50 |
No Change |
0% |
1% |
1% |
-- |
| Paycom Software |
PAYC |
4/15/2014 |
$18-$20 |
15.00 |
No Change |
19% |
-4% |
15% |
A- |
| Enable Midstream |
ENBL |
4/11/2014 |
$19-$21 |
20.00 |
No Change |
8% |
22% |
31% |
B |
| Farmland Partners |
FPI |
4/11/2014 | $14-$16 |
14.00 |
Decrease |
-2% |
-15% |
-16% |
-- |
| Phibro Animal Health |
PAHC |
4/11/2014 |
$16-$18 |
15.00 |
No Change |
10% |
19% |
31% |
-- |
| Zoe's Kitchen |
ZOES |
4/11/2014 | $13-$15 |
15.00 |
Increase |
71% |
10% |
89% |
A- |
| Adamas Pharmaceuticals |
ADMS |
4/10/2014 |
$16-$18 |
16.00 |
No Change |
5% |
7% |
12% |
-- |
| Ally Financial |
ALLY |
4/10/2014 | $25-$28 |
25.00 | No Change |
-3% |
1% |
-2% |
B- |
| Cerulean Pharma |
CERU |
4/10/2014 |
7 |
7.00 |
No Change |
1% |
-44% |
-44% |
-- |
| iKang Healthcare |
KANG |
4/09/2014 | $12-$14 |
14.00 | No Change |
18% |
18% |
39% |
-- |
| La Quinta |
LQ |
4/09/2014 |
$18-$21 |
17.00 |
Increase |
-1% |
21% |
20% |
B- |
| Five 9 |
FIVN |
4/04/2014 |
$9-$11 |
7.00 |
No Change |
14% |
-25% |
-15% |
-- |
| GrubHub |
GRUB |
4/04/2014 |
$23-$25 |
26.00 |
Increase |
54% |
-3% |
50% |
B |
| IMS Health |
IMS |
4/04/2014 | $18-$21 |
20.00 | No Change |
11% |
27% |
41% |
B- |
| Opower |
OPWR |
4/04/2014 |
$17-$19 |
19.00 |
No Change |
32% |
-24% |
0% |
B- |
| Corium |
CORI |
4/03/2014 |
$10-$12 |
8.00 |
Increase |
3% |
-17% |
-14% |
-- |
| Tarena |
TEDU |
4/03/2014 |
$10-$12 |
9.00 |
No Change |
10% |
37% |
50% |
-- |
| Rubicon Project |
RUBI |
4/02/2014 | $15-$17 |
15.00 | No Change |
17% |
-35% |
-24% |
B+ |
| 1347 Property Insurance |
PIH |
4/01/2014 |
8 |
8.00 |
Decrease |
0% |
2% |
2% |
-- |
The Next Big Thing team:
- Lead Analyst: Dennis Hobein
- Contributing Analysts: Jim Busch and Robert Reid
|
