Recent Trading Calls and Strategies

Dow Jones eMini Futures (YMm0): +250 pts

11-Jun-20 10:20 CHART ChartTrader: shorting some YMs at 26160 at 1/2 size, risking 75 ticks 11-Jun-20 10:25 ET CHART ChartTrader: Scalping a piece of the YMs short here for about +75 pts, stops to 26175 on rest 11-Jun-20 10:45 ET CHART ChartTrader: Banking more of the YMs short here for about +125 pts 11-Jun-20 10:55 CHART ChartTrader: YMm0 short update -- Banking half of remaining here for about +200 pts 11-Jun-20 11:01 CHART ChartTrader: Covering rest of YMs short position here for about +250 pts as Nas retests opening lows

Two Harbors Investment (TWO): +58%

14-May-20 09:47 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: TWO Swing Long -- Starting 1/3 size and risking about 1 pt. This is an Agency REIT that is trading at a 43% discount to book value and is in a position to start building value again (3.93 -0.06) Two Harbors (TWO) is in a position to buy MSRs at a +25% yield and is in discussions with major banks for an MSR advance facility. Having the ability to buy MSRs in this environment will be a license to print money, but only the largest, most respected players are likely to secure this type of financing with banks. I think eventually TWO will return to about 80% of book value, which would imply a price target of about $5.60. I also think they will be growing book value going forward, so book value should move even higher from here. Starting 1/3 size and will be looking to scale in on weakness (approx. every 10% lower in price). 14-May-20 11:21 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: Patience Paying off on REIT trades so far Already seeing double digit gains from our entry prices this morning in TWO (4.33) and SKT (5.80), with TWO up 10% from entry and SKT up 14.5% from this morning's entry. Also caught a nice 2 pt scalp in SPG, even though I left 1.5-2 pts on the table. KIM (9.14, +0.38) was next on my list to enter, but was hoping to buy it near $8.00. Stock bottomed out at $8.35 this morning. Will keep it on the radar. TWOprC Preferred position (18.35 +0.10) also acting well after ticking down to a low of $17.28 this morning. I've sat on my hands the past several days, not buying stocks that I liked b/c it felt that prices were going lower. That patience is being rewarded so far, as positions were purchased at more attractive levels and have quickly moved into the money. 01-Jun-20 14:45 ET SCALP ScalpTrader Afternoon Summary Caught a nice scalp in NBR this morning, picking it up pretty close to the $33.08 low of day and riding it up to the $38.00 area. Have spent the remainder of the day researching new ideas and continuing to ride the market wave higher with our Swing Positions. Seeing very strong performance today in the two REIT purchases we made on Friday: EPRT is up 8% on the session, while SITC advances 9%. Also seeing strong gains in our Agency REIT position, Two Harbors (TWO), which is up 7% on the day and now trades 22.5% in the money... 05-Jun-20 10:08 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: TWO Swing Update -- Taking the first profit (1/3 of position) on Financial REIT position for a gain of 48%. Stops to entry area. This trade was initiated on May 14th at $3.93 (5.82 +0.36) Stock has quickly moved to the $5.60 price target. 09-Jun-20 09:59 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: TWO Swing Long Update -- Taking profits on the second 1/3 unit of Financial REIT swing position for a gain of 58%. Stop remains at $3.93 entry price. This trade was entered on May 14th. (6.21 +0.35)

Avis (CAR): +25%

08-Jun-20 10:01 ET TREND TrendTracker: Swing short Avis (CAR) half size, risking 2 points (35.70) 08-Jun-20 10:26 ET TREND TrendTracker: Covering half of the CAR short for a quick 5% gain, leaving stop at 37.70 (33.85) 10-Jun-20 09:49 ET TREND TrendTracker: Covering the short balance in Avis (CAR) for a ~25% gain from Monday morning (26.88 -2.24)

Moderna (MRNA): +30%

27-May-20 10:43 ET EVENT Event Trader: Entering a long in MRNA; We talked about this name a couple of sessions ago and suggested not to chase the high flyer; I had $50 on the radar for an area were I would be interested; It has broken below and coming into another support level around $45 (46.95 -10.47) I am taking a 1/4 size swing position in the name here. I am placing my stops at $40. This is a spec play so a little more risk and a wider stop. So positioning a little smaller for a typical swing. 27-May-20 12:39 ET EVENT Event Trader: Taking a piece of MRNA here for approx 14% profit; Stops will be moved to $44; Wanted to lock in some profits as this stock should be volatile (52.01 -5.70) 28-May-20 09:38 ET EVENT Event Trader: Taking another piece of MRNA for approx 20% profit; Stops at the $46.95 entry; Volatility in the markets has me a little more cautious on names like this; I have stops on the remaining 1/2 at entry; Either I get knocked out there or I will target $65 for profit taking and $85 as the final target (55.66 +3.52) 01-Jun-20 15:58 ET EVENT Event Trader: MRNA Follow Up- Banking another piece here for $15 (30%) profit ahead of tomorrow's Science Day; Stops moved to $50 psyche I would look to bank more in the position if we got a spike tomorrow on any headlines. 02-Jun-20 09:47 ET EVENT Event Trader: I am going to close out my MRNA Long here for an $11 profit (Approx 20%); Sceince Day is turning into a sell the news event here; I will continue to keep an eye on this as it is a very tradeable vehicle around the headline noise (57.05 -5.11)

Ciena (CIEN): +144%

09-Jun-20 09:46 ET TREND TrendTracker: Selling 1/3 of Ciena (CIEN) position for 144% gain, taking it down to 1/2 size I have owned this stock since 2017

Elastic (ESTC): +39%

05-Jun-20 11:15 ET TREND TrendTracker: Selling 1/3 of my Elastic (ESTC) position for a 39% gain (87.46) Still like it long term and have 2x size, just reducing risk and taking some profits here after loading up in March.

Spotify (SPOT): +41%

21-May-20 14:29 ET TREND TrendTracker: Selling half of Spotify (SPOT) swing long/investment for a 41% gain (195.90 +6.10) I have owned the stock since the IPO. I am down to a 1/4 size position now, most recently adding last October. The Joe Rogan deal has turned SPOT into a momentum stock much like the Bartsool Sports investment did for Penn Gaming (PENN). Both seem like great investments. Joe Rogan's podcast is immensely popular. The market value Spotify has accrued can be attributed to not only the Joe Rogan tailwind but the market's realization of Spotify's potential dominance in a podcasting market with massive long term potential. The same could be said for PENN in sports betting while Barstool is arguably one of the hottest media properties on its own. I continue to think this stock is worth owning for the long term as the clear leader in streaming audio. Their leadership in music is very clear and their investments in podcasts seem savvy given the proliferation of that market. Spotify will be able to grow subs long term while also leveraging its user base with a targeted advertising business. Spotify offers the best music streaming service so it has been able to steal the market from a less focused Apple (AAPL) despite its initiative to grow services revenue. Ironically, I am not a Spotify user. I listen to podcasts for free through Apple's Podcasts app and I am a YouTube subscriber to avoid ads and use the app in the background. Apparently, I am the exception because almost all of my friends use Spotify. The stock is not "cheap" at ~4x sales considering the relatively low gross margins or ~100x FCF, but the $35 bln market value seems reasonable given its strong market position.

Personalis (PSNL): +80%

23-Mar-20 09:50 ET TREND TrendTracker: Buying 1/3 size swing position in Personalis (PSNL) (6.48) Stock trades at 1x sales and reports on Wednesday afternoon. Significant potential upside over the long term (see premarket note). 25-Mar-20 16:19 ET TREND TrendTracker: Personalis (PSNL) reports modest beat, withdraws FY20 guidance Personalis (PSNL) reports Q4 results modestly above estimates; EPS ($0.21) vs. ($0.25) consensus; rev +38% to $18.2 mln vs. $17.9 mln ests. A total of 19 different customers placed orders for NeXT during 2019, with 9 of those customers placing their orders in the fourth quarter of 2019. The company withdrew FY20 guidance due to the COVID-19 uncertainty. "We are encouraged by the customer adoption and ramp of new orders for our NeXT platform, with orders exceeding revenues once again this quarter," said John West, Chief Executive Officer. "With the recent uptick in orders, as well as our broadening product offerings, which now includes diagnostic capabilities and with our liquid biopsy to be launched with customers this year, we expect revenues from biopharmaceutical customers to grow increasingly through the latter half of 2020." Generally comfortable owning this genomics company with a ~$80 mln EV at ~1x sales. 20-May-20 15:59 ET TREND TrendTracker: Personalis (PSNL) hits 7-month high as biotech stocks remain on fire (12.44 +0.92) Personalis (PSNL) hit a 7-month high today. I am tempted to sell half of my position here but I am going to see if the stock can break out above the January highs. I bought a small position in late March with the stock trading at ~1x sales. I continue to like this genomic diagnostic company long term. The valuation remains pretty attractive at ~3x sales, but I feel like it is prudent to take a partial profit, currently up ~90%. I will probably hold the remaining position longer term. 21-May-20 11:17 ET TREND TrendTracker: Selling half of Personalis (PSNL) swing long/investment position for +80% gain (12.22 -0.20) As mentioned late yesterday, I bought this stock in March at ~1x sales. I still like it but prudently taking a partial profit here, leaving a small position I am willing to hold longer term.

The Trade Desk (TTD): +475%

29-Apr-20 11:50 ET TREND TrendTracker: Trimming a piece of my investment in The Trade Desk (TTD) for ~475% gain (288 +30) Still my largest position but trimming a small piece here as I see more risk than reward short term. Average cost is just below $50. The ad market likely bottoms with the economy in Q2. The pandemic is accelerating shifts in the ad market, strengthening the company's position long term, reflected in the premium valuation. Not date for Q1 results yet.

CrowdStrike (CRWD): +137%

10-Mar-20 13:41 ET TREND TrendTracker: Adding to CrowdStrike (CRWD) swing long at 1/3 size (45.92 +0.18) As mentioned premarket, working from home could delay some new deals or purchasing decisions near term but I like the security leader's stock near its record low ahead of earnings March 19. 17-Mar-20 10:33 ET TREND TrendTracker: Adding 1/3 size to CRWD swing long investment position, now ~full size position (33.38 +0.37) The CrowdStrike (CRWD) quarter reported tomorrow afternoon should be another very strong one. Demand for the company's service is not going away, but we will likely see some disruption in the guidance for the March quarter and FY21. We can assume deals that were supposed to close this month won't because of work from home disruptions. Companies may be unwilling to make big decisions like switching security software for the time being. Obviously this will lead to significant uncertainty for FY21 guidance was well so consensus for 46% growth vs. 87% in Fy20 are no longer a layup. The software group is in free fall right now. CRWD is down to 10x forward sales, which isn't cheap in a normal sense, but it is by far the cheapest it has ever been relative to revenue. From a long term perspective, this is a buying opportunity -- the COVID-19 related headwinds are temporary and the secular cybersecutiry tailwinds will remain. I do think this is where you want to buy/average in, not sell the stock. 19-Mar-20 16:11 ET TREND TrendTracker: Pretty amazing quarter/guidance from CRWD given the current macro uncertainty Sees Q1 rev $165 mln vs. $159 mln consensus; FY21 rev $723-733.5 mln vs $680 mln consensus. I thought these estimates were a layup one month ago; apparently they aren't seeing much impact from COVID-19/macro softness. Have to assume guidance is conservative. ARR +92%, cash flow positive; valuation remains only sticking point here. 26-Mar-20 12:39 ET TREND TrendTracker: Selling 1/3 of the CrowdStrike (CRWD) swing long for a 37% gain from average entry (58.92 +3.14) Still expect stock to trade in $45-65 or $50-70 range going forward but feels prudent to take some off here. 20-Apr-20 11:23 ET TREND TrendTracker: CrowdStrike (CRWD) leading security stocks higher, breaks out to 6-month high Security stocks HACK +1.3% CRWD +6.94% RPD +4.19% CYBR +3.81% ZIXI +3.46% OKTA +2.90% QLYS +2.78% VRNS +2.53% ZS +1.90% PANW +1.87% FTNT +1.48% MIME +1.41% TENB +1.40% FEYE +1.39% Recall, I thought CRWD would trade in a $45-65 or $50-70 range after the company reported blow out results last month. CRWD is the premier enterprise software security firm, actually benefiting from the WFH trend creating more demand for security across endpoints. The ONLY real knock on this stock has been valuation (now ~$13B or 19x fwd sales or +100x FCF)... as we have seen from Zoom (ZM) and Shopify (SHOP). Valuation isn't much a constraint right now if you are a relative "winner" in this new post-pandemic world. I think both ZM and SHOP are swing shorts here as the market seems likely to cool off eventually so the momentum trade will reverse and valuations will correct but need to respect the strong price action for now. Descending EV/rev multiples as of this morning: ZM SHOP OKTA COUP DDOG TEAM VEEV RNG NET ZS CRWD WORK TDOC BILL EVBG SMAR FIVN DOCU PAYC AYX ... VEEV, TEAM and PAYC are the only ones with tangible FCF multiples 02-Jun-20 16:05 ET TREND TrendTracker: CRWD reports another monster beat and raise 03-Jun-20 10:04 ET TREND TrendTracker: Selling 1/3 of CrowdStrike (CRWD) swing long/investment for 137% gain (101.76 +9.51) Stock up ~200% from most recent purchase in mid-March.

Energy Select Sector ETF (XLE): +41%

20-Apr-20 09:50 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: XLE Swing Long -- Using weakness in Crude to initiate a 1/4 Swing Long in XLE. Risking about 5 pts. (32.85 -1.10) XLE is the Energy ETF. Chevron (CVX) and Exxon (XON) make up more than 45% of the holdings. I think Big Oil will come out of this crash in a stronger position as they are able to acquire distressed assets of bankrupt companies. 29-Apr-20 10:52 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: XLE Swing Long Update -- Using rally to take profits on 1/3 of position in Energy ETF for a gain of 16%; stops to entry.... This position was entered April 20th at $32.85 (38.22 +2.04) 08-Jun-20 09:40 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: XLE Swing Long -- Using strength to trim another 1/3 of the XLE swing position for a profit of 41%. Moving stop to the $36 area vs $32.85 entry price. This position was entered on April 20th (46.26 +1.42)

Redwood Trust (RWT): +20%

11-Jun-20 07:55 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: RWT Scalp Long -- Using pre-mkt weakness to pick up RWT for a scalp long. Starting 1/2 size. Stock currently trading down 26% to $5.30 as Financial-related stocks drop on concerns over Covid uptick in certain states. Risking about 1 pt 11-Jun-20 09:32 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: RWT Scalp Update -- Taking profits on 3/4 of the RWT scalp long from pre-mkt for over a 15% gain; stops to entry area. (6.27) 11-Jun-20 09:48 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: RWT Scalp Long Update -- Locking in profits on remainder of RWT scalp for a gain of over 20%. (6.68 -0.48)

Party City (PRTY): +440%

19-Mar-20 09:59 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: PRTY Spec Long -- Picking up a tiny position (1/8) size in Party City as a swing long. (0.32 +0.05) I think this can either go up 4-5x or go bankrupt. 19-Mar-20 10:23 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: Portfolio is on fire today -- Price action in some of the names I own: DCPprB +90%, PLAY +76%, PRTY +60%, RRR +51%, NGLSpra +50%, OHI +34%, PENN +33%, EPR +26%, SRG +23%, DCP +19% I'd look to trim some profits on anything that makes sense for you. I still need to go through the Portfolio to see what I want to trim. 23-Mar-20 11:39 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: PRTY Update -- Taking profits on 1/2 of remaining PRTY swing position for +97%; stops on remainder to $0.32 entry price. (0.63 +0.05) 27-May-20 10:10 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: PRTY Spec Update -- For those still in the PRTY swing position with me, would look to take more profits here as position moves +235% into the money. (1.07 +0.23) When we entered this on March 19th at $0.32, I indicated that PRTY could eventually run 4-5x. It's not quite there yet, but I'm continuing to lighten up on positions as market is starting to feel a bit frothy. 28-May-20 09:07 ET SCALP ScalpTrader Morning Notes I'm expecting volatility to start ticking up again, which should lead to more intraday trading opptys. This is a market that is hated by institutional investors, so I expect Short bets to continue ramping up. At the same time, I'm anticipating that liquidity flows from Retail and Overseas investors to provide price support into the next round of pullbacks. These dynamics should work to create market squeeze opptys such as the one we saw yesterday. I continue to lock in profits into this strong tape. Yesterday, I made the following trades: took profits on 1/3 of the remaining DCPprB preferred position for +380% locked in profits on 1/2 of the RUBI position for +27% trimmed more of the PRTY spec position for +235% closed out 1/2 of remaining NBR position for +230% Although I'm starting to turn somewhat bearish on the markets short-term, I think the easier money will be made waiting for pullbacks and playing short-term price squeezes at price support. 29-May-20 07:03 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: PRTY Spec Swing Long -- I'm using this pre-mkt pop to take profits on the remainder of my PRTY position for a gain of +470%. PRTY trading at $1.83 in pre-mkt on news of debt support deal. When I put this in the Portfolio on March 19th at $0.32, I said that stock could either go up 4-5x or go bankrupt. The heavy debt load was my major concern. The company is attempting to address this issue with today's debt exchange plan.

Preferred Agency REIT (DCPprB): +380%

18-Mar-20 14:20 ET SCALP ScalpTrader Long-Term Portfolio Summary Just wanted to highlight some of the stocks that I've personally been buying today (the percentage represents today's percentage change in price): PLCE (10.30 -40%), SRG (5.31 -59%), JACK (17.58 -24%), DCPprB (4.40 -60%), NGLSprA (6.60 -42%), DKS (13.48, -27%), PZZA (32 -17%), CVNA (24.56 -40%). This is not a complete list. Personally, I've really ramped up my buying today. There is forced liquidation going on in the face of a White House that will do everything it can think of to keep companies whole (i.e., extremely business friendly). 29-Apr-20 13:49 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: DCPprB Preferred Swing Update -- This Preferred has been a monster winner for us. I'm going to use strength to take profits on 1/2 the position for +294%. (16.25 +1.66) We own this at a 47.7% yield, so I want to maintain a position long-term in order to collect the distributions. This position was purchased on March 18th at $4.13. 27-May-20 09:47 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: DCPprB Swing Update -- Using strength to take profits on 1/3 of remaining Preferred position for a gain of 380%!. This positioned was purchased on March 18th at $4.13. (19.85 +0.79) I think position is approaching fair value here. Note that the security (which is a Preferred stock) goes ex-distribution this week ($0.4922). I'm selling position into the pre-distribution bump in price. Moving stop on remaining position to the $13.50 area.

Preferred Position (NGLSprA): +235%

19-Mar-20 12:24 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: Preferred Position Update -- Positions purchased yesterday are up 105% on average today Just an absolute monster day in the Preferred space. You guys know that I love this group for distressed trading. Got long a bunch of Preferred names yesterday: DCPprB (+135%), NGLSprA (+105%), TWOprB (+75%). On average, these names are up 105% today. I think it makes sense to trim some profits on each of the names. In terms of stops, put them where you feel comfortable. I don't think market volatility is completely over, so I think they could pull back in again (not thinking to the price that we bought them, but that is a possibility). DCPprB and NGLSprA will move with Oil. TWOprB will move with TWO and other Agency REITs. Note that we are getting 30% yields in some of these names and there is a chance they could all recover back to $25 par levels. So, while I'm scaling out of some, I'm keeping some as well. How I manage the remaining positions will depend on market conditions. Right now, I just don't know where I'll sell them or when. It is all dictated by the flow of the market. I just knew that they were too cheap not to buy yesterday. 06-Apr-20 10:27 ET SCALP ScalpTrader Spec Yield: Here are some of the names I'm buying for the Spec Yield Portfolio. Each of these names currently has a double-digit yield and I think has potential to advance 30-50% from here: EPRprG (14.61 +0.56) NGLSprA (11.80 +0.30) -- we already own this one in the Portfolio from the $6.60 area MFO (12.01 +1.91) ANHprB (12.19 +2.48) These are higher-risk Yield plays that require monitoring for updates on business trends. 04-May-20 11:27 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: NGLSprA Swing Update -- Taking profits on 2/3 of position in Preferred stock for +235% (21.82 +0.78) I've decided to take profits on the majority of the NGLSprA preferred position, as I feel it has reached short-term fair value. This position was highlighted on March 18th at $6.60. We've also received two monthly distributions of $0.1875 each since purchase. The position kicks off an annual yield of 34% at our purchase price. In a separate comment on April 6th, I highlighted it again as one of four Preferreds that I thought remained attractive and was continuing to buy (actually, 3 Preferreds and 1 baby bond). NGLSprA was trading at a price of $11.80 at that time. I'm placing a stop in the $15.30 area on the remainder of the position.

Ladder Capital (LADR): +128%

03-Apr-20 10:45 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: LADR Scalp Long -- Risking about 0.40 and starting 1/2 size. (3.06 -1.51) 03-Apr-20 11:23 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: LADR Scalp Update -- Going to take profits on 1/2 of the LADR position for +5% and move stops to entry area. Market moving to lows, so tightening things up. (3.23) 03-Apr-20 11:41 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: LADR Scalp Update -- Would trim more if still involved.(3.35 -1.22) Note that I personally decided to start a small, new Swing position (1/4 size). I want long-term exposure in this name, just not certain it is done going down. 07-Apr-20 10:04 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: LADR Swing Long Update -- Going to use strength to take off 1/2 of the LADR swing long that I started on Friday for a 70% profit. Stops to the $3.35 entry price. (5.68 +1.60) 08-Apr-20 09:09 ET SCALP ScalpTrader Morning Notes You may have noticed my fascination with Mortgage & Financial REITs the past several days. This is b/c it is the space that I think currently offers the most intriguing risk/reward profile. Since the close yesterday, several names in this space have provided book value/business updates. Here is today's pre-mkt price action in the names that issued updates: EFC +56%, NYMT +42%, IVR +27%, NLY +24%, DX +12%. We are seeing a trickle-down effect to others in the space: ANH +26%, MITT +23%, MFA +16%, GPMT +15%, XAN +13%, AI +12%, ARR +12%, LADR +12%, NRZ +11%, ORC +11%, TWO +10%, TRTX +10%. Many of these companies got themselves in trouble by taking on too much leverage. Resulting margin calls led to portfolio liquidation that depressed the value of assets. However, now that banks have largely stopped the margin calls, asset values have begun to recover. Moreover, private equity has stepped in with their billions of dry powder to put a bid under the market, as they look for value opptys. I still think there is money to be made in the space, but the oppty seems to be closing rather quickly. Over the past several days, I've highlighted several names that should benefit from this situation. I'm still researching several others. 20-Apr-20 09:17 ET SCALP ScalpTrader Morning Notes Two current Swing Positions provided updates since Friday: Moments ago, LADR reported that it had increased unrestricted cash to $600 mln, nearly double the level since its April 2 update. Sources of the increased liquidity included repayment of $203 million of maturing loans, financing of assets in ordinary course and the sale of $380 million of loans and securities at an average price of 96% of par. On Friday, LPI reported that has reduced its 2020 capital budget by 36% to $290 million from the previously-announced $450 million, and expects to generate approx $90 million in Free Cash Flow , excluding non-budgeted acquisitions, for full-year 2020. LPI also stated that 100% of its anticipated oil production is hedged, with 7.2 million barrels swapped at $59.50 WTI and 2.4 million barrels swapped at $63.07 Brent. The Company is targeting Free Cash Flow of approx $90 million for Full-Year 2020 assuming $25 WTI for balance of year. In terms of liquidity, the Company had outstanding borrowings of $275 million on its $950 million senior secured credit facility, resulting in available capacity, after the reduction for outstanding letters of credit, of $660 million. Including cash and cash equivalents of $102 million, total liquidity was $762 million. Additionally, the Company has no term-debt maturities until 2025. 29-Apr-20 10:07 ET SCALP ScalpTrader: LADR Swing Long Update -- Using continued strength to take profits on 1/2 of remaining swing position for approx. +128%; stops remain at $3.35 entry price. (7.63 +0.54)

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