Cryptocurrency Trades
The cryptocurrency space is the next big thing in our Scalp Trader's opinion (which is a theme he has been pounding home for the last six months). So many people are trying to get into the Crypto markets that several major Crypto brokers have stopped opening new accounts until they can upgrade their infrastructure. One of these brokers, Binance, has seen its daily exchange volume rise from under $100 million per day to as much as $10 billion per day in less then six months. They have had days in which they've opened 250,000 accounts.
It is reported than in 2017 over 100 hedge funds collectively raised more than $2 billion to invest in Cryptocurrency. There is no question that 2018 will dwarf that $2 bln figure. Crypto Index funds, futures, options, hedging, social investing/trading, banking, lending, social media platforms are all being rolled out or are already up-and-running. Scalp Trader doesn't recall seeing this level of interest in investing/speculating even during the Internet boom. That period in the late-90s was considered a bubble.
In time, Crypto may also be remembered as bubble. However, out of the '90s bubble came investment opportunities such as Amazon and Google and eventually Netflix, Priceline, Apple and Facebook. This will be the same. Moreover, during that period, the opportunity to make substantial sums in the market lasted for almost 4 1/2 years.
Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures
As market volatility began heating up last week,
ChartTrader (CHART) went on the Trader Audio live stream and explained how trading can be even more lucrative when volatility increases, provided you understand which tools to use and how to use them.
He shorted the Nasdaq 100 futures (NQh8) on Monday for as much as 80 points in profit, then covered, and got long the S&P 500 futures very late Monday evening, eventually banking as much as 170 points in profit on the subsequent bounce following Monday's crash.
CHART exited this bounce position very near the highs on Wednesday and then got short again in the Nasdaq 100 the next morning for as much as 100 points of profit. He then rounded out the week with another 120 points and 32 points of profits on the short side in the Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 futures on Friday morning.
That represents five futures trades yielding a collective reward-to-risk ratio of more than 8:1. Hypothetically, a trader taking these trades with a single contract in each case, using suggested stops, and holding that contract until ChartTrader fully exited each position, would have made $16,100 with just $2,040 cumulatively at risk.
05-Feb-18
14:00 ET
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CHART
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Out of NQ's for a minute ... will let it cycle through... will go back after it on a break back under 6705
This still needs to wash out as I see it.
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05-Feb-18
14:00 ET
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CHART
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Q&A on bias
Q: CHART the market is down 400 points why are you getting short here?
A: As noted, I have been shorting off and on in quick momentum scalps and plan to continue that strategy until we see something that feels like a real washout. I apologize for not being able to post earlier due to technical issues on our system. This is a trend-following strategy keying off the VIX deleveraging I discussed on our Trader Audio earlier today. We still haven't seen any put/call ratio spikes, which is the signal I'm looking for to flip directional bias.
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05-Feb-18
14:58 ET
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CHART
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Would cover remaining NQs short here for about +80 pts
Now I think we're starting to see some panicky action.
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05-Feb-18
23:31 ET
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CHART
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Buying some ESh8 at 2535 at 1/4 size, risking 17 pts... tester position
May have to take a few shots like this tonight. But should be able to get something on that will stick at this point. Really don't mind a trial-and-error process here. Stop is just above the 5% limit down stoppage price. I don't want to get caught holding on a limit.
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06-Feb-18
04:49 ET
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CHART
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S&P futures long update/thoughts
Up as much as 110 pts on the trade at this point, and already to the area I thought we might see today (Tuesday)... I wouldn't be surprised to see a choppy session that bounces around between 2575 and 2660. But my mental model for this pattern at this point has me ideally targeting between 2725-2775 later this week, and I want to hold for that unless or until I start to see some things that really don't mesh with that conception of the pattern. See 23:31, 00:20, 2:12.
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06-Feb-18
05:54 ET
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CHART
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Q&A on S&P futures contracts and monetary implications of movement
Q: Chart Trader- How much money is that long S&P trade worth- up 110 pts, say for 1 contract?
A: The ES (emini S&P 500 futures) is worth $50 per point per contract. So, if you bot just 1 contract and it ran 110 pts higher, you would be up $5,500. The risk I took on the trade was 17 pts upon entry, which would translate to a loss of $850 if you took the trade on a single contract and it got stopped out.
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06-Feb-18
15:10 ET
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CHART
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ESh8 Long Update -- Banking half of remaining S&P futures long here for about +155 pts as we hit underside of target zone
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07-Feb-18
10:34 ET
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CHART
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Closing out the Swing Long in ESh8 (S&P 500 futures) for about +170 pts on this last piece as we hit upper area of revised outside target zone.
We may go a bit higher, but this is well within my target zone, so I'll take it. (Remember, though, I am also still broadly exposed long to risk assets in an unleveraged investment portfolio, so I am not completely without market exposure. This is me taking off the additional leveraged long exposure).
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08-Feb-18
10:26 ET
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CHART
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Back short NQ's at 6566; risking 15 pts
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08-Feb-18
10:29 ET
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CHART
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NQ's short update -- banking a piece here for about +25 pts; stops to 6570... Next target would be around 6500 if we see the levels break here
See 10:18, 10:26.
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08-Feb-18
10:52 ET
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CHART
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Banking half of remaining NQ's short position here for about +70 pts
Will keep a little on and let it try to run big.
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08-Feb-18
11:34 ET
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CHART
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Just closed out last piece of NQ's short for just shy of +100 pts
Very nice breakdown. See premarket notes for thoughts/model helping with shortside conviction on intraday patterns in this market.
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09-Feb-18
09:59 ET
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CHART
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Shorting some NQ's at 6411; risking 15 pts
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09-Feb-18
10:04 ET
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CHART
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Scalping a piece of NQ's short here for about +30 pts
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09-Feb-18
10:35 ET
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CHART
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Going to add a short in the S&P futures (ESh8 - March contract) at 2602.50; risking 7.00
Like a short in SPY with about 0.70 risk.
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09-Feb-18
10:48 ET
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CHART
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Closing out NQs short here for about +120 pts
Still short ES.
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09-Feb-18
10:49 ET
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CHART
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And closing out ES short here for +32 pts
This was my target.
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BRIEFING TRADER SUBSCRIBERS SAY:
"Never any confusion here with your trades my friend...that es long was an excellent call"
"Beautiful trades. It's like watching an artist. I'm glad I follow you so closely. Thank you."
"CHART - pure genius!! LOL Best call and timing of the year!!!"
"CHART great NQ trade!!!"
"On your 8:27am comment...You do a great job."
13-Feb-18
09:58 ET
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CHART
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ChartTrader: Buying some NQ's at 6498; risking 15 pts
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13-Feb-18
10:01 ET
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CHART
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ChartTrader: NQ's long update -- Scalping a piece, stops to entry on the +20 pt move into the money
See 9:58.
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13-Feb-18
10:21 ET
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CHART
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ChartTrader: NQ's long update -- Banking another piece here for about +35 pts
See 9:58, 10:01.
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13-Feb-18
13:46 ET
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CHART
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ChartTrader: Banking another piece of the NQ's long here for about +50 pts on the breakout
Will let the last piece run.
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14-Feb-18
08:29 ET
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CHART
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ChartTrader: Going to close out the NQ's long position here for about +97 pts
Bumping into the 50-day simple MA here in the Nas 100 into the CPI print.
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09-Feb-18
10:59 ET
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BLUEX
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Blue Chip Trader -- CMG Swing Short Balance Follow Up (255.82 -10.12)
Prices plunged under those Oct/Nov lows along 264/263 area for a solid +18 point gain (Long March 285 Puts +50%).
It's just a matter of "trimming and trailing" from here on out. Remaining balance stop lowered under breakeven near 265/269 is prudent.
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3-Jan-18
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IPOXX
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On January 3, IPO Trader published a new “The Next Big Thing” report and highlighted Altair Engineering (ALTR), a developer of engineering simulation software that went public on November 1, 2017. What caught his attention that day was that the stock was in the midst of a strong rebound off of a key support level and was threatening to break out to new highs. And that happened in emphatic fashion on January 9 and into the 10th with the stock jumping by 10% over these two trading sessions, and is now up 14% since IPO Trader's initial report.
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Stitch Fix (SFIX) +69%
Trend Tracker liked SFIX as a disruptor in the retail sector heading into the IPO. It was not a well-received IPO out of the gate due its association with consumer-focused subscription service IPO flop Blue Apron (APRN) and concerns over competition from the likes of Amazon (AMZN). Trend Tracker saw value and bought it on the first day of trade. The stock surged higher within weeks in the face of the bearish sentiment.
17-Nov-17
10:31 ET
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TREND
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TrendTracker: Buying half size postilion in SFIX at a reasonable valuation (17.87)
- I'm surprised Stitch Fix (SFIX) was received so poorly -- priced 8 mln share at $15 vs. initial expectation for 10 mln at $18-20.
- I guess the simple idea behind it is Amazon competition in addition to slowing growth, requires more marketing spending.
- In the year ending July 2017, rev was up 34% to $977 mln, down from 113% rev growth in FY16.
- In the IPO prospectus, SIFX preannounced Q1 sales up 25% with EBITDA of $~10 mln.
- I think this we have a good oppty to buy a retail disruptor at ~1.5x this year's sales.
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17-Nov-17
10:41 ET
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TREND
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TrendTracker: Adding to the Stitch Fix (SFIX) Long position here half-size (17.11)
Now up to full size total.
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27-Nov-17
09:55 ET
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TREND
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TrendTracker: Selling 1/3 of the Stitch Fix (SFIX) Long for a 16% gain (20.25 +1.63)
I still think this could be a big winner but I'm locking in some gains above the 20 level here.
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26-Dec-17
13:40 ET
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TREND
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TrendTracker: Selling half of my remaining Stitch Fix (SFIX) Long position for a +69% gain (29.50 +4.88)
I have 1/3 size position left; willing hold it for a longer term swing. The valuation remains quite reasonable or even cheap if you believe in the long term viability/growth prospects of the company but competition and margins are a legitimate concern -- the massive short interest and tiny float have been a nice tailwind for the trade.
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BRIEFING TRADER SUBSCRIBERS SAY:
"Trimmed a 1/3 of my 1/2 size position with you for +35%"
"I took the rest off here pre-market at +65%..."
11-Dec-17
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IPOXX
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On December 11, IPO Trader published a new "The Next Big Thing" report on recent cloud software IPO Appian (APPN). In the comment, he highlighted APPN as a “bounce-back” candidate as the stock slid down to a key support area. From a fundamental perspective, he pointed out that the company handily exceeded Q3 expectations, with revenue up strong double digits and with loss from operations improving sharply from the year ago period. A few days after the report, shares spiked higher, breaking above its 50 and 100 day moving averages. The rally continued on into January 5 with shares hitting new all-time highs, gaining as much as 115% from our post.
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Roku (ROKU) +60%
On October 19, shortly after streaming TV leader Roku (ROKU) went public (9/28/17), Relative Value Trader initiated a position in the stock as shares had settled down following the volatile, whippy post-IPO action. Out of the gate, ROKU rocketed higher, gaining as much as 111% versus its IPO price, leading to some notable profit-taking over the following couple of weeks. When the stock found a floor in the $20 area, however, this represented an attractive opportunity to open a new position as most of the short-term IPO flippers had already exited the stock. From a fundamental perspective, ROKU was appealing due to the fact that more and more consumers are "cutting the cord" and moving to streaming TV services. Also, ROKU has a compelling "razor-razor blade" type business model in which it sells the TVs and hardware needed for streaming, which opens up the opportunity to sell higher margin content to these same consumers.
10-Nov-17
10:01 ET
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RVALU
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Relative Value Trader: Shares of ROKU Continue to Rip Higher on Heels of Q3 Report; Selling Another 1/4 Piece to Lock in +60% (32.85 +3.65)
- Been quite a ride for ROKU over the past couple days, fueled by impressive Q3 results, short squeeze, and a low float. Yesterday, I decided to take a quarter of my 3/4-size position off the table to lock in gains. Today, I am going to take another 1/4 off to secure gains.
- ROKU now is just a 1/4-size position with a cost basis of $20.63. Moving stop up to $25 from $21.50 on this last piece.
- Other RVALU Holdings: AYX, RDFN, FNKO, INST.
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29-Sep-17
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IPOXX
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On September 29, in our “Week Ahead Report” for The Next Big Thing column, we published a preview for ICO Dovu (DOV). DOV’s mission is to be the world's first mobility cryptocurrency. The DOVU Protocol, which is built on the Ethereum platform, empowers data owners to control access to the data shared, while receiving value for the use of that data in return, in the form of DOV tokens. In our preview, we stated: “…What also stands out is that DOV has a solid management team in place, a major distinguishing factor among ICOs. Also, DOV has already successfully raised seed money from respectable institutions, adding more credibility. All in all, we feel that DOV has the potential to raise a significant amount of capital through its ICO and it could see strong interest when it begins trading on crypto markets.” Since its ICO, DOV has gained as much as 673%.
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15-Sep-17
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IPOXX
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On September 15, in our “Week Ahead Report” for The Next Big Thing column, we published a preview for ICO bitJob (STU). STU helps students earn a stable income with their free time, while engaging with digital currency. It takes conventional small-gig and freelance sites with the blockchain, creating the first hybrid blockchain project that enables peer-to-peer connection with employers and students. In our preview, we wrote, “With nearly $12 million raised so far, and with about another month to go before the closing date, STU is in good shape to raise a considerable amount of capital… All in all, STU could see plenty of interest as the amount of capital raised continues to climb, making it one to keep on the radar when it begins trading on exchanges.” Since its ICO, STU has gained as much as 230%.
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1-Sep-17
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IPOXX
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On September 1, in our “Week Ahead Report” for The Next Big Thing column, we published a preview for ICO Rivetz (RVT). RVT is focused on cyber security, building a Global Attestation and Identity Network powered by its Rivetz Token. This Attenstation and Identity Network is designed to record and verify the health and integrity of any device using an RVT and blockchain technology. In our preview, we commented, “RVT has a lot going for it and we feel it is definitely one to take a look at. With an experienced management team and with the company already generating some revenue, RVT is about as "established" as it gets in crypto-land. Therefore, it's not surprising that demand has been so strong for this one and it wouldn't be surprising if it launched higher when it begins trading.” Since the launch of its ICO, RVT has gained as much as 419%.
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Roku (ROKU) +140%
Trend Tracker liked ROKU on the pullback ahead of its first report as a public company. The high short interest and reasonable valuation provided a great setup ahead of what he expected to be a strong debut quarter on Wall Street after a well-thought out IPO. He took profits after a strong quarter for +50% and then +89% and +140% as the stock squeezed the shorts.
25-Oct-17
15:12 ET
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TREND
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TrendTracker: Buying a half-size position in Roku (ROKU) for a swing (18.84 -0.93)
- I like the stock at these levels, too (SCALP bought earlier today).
- This Variety report about a foray into steaming content through its app (seemingly making it a competitor to Hulu or NFLX) makes this a much more interesting story.
- In order for ROKU to avoid the fate of GPRO and FIT, Roku has to build out a business beyond selling its streaming device.
- It has already done a good job of that: platform (subscription + advertising) revenue was up 95% Y/Y to $46 mln (almost half of total sales) in the second quarter.
- For that reason, I like the stock at the current valuation (less than 4x sales or just under 3x FY18 sales estimates).
- Roku mgmt seems to be making the right moves, so unlike what we saw with SNAP, I am expecting a solid debut when the company reports its first quarter as a public company on November 8.
- A strong quarter should get investors excited about the stock... conservatively targeting ~20.50 and then ~22.
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09-Nov-17
09:49 ET
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TREND
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TrendTracker: Selling half of Roku (ROKU) position for +50% (28.64 +9.80)
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13-Nov-17
12:50 ET
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TREND
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TrendTracker: Selling final tiny piece of Roku (ROKU) Long here for a ~140% gain (45.34 +12.08)
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BRIEFING TRADER SUBSCRIBERS SAY:
"WELL DONE! I sold half for +50 and half for +100%"
Helios & Matheson (HMNY) + 50%
Scalp Trader took advantage of the secondary offering for a compelling entry in a potential growth stock. His first trim on the position resulted in a 50% profit.
13-Dec-17
09:46 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader: HMNY Swing Long -- I'm going to enter a 1/3 swing long in HMNY as well (EVENT also put on a position)..Will be looking to scale in and I'm risking about 1.5 pts (6.39 -3.69)
- A secondary offering was the big thing that I'd been worried about.
- Now that the company has cash to fund their venture for a period of time, stock should be able to work higher.
- Also, Costco being on board brings a lot of legitimacy to the operation and should open the door to new partnerships.
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13-Dec-17
14:16 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader Q&A -- HMNY (6.60 -3.48)
Question: HMNY -- With the high short interest, it would seem a real risk to hold this short overnite at these levels. But, there's been selling since 11:45. Seems like the $6.50 offering price should hold. I would guess a gap up tomorrow to squeeze shorts. What do you think? Thanks.
Answer:
I've traded a lot of secondary offerings over the years and have found that the easy trades usually aren't that easy. This is why I'm scaling in with 1/3 positions, as it would not surprise me if Shorts break it through the secondary pricing level and flush new longs. That may not happen, but have seen it so many times, that I think it is best to scale into it and be prepared to take advantage of a potential flush.
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19-Dec-17
09:47 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader: HMNY Swing Long -- Adding another 1/3 to the HMNY swing long position, bringing total position to 2/3 normal size. (5.73 -0.21)
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10-Jan-18
09:46 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader: HMNY Update -- Trimming 1/2 of the HMNY swing position for 50% profit. Stops to $7.00 area (9.14 +1.98)
Our avg entry price on the position is $6.06...
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NGL Energy Partners (NGL) +92%
The Energy Sector continues to work through the collapse in Crude Oil prices. The uncertainty created by volatile Oil prices has provided us numerous opportunities over the past three years. In this case, Scalp Trader was able to pick up a 16.7% yielder that has now generated a return of over 90%. We also made 70% on our money writing Put options on the name.
22-Aug-17
12:24 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader New Position in Personal Portfolio
- Wanted to point out that I'm a buyer of NGL Energy Partners (NGL 9.35 +0.30) today.
- Note that this is a MLP, so if you buy it, there will be a K-1 coming your way.
- Also, this is not going in as a Portfolio position. This is a personal Investment that I'm making with plans to ideally hold for many years to take advantage of the depressed stock price and compelling yield.
- I like it enough to put into the portfolio, but given that I'm looking to sit on this for many years, I didn't think it made since to place NGL into my more active portfolios. I also feel that NGL is a bit too speculative to go into my Yield Portfolio. I've started off with a 40% position in the name and will be hoping for weakness in order to add.
- At current price of $9.37, NGL yields 16.7%. Company has suffered through some execution issues the past couple of quarters. However, NGL is still targeting 1.3x distributable cash flow coverage for this year.
- Recent comments by RBC Capital Markets are very much in line with my thinking on the name at these levels:
- RBC Capital Mkts lowers their NGL tgt to $14 from $20. RBC notes, continued Refined Products pressure more severe than expected; they lower estimates. Stock reaction (off 20%) understandable, but they think it's overdone; current 15%+ yield implying distribution at risk again. If NGL anywhere close to lower expectations, distribution is safe and stock looks cheap at 5-7x P/DCF. Getting credibility back through execution is key.
These comments were made by RBC on Aug 4 in reaction to co's most recent earnings report. The stock fell to $9.25 from $12.80 in reaction the report. That is after having already crashed from $25 since January.
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20-Sep-17
10:06 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader: NGL Options Trade
- I'm initiating a Short Put position in NGL Energy (NGL 10.65 +0.10).
- Selling the Nov expiry $10 Puts for $0.70.
- Already generating about 17% yield on the common units in NGL. With Oil prices continuing to edge higher, I think NGL will steadily make up lost ground.
- I'm personally starting with 10 contracts and will look to build on weakness in the stock price.
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02-Nov-17
12:05 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader: NGL Short Put position -- Taking profits for 70%
- I've decided to lock in profits on the Short NGL Nov $10 Put position ahead of next Tuesday's earnings report.
- I'm not necessarily expecting a bad qtr, but NGL has disappointed the last couple and the stock has had a decent run off recent lows. Moreover, have plenty of exposure to NGL through the common units.
- Thus, with most of the meat off the bone of this trade, I'm taking profits.
- After selling the Puts for $0.70, I was able to buy them back for $0.21, translating to a 70% profit.
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27-Dec-17
13:21 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader NGL Swing Update -- Closing out 1/2 of my NGL Energy Partners swing position for +55%. (14.20 -0.10)
- I believe price has reached short-term fair value, so I'm going to lock in profits on 1/2 of the position.
- Have an entry price of $9.35 and have collected one quarterly distribution of $0.39, bringing total profits to 55%.
- Stops on remainder of the position to the $11.00 area.
- Current yield is 11.9% vs the 16.7% yield we are receiving at our entry price.
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24-Jan-18
10:41 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader: NGL Swing Update -- Trimming 1/3 of remaining NGL position for +92% profit (17.55 +0.35)
- This is a MLP that we purchased at $9.35, which at the time was a 16.7% yield.
- Price was clearly oversold at the time despite the co having a couple of disappointing qtrs.
- The name has now surged 86% from our entry price and we've also picked up a 4% quarterly dividend distribution, bringing our total gain on this piece to 92%.
- Raising stops to the $13.00 area.
- Note that the record date for the next distribution payment is Feb 6. I think some of the recent price appreciation may be due to investors positioning for the quarterly payment. Hence, I'm okay trimming some here so close to the record date, as I would expect price to pullback post-distribution.
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19-Dec-17
10:12 ET
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BLUEX
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Blue Chip Trader -- ERX Swing Long (31.26 +0.32)
- I've been bullish on Energy the last few sessions and liking the group for a lift higher during the latter half of December based on its strong seasonality.
- Too many names to choose, so I'm going with this 3x-weighted Energy ETF, ERX here around 31.25 area, risking abut $2 for a Swing Long.
- Ideally, we'll get a breakout above 2-month highs above the $33 level.
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21-Dec-17
10:04 ET
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BLUEX
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Blue Chip Trader -- ERX Swing Long Follow up (32.92 +0.55)
- Solid follow-through to yesterday's breakout momentum so far this morning... good for an approx gain of +1.75 points.
- A partial profit is warranted into strength if possible as reward nears our initial risk of $2 on the trade. Balance stops tightened up towards the 30/31 zone is prudent.
- Early Point Gainers in the Energy complex (XLE, OIH, XOP) here include CVX +2, FANG +1.50, and CLB +1.50.
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21-Dec-17
12:02 ET
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BLUEX
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Blue Chip Trader - - ERX Swing Long Follow Up (34.25 +1.88)
- Stellar breakout in the Energy complex this morning, making our Swing Long in ERX good for a +3 point gain at its clears the 34.25-level.
- Partial profits into strength is warranted; balance stops at breakeven zone near $31.
- Note a little bit of "sector rotation" mixed with a strong seasonality and prices lifting out of its recent pullback/inside week were the reasons I favored this group as a long earlier this week.
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11-Jan-18
13:15 ET
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BLUEX
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Blue Chip Trader - - ERX Swing Long Follow Up ( 41.90 +2.69)
- Solid extension higher of its multi-week uptrend today...hitting $42 is good for a gain of +10 points (+30%) on our remaining Swing Long balance from $31 on its mid-Dec breakout.
- Partial profits into renewed upside is warranted if you can.
- It's simply about "trimming and trailing" for me at this stage. Balance stops around rising 10-day ma near 38 for now.
- Click here for my Daily ERX chart.
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Nordstrom (JWN) +30%
The retail sector was beaten down for most of 2017 as a competitive environment led to promotions and poor margins. Event Trader went into the trade in mid-November as a swing through the holidays. His thesis was that the strong jobs environment and some signs of growing wages would lead to increased spending over the holiday season. This would lead to buying in the retail space.
17-Nov-17
08:47 ET
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EVENT
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Event Trader: Also piling on TRENDs retail comment from earlier (8:30am), I will be looking at a Long in JWN today, early thoughts are this will be a swing into the Xmas holidays (39.97)
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04-Dec-17
10:55 ET
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EVENT
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Event Trader: Taking 1/2 off JWN Long here for approx 18% profit (11/12 entry); Have about 1/3 of the position remaining and will move my stops to $43 to lock in profits on that piece (47.32 +1.97)
JWN has been enjoying a nice bounce back on:
- Turnaround in sentiment in the retailer space as early signs point to a strong holiday shopping period.
- Retailers will be a key beneficiary of the tax reform as the space pays some of the highest rates in the entry.
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12-Jan-18
10:08 ET
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EVENT
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Event Trader: Taking the remaining piece of my JWN Long here for approx 30% profit (1/3 of position was left after taking the trade on 11/17 ahead of the Holiday season) (52.19 +2.09)
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Twitter (TWTR) +50%
Tech Trader's thesis on TWTR (from roughly 15-17ish) was simply that the company was massively under-valued at that level and is "still" undervalued at notably higher price levels. He can easily value the name into the low/mid $40's and sees potential for potentially 100B Mcap over time.
02-May-17
13:25 ET
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TECHT
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Tech Trader: Tech Vibes
TWTR -- Nice extension higher. The stock is now where I thought it should have been the day after earnings. Again, if you believe TWTR was "actually worth" $14-15 then you have a lot to learn. Many stocks are not trading anywhere close to what they are worth. I think the coming months and QTR's will end up teaching people a lot of lessons about just how skewed 100's of names are and have been. Both on the low/beaten undervalued side as well as the massively over hyped, overvalued and "over owned" side...
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18-Dec-17
13:01 ET
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TECHT
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Tech Trader: Tech Vibes, TWTR's Next QTR in the BAG??
So before I get all Bullish on TWTR and a couple other names, I must usher my "Sentiment Warning" again. Yes, it's the end of the year. Yes we have the "I'm now a Crypto Dot Co." company names putting in nutty upside moves and yes we still have a bullish FED and Macro Econ outlook. But we are also at that NYMO level (or close to it) where these out of nowhere flash corrections from all year long have emanated from. So just heed that warning for what it is. As it has worked every time this year -- and that's the Elevated NYMO has = short sharp selling.
So now onto my names of note:
TWTR -- 2 upgrades today and my chart work is marking the $32 area (give or take 2pts) as the next major upside level. Pretty staunch resistance sits at $25ish but I think that breaks now as the next couple QTR's have increasing/improving visibility now. My work has shown for some time that TWTR is done lowering Ad rates and will hold and even possibly raise them. While many have cited all sorts of reasons for TWTR's demise, I'd note that TWTR lowering Ad rates by 65-80% in total have had a lot more do with the lack of revenue growth than any other single factor. Now we could talk about all sorts of reason why Ad rates dropped that much. But suffice to say, I'd would assert that "JACK" now has TWTR is very good position (might we even call is SQuare like?), to re-accelerate REV's for a potentially sustained period of time. I still think this will trade at a massively higher MCap then SNAP in coming mths/Qtr's/Yr's...
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08-Jan-18
14:58 ET
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TECHT
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Tech Trader: Tech Vibes Rapid Fire
TWTR -- Acts great, as previously stated, there's potential for an additional pre-EPS push. How ironic is it going to be if we see most of the analysts come in with "fresh buys" above $30 or $34 or $38 etc... Moreover, there's loads of bullish option activity on the name -- if you believe in that sort of thing. My view (and stats), support that mega ST Bullish option activity is usually ST negative for a stock. However, there are times like this, IE., when a company is a few weeks from reporting where options can be more useful and if nothing else imply greater future Vol. in the name to come. And I do think that is TWTR next stage. Big moves, wider trading ranges, more Vol., which could result in a long term upward sloping channel with a pretty wide range from the top to the bottom of said channel...
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Redfin (RDFN) +33%
Redfin is possibly Tech Trader's favorite long-term growth investment. He views it very similarly to how he viewed MU, AAPL and PYPL at lows 1-2 years ago. The only difference being that RDFN is a younger and smaller Mcap company and thus should have a loads more LT growth runway. One thing Tech Trader strives to find in his research (which has driven a lot of success) is finding companies with massive TAM's (Total Addressable Markets) where the company can increase their market share in that TAM for years or decades. AAPL GOOG WDAY SPLK SWKS are all great examples of this theme. And all had similar TAM profiles in their younger years. Tech Trader thinks RDFN has equal if not better growth potential to all those companies.
30-Aug-17
10:15 ET
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TECHT
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Tech Trader: Quick Note RDFN (23.04)
I've added RDFN here this am at 23.04. I like the big pullback from highs, on what is I think one of the better IPO "companies" to come along in the last year if not longer.
Long -- rdfn.
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06-Sep-17
14:15 ET
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TECHT
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Tech Trader: Thursday EPS Preview
RDFN -- Last but not least is RDFN and coming out of the gate with their first report, post IPO, I'd suspect this one should be strong to very strong. I think this could be a key disruptor in their space and end up becoming a much much larger company in the coming years. Thus I could be a buyer on dips in this name for the next 3-4 YR's if not longer...
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03-Jan-18
10:17 ET
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TECHT
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Tech Trader: Taking Advantage of of Pops for Some Swaps (7.25)
RDFN -- Selling the last of my RDFN (30.68) as it's been a big winner esp. for the short holding period I've had it. And while RDFN is one of my Fav. names LT, I think it's been very juiced into YE and I feel highly confident that I can add this one back at lower prices. Moreover, it might fade a good bit into and post their ER in coming weeks...
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19-Dec-17
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FUNDX
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On December 19, Fundamental Investor called VIPS a possible breakout name for 2018 at $12.07. The stock is already up around 30% since then. VIPS is a Chinese online discount retailer that specializes in selling luxury brand name products via what are known as "flash sales," which are events where VIPS will offer deeply discounted merchandise for a short period of time. FUNDX got excited about the name after Tencent and JD.com announced they would buy a large stake in VIPS and grant VIPS an entry on the interface of Weixin Wallet enabling Vipshop to use traffic from Tencent's Weixin platform, and JD.com will grant VIPS entries on both the main page of JD.com's mobile app. Not only do they get a significant equity investment and at a very nice premium, they also get to partner with two major internet names in China to help boost their sales. It's also a vote of confidence that makes investors take notice of VIPS and think there is some good potential here with VIPS if these two big internet names like what they see. FUNDX has been writing about VIPS for years as a GROWX name so he knows the story well. VIPS has been struggling lately but he thought this news gets them back on the map.
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Lands End (LE) +35%
Scalp Trader captured quick gains on a Retailer that had been left for dead. He recognized that the trend was starting to turn in the Retail Sector and that money was looking to flow back into strong/improving stories.
05-Dec-17
09:37 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader: LE Swing Long -- Strong report from retailer this morning. Using pullback from early highs to establish a 1/2 swing long position. Risking about 2 pts. This is part of my Long Retail theme. (12.80 +1.00)
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07-Dec-17
10:20 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader: LE Swing Long Update -- I'm trimming 1/3 of the LE swing long for profit of approx. 17%. Stops to $12.80 entry on the remainder. (14.95 +0.95)
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13-Dec-17
09:40 ET
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SCALP
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ScalpTrader: LE Swing Update -- I'm going to lock in profits on last piece of the LE swing position for +35%. (17.25 +0.65)
Link to original entry.
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Nabors (NBR) +15%
Commodities Trader's play on the oil and gas drilling space gained 15% as data finally indicates some improvement starting in this industry following the 2014 oil collapse.
21-Nov-17
14:43 ET
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CMDTY
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Commodities Trader: NBR Long Position Idea (5.68 -0.18)
I'm taking a 1/2 long position here in oil and gas land driller Nabors Industries (NBR) as a swing long that I plan on hold for a while.
Nabors (NBR) owns and operates the world's largest land-based drilling rig fleet and are a leading provider of offshore platform drilling rigs in the United States and multiple international markets.
Nabors also provides advanced wellbore placement services, drilling software and performance tools, drilling equipment and innovative technologies throughout the world's most significant oil and gas markets. Total rigs- 453 (436 land rigs, 17 offshore). Working rigs = 212.
These increases were significantly offset by lower results in the Rig Services segment. Although Nabors Drilling Solutions (NDS) achieved a 28% increase in adjusted EBITDA, it was more than offset by lower results in Canrig. This resulted from an unexpected number of capital equipment cancellations and a larger number of delivery deferrals.
Co has some upside potential, earnings growth potential, both domestically here and internationally. With a focus on debt reduction, combined with some earnings growth potential, NBR may get some buying interest. And also, with shares easily below $6.00 here, I'm taking a 1/2 size long for now.
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04-Dec-17
10:48 ET
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CMDTY
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Commodities Trader: NBR Long Position Update - CLOSING OUT (6.53 +0.17)
- Following recent price action, I'm closing my NBR long for now for +$0.85, or +15%
- I'll following up on this name again. I plan on getting long again soon as well
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24-Nov-17
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FUNDX
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On November 24, Fundamental Investor profiled this little known name as an attractive swing idea at $16.25, it’s now up more than 40% since then. IntriCon is a supplier of miniature and micro-miniature body-worn devices focusing on three main markets: medical, hearing health and professional audio. In its Medical segment, IIN has a strong presence in the diabetes market via its partnership with Medtronic (MDT) to make their wireless continuous glucose monitors (CGM), sensors and accessories. Its Hearing Health segment provides miniature hearing aids and its Professional Audio segment provides miniature audio devices for use in aviation, fire, law enforcement, military and the performing arts. The stock has been ramping since IIN reported strong Q3 results in early November. Its Medical segment saw revenue jump 68% YoY in Q3, primarily driven by the continued ramp of Medtronic's MiniMed 640G and 670G wireless glucose monitoring systems. IIN remains very well positioned with Medtronic long-term. In fact, Medtronic expects to increase sensor production capacity by the spring, which should drive significantly higher sensor assembly sales in 2018. Also, IIN's Hearing segment got a boost on the legislative front when, in August 2017, President Trump signed the FDA Reauthorization Act, which includes the OTC Hearing Aid Act of 2017. The legislation will enable adults with mild- to moderate-hearing loss to access OTC hearing aids without being seen by a hearing care professional. Only a small share of Americans with hearing loss (around 14%) use hearing aids, primarily due to their high cost ($2,400/ear). This should provide greater public access to OTC hearing aids at a lower cost, which is great for IIN.
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Alteryx (AYX) +44%
Back on May 17, Relative Value Trader opened an initial 1/2-size position in self-service data analytics software developer Alteryx (AYX). This was after the stock sharply pulled back, despite the fact that it reported an impressive beat-and-raise report only a few days prior to the trade. Taking advantage of these pull-backs would be a common theme for this holding as RVALU added a 1/4 on June 7 and August 2, making it a full position with a favorable blended cost basis. Over the course of the trade, AYX would post two more solid beat-and-raise reports with revenue clocking in at +50%. This ultimately created confidence in the company and stock -- as well as a potent catalyst. In fact, the trade on November 10 came on the heels of AYX's impressive Q3 report, which had the stock popping higher by 25% that day.
10-Nov-17
11:17 ET
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RVALU
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Relative Value Trader: Some Thoughts on Alteryx (AYX) & Redfin (RDFN) Following Earnings; Trimming 1/2 of AYX Position for +44%
Alteryx (AYX):
- After the close last night, the data analytics software developer reported solid upside Q3 results and provided Q4 EPS and revenue guidance that was above expectations. See last night's post @16:22. The report has shares popping higher by 14% on the day.
- Not only were the headline numbers strong, but, so too were several of its other key metrics. For instance:
- AYX added 231 customers in the quarter, following 258 adds in Q2 and 237 in Q1.
- Revenue retention rate was very healthy at 133%, roughly inline with last quarter's 134%.
- Operating loss improved to ($2.6) million from ($3.9) million in the year ago period.
- Non-GAAP gross margin also improved sharply to 86% from 82%.
- And cash flow from operations came in at a positive $748K compared to a cash burn of ($5.2) million.
- One of AYX's more attractive qualities is that its revenue growth has remained very consistent, not tapering off like many recent tech IPOs. Specifically, revenue growth came in at 52% this quarter, 52% last quarter, and 55% in Q1.
- Taking a look at valuation, with the jump higher today, AYX is trading with a 1-year forward P/S of 8.4x. That is pricey, but, I feel justified due to AYX's high double digit revenue growth, rising margins, and rapidly improving bottom line performance.
- With the surge higher today, I am taking some off the table to lock in gains. Specifically, I'm selling 1/2 of my position for +44%. This leaves AYX as a half size position with a cost basis of $17.85.
Redfin (RDFN):
- The news isn't quite as good for real estate tech/brokerage company Redfin (RDFN). It reported a mostly inline quarter and guided Q4 results inline -- which, for a high growth company like RDFN, is a disappointment. Rewinding to last quarter, RDFN just edged out the EPS consensus by a penny and revenue was merely inline. So far in its short history as a public company, it is tracing out a history of issuing results close to expectations. Again, which doesn't necessarily bode too well for a name viewed as a growth stock.
- That said, there were a few clear positives to takeaway. Most notably, RDFN continues to take market share. For the quarter, RDFN gained 0.11 percentage points over last year to 0.71% of U.S. existing home sales. Also, site traffic increased by 38%, continuing on an impressive trend of active user gains as RDFN pads its lead as the most popular online real estate site.
- RDFN's growth catalysts remain ahead of it and there is momentum underlying its business. There is plenty of room for market penetration, and, Redfin Now continues to gain traction. During the call last night, management said that over the next 6-9 months it will make a decision on whether to invest more fully in that business, or, to partner with a another company on it. The trend for Redfin Now has been positive, so, I'd be looking for it to ramp up efforts over the coming quarters.
- RDFN is a full-size position with a cost basis of $24.44 (-X%). At this point, I don't have any plans to take any actions. But, I am setting a stop at $19.50 for downside protection. Overall, I believe the growth story remains in tact. However, it's performance vs. expectations has admittedly been a bit disappointing so far.
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18-Sep-17
10:36 ET
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TREND
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TrendTracker: Selling one-third of my Sientra (SIEN) swing long for +84% from my average entry (16.05 +0.61)
I still like this stock but it seems prudent to take some profits here.
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13-Feb-18
15:24 ET
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TREND
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TrendTracker: Selling another 1/4 size piece in my Match (MTCH) swing long for +140% (39.37 +1.38)
Still like this stock longer term; down to a 1/2 size position.
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