28-Nov-16
09:55 ET |
CHART |
ChartTrader: One basic idea to keep in mind over next couple days where Oil is concerned
The market probably knows that the OPEC meeting and decision will be a very managed process, and there's too much in the way of credibility at stake for them to fail to get something together that they can call "a deal" on Wednesday. Hence, as we see headlines hit the market over the next 48 hours -- which we will -- some will be encouraging and others not so much. It is the latter ones (imagine something like "Iran oil minister says unlikely to accepts suggested cuts") that will likely offer opportunities on the long side in oil futures for scalps or daytrades. Just something to keep in mind. |
29-Nov-16
08:57ET |
CHART |
ChartTrader: Buying some Crude Oil at half size at 45.28; risking 75 ticks
Jan, 2017 contract (CLf7). This is the type of dynamic I was talking about yesterday. |
29-Nov-16
10:06 ET |
CHART |
ChartTrader: I think Iran is now proposing the Saudis cut to 9.5
This jockeying will continue... I'm actually going to put the Oil trade back on here after getting my stop touched, and go with the original 75 tick risk and half size in play. |
29-Nov-16
15:58 ET |
CHART |
ChartTrader: Going to keep the half-size Crude Oil long in place with the stop at 45.05 overnight... up slightly on the trade at present
If support in place all day today somehow holds up, will put us in line to catch the rally back higher when a deal is announced. Again, I believe this will be the case.
The deal will be a face-saver and not a game-changer. But they have to announce some kind of deal given what they have been saying for the past two months or they might as well leave Vienna for the last time and turn out the lights when they go because there won't be an OPEC in any important sense otherwise. At this point, KSA, IRQ, and IRN need to split up about 500k bopd cut between them. They are all trying to seem like they will walk away from the table unless they get just what they want. But that's how negotiations always go when players are experienced and terms are important. The whole process just becomes about trying to make the other side believe you are willing to walk away. That doesn't mean they willwalk away. It's a game. They each want the best numbers they can get. But they also all know they can't leave without some kind of deal. That's my bias at present.
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30-Nov-16
04:17 ET |
CHART |
ChartTrader: 47.50 order hit.. out of second piece for about +240 ticks in Crude long
See 3:40. |
30-Nov-16
09:45 ET |
CHART |
ChartTrader: Going to change my mind and exit the Crude Oil long position here for +320 ticks
Clear to me now that they got this deal done by kicking Indonesia out. Indonesia was a net importer. The whole "output cut" is just Saudis cutting by 500k bopd. The other 700k is what Indonesia was importing. So, world production really doesn't change at all given that Indonesia will not be acting any different. They will simply not be counted as part of OPEC any more. Long story short: OPEC cut output by 500k bopd, not 1.2 mln. I'm really not sure whether or not the market fully realizes this yet. Maybe it does. Maybe this is the reaction to that whole picture. In any case, I'm out.
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