The S&P 500 has gone up every day this week and most days this month. It can be excused, then, if it doesn't go up at today's open. Currently, that is the trading fate that awaits it -- and the other major indices for that matter, too.
The S&P 500 futures are down seven points and are trading 0.2% below fair value. The Nasdaq 100 futures are down 30 points and are trading 0.3% below fair value. The Dow Jones Industrial Average futures are down 34 points and are trading 0.1% below fair value.
There isn't a lot of selling conviction wrapped up in the futures trade, which is saying something considering there is heightened uncertainty around the U.S.-Iran situation, heightened uncertainty surrounding the U.S.-China situation, and considering the S&P 500 is up 7.6% since June 3.
The modest, downside bias this morning probably has more to do with the latter than anything else. The stock market has come a long way in a short amount of time, catalyzed by visions of rate cuts dancing in the heads of participants.
The huge move since early June, which has run the S&P 500 to an all-time high, is inviting some criticism that it hasn't been justified by a fundamental backdrop that includes weakening growth and downward revisions to earnings estimates.
To be fair, the fundamental backdrop has also included a notable drop in interest rates that has provided the cover for multiple expansion and the renewed embrace of the "TINA" trade (i.e. There Is No Alternative).
Today could very well be a day of rest for the market heading into a weekend that will be twinged with increased uncertainty as market participants wonder what they will soon find out about the U.S. response to Iran shooting down an unmanned military drone.
According to the New York Times, President Trump ordered a military attack on Iranian targets, but then allegedly rescinded the order as the operation began. The White House hasn't confirmed the report, yet there is a media buzz today surrounding the report that has helped supplement an otherwise slow day of news.
The same can be said for a big fire and explosion that rocked the East Coast's largest refinery in Philadelphia overnight. That fire has pushed RBOB gasoline futures up 3.6% to $1.83/gallon.
Still, the images of the explosion have been more sensational than the news itself has been with respect to moving the broader market.
The broader market is cooling down after its own explosion, the spark for which was provided by yet another dovish pivot from Fed Chair Powell on June 4. All in all, though, there won't be much to see at today's open.
There may be a little backing and filling, but beyond that, traders are apt to wait and see what the Existing Home Sales Report for May (Briefing.com consensus 5.30 million) produces at 10:00 a.m. ET and what the wires/Twitter produce throughout the day regarding the Iranian situation and trade talks with China.