Tesla (TSLA) will report second quarter deliveries sometime this week.
Tesla is expected to have delivered 90,000 electric vehicles in the second quarter, just shy of the company's record from the fourth quarter of 2018. That would represent growth of ~120% over the second quarter of last year.
At the Investor Day last month, Elon Musk said that deliveries would be "very close" to a record.
Deliveries of the Model 3 are expected to grow 300% to ~74,000, eclipsing the fourth quarter of 2018's record of 63,359.
That means sales of the Model S and Model X fell close to 30% yr/yr compared to a 44% decline in the first quarter.
First quarter deliveries declined sequentially due to delivery/logistic challenges and reduced demand after the US Federal Tax credit got cut in half on January 1. The Model S and X have been on the market for some time. Model 3 demand may be cannibalizing sales of Tesla's older, more expensive EVs. Tesla has cut the price of the Model S/X numerous times this year, which has fueled demand concerns.
Catching up on deliveries, as well as selling the Model 3 into Europe, led to a bounce back in the second quarter. However, the market remains concerned about demand despite Elon Musk insisting that it is not an issue. Tesla has guided for deliveries up 45-65% to 360,000-400,000 EVs this year.
Adding to demand concerns, the Federal EV tax credit got cut in half again to $1,875 starting today.
The other primary concern for investors is margins and profitability. Earnings estimates for this year have fallen to more than $1.00/share loss from over $6.00 in profit six months ago as reality set in about the company's electric vehicle operations.
In May, the company raised over $2 bln while boasting its autonomous driving efforts, shifting away from a goal for near-term sustainable profitability.
Tesla has a robust product pipeline (including a crossover Model Y and semitruck) but the timing and execution of new EVs leads to plenty of skepticism as the company has consistently missed production targets.
Tesla portrays itself as a vertically integrated clean energy company with a lead in autonomous driving technology, but Wall Street analysts increasingly see a niche automaker with plenty of risks. Short sellers point to incessant executive departures which serve as a red flag. Vice President of Production and former Volksweagen executive Peter Hochholdinger reportedly left the company last week.
Tesla stock is down 30% year-to-date amid demand and margin concerns. The company still has a $40 bln market cap. More than 30% of the float was recently sold short. The company will release second quarter financial results in late July or early August.