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Last Update: 16-Jan-19 12:44 ET
Looking Ahead - January 17, 2019 - Initial Claims report (ECONX)
The initial claims report has lacked cachet as a market-moving report, primarily because it has provided reliably good economic news for many years now. With the partial government shutdown persisting, though, this report should be given a closer look than usual by the market.
Initial Jobless Claims Report (Thursday, January 17, at 8:30 a.m. ET)- Why it's important
- As a weekly report, it provides timely information on labor market conditions.
- Economic views are built around employment conditions, so the level of initial claims can shape expectations for both consumer and business spending.
- There can be a good bit of volatility in the weekly reporting for initial claims; hence, economists tend to look more closely at the trend in the four-week moving average, which is also provided in the report.
- The four-week moving average of 221,750 is close to a record low. At such a low level, the market's sensitivity to a potential turning point for this data series will be heightened.
- This week's report will cover the period in which the survey for the January employment is conducted, so it will influence economists' thoughts on the change in nonfarm payrolls for January.
- There will be added interest in this report to see how the partial government shutdown is influencing initial claims filings by federal government workers.
- A closer look
- Last week marked the 201st straight week that initial claims have been below 300,000.
- What's in play?
- Treasuries and related bond ETFs
- ProShares UltraShort 20+ year Treasury (TBT)
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond (TLT)
- iShares 1-3 Year Treasury Bond (SHY)
- Schwab Short-term US Treasury ETF (SCHO)
- iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond (HYG)
- SPDR Barclays High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)
- iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD)
- iShares Floating rate Bond ETF (FLOT)
- U.S. Dollar and related ETFs
- DB USD Index Bullish (UUP)
- DB USD Index Bearish (UDN)
- ETFs and inverse ETFs for the major averages
- SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Short S&P 500 (SH)
- Invesco QQQ Trust (QQQ)
- Short QQQ (PSQ)
- iShares Russell 2000 (IWM)
- Short Russell 2000 (RWM)
- SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF (DIA)
- Short Dow 30 (DOG)
- Fed funds futures
- Treasuries and related bond ETFs
