Autodesk (ADSK) will report second quarter (July) results
this afternoon and host a call at 5:00 PM EST.
Autodesk offers a broad suite of 3D computer-aided design (CAD) software and tools. Its customers are architects, engineers, product designers, manufacturing firms, and digital media/entertainment firms.
Analysts expect second quarter non-GAAP earnings per share at the high end of its $0.13-0.16 guidance with revenue up 20% at the midpoint of its $595-605 mln guidance.
The company has beaten estimates on the top and bottom line eight quarters in a row but has also guided next quarter EPS below estimates two quarters in a row.
However, analysts are more focused on annual recurring revenue (ARR) and subscriber metrics, which are more indicative of the company's successful transition to a subscription-as-a-service (SaaS) business model.
Estimates call for total ARR +25% to $2.28 bln with 117K net subscriber additions and billings +20% to $569 mln.
AutoDesk has guided for FY19 (January) non-GAAP EPS of $0.77-0.95 on revenue of $2.455-2.505 bln (+21% year/year under ASC 606) with total ARR +28-30% and 500-550K net subscription additions.
At the Investor Day in March 28, the company guided for 25% CAGR in ARR, 6% CAGR in ARPS (average revenue per subscriber) and 18% CAGR subscriptions though 2020. The company also guided for FY20 free cash flow of $1.4 bln and FY23 FCF of $2.4 bln.
The stock broke out to an all-time high in early March despite missing Q4 subscriber estimates as the ARR growth/outlook continued to show strength. The stock has been consolidating in a rather narrow range between $125-140/share even since.
With a $30 bln market cap, the stock trades at 12x sales, which is not cheap and is toward the high end of high-quality cloud software peers. However, the stock also trades at a more reasonable 21x FCF guidance for next year.
The weekly options are pricing in a ~7% move in the stock tomorrow.
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