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Updated: 30-Oct-26 09:05 ET
Halloween bag full of familiar tricks

Briefing.com Summary:

*Results from Amazon and Intel fuel ongoing worries about aggressive AI-related spending.

*Treasuries continue recent rally despite rising price of oil.

*Q3 Employment Cost Index shows ongoing struggle in wage growth relative to inflation.

 

There will be no session on Halloween this year, but things are looking spooky enough this morning with equity futures pointing to a sharply lower start that will return the Nasdaq to levels not seen since early August while the S&P 500 is set to revisit last week's lows.

Thursday's trade was underscored by growing concerns about the exploding cost of the AI buildout and those concerns were compounded overnight after quarterly results from Amazon (AMZN) and Intel (INTC) also showed big spending that is set to continue. To that point, Amazon maintained its capital spending forecast for the current fiscal year at $220 billion while Intel said it does not expect positive cash flow in 2027.

The results echoed through other markets, contributing to a poor finish to the week in South Korea (-3.5%) and Japan (-2.1%) with ongoing volatility in tech stocks overshadowing last night's release of the latest policy statement from the Bank of Japan. The directive left the policy rate at 1.25%, but the central bank finally acknowledged that its price target has been reached, announcing that sales of ETFs will increase to JPY860 billion from JPY330 billion in January.

Besides the gut-wrenching volatility in tech stocks, another theme that is continuing this morning is the advance in Treasuries after the complex rallied strongly as the market received quarterly results from Amazon and Intel last evening. That rally was sustained through the night even though crude oil has climbed above $104/bbl amid persistent speculation that additional military action against Iran is likely after voting in midterm elections ends on Tuesday.

Yields on the 2-yr note (4.61%) and the 10-yr note (4.94%) are down five basis points apiece in early action. Treasuries inched down from their opening highs after the market received the Q3 Employment Cost Index, which increased 0.8% (Briefing.com consensus 0.8%) to follow a 0.9% increase in Q2. The report showed wages and salaries rising 0.7% while benefits were up 0.9%.

The key takeaway is that wages and salaries for civilian workers were up 3.1% year-over-year, maintaining a trend that continues undershooting inflation. This will feed ongoing concerns about pressure on discretionary spending activity.

This morning, however, the pressure on equities has stolen the focus with investors hopeful to see a treat or two outside the AI universe that could help stem the early bleeding.

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