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Cardlytics (CDLX -35%) is seeing its card denied today as the stock is trading sharply lower after reporting Q4 results/guidance last night. Cardlytics partners with banks to run their rewards programs and, in turn, CDLX gets data on how these consumers spend their money which it then sells to marketers.

It was sort of a mixed bag in terms of results/guidance and there were some management changes:

• CDLX reported very impressive results for Q4 as non-GAAP EPS jumped to $0.18 from a $(0.06) loss last year.
  • This was well ahead of the $0.04 consensus estimate.
  • However, revenue was just in-line with analyst expectations.
• The main problem was the guidance. Q1 is typically seasonally slower and a sequential decline from Q4 was a given.
  • Last year there was a 25% drop-off but this year CDLX is guiding to a 35% sequential decline to revenue of $43.5-46.5 mln vs consensus of $52.8 mln, citing the coronavirus.
• Perhaps even more scary for investors was CDLX's decision not to provide any full year guidance.
  • CDLX typically provides next quarter and full year guidance.
  • To not provide any full year guidance at all makes us think management is just not really sure about the severity of the coronavirus impact.
• CDLX announced that Co-Founder and COO Lynne Laube will become CEO. Current CEO Scott Grimes will become Executive Chairman. Also, CDLX's current CFO David Evans will become Chief Administrative Officer and Controller Andy Christiansen will become CFO.

The Q1 guidance and the decision to not provide 2020 guidance are really spooking investors today. This happening at the same time as a lot of management changes makes us wonder if there are other issues going on behind the scenes. CDLX does say it feels very positive about its outlook for later in the year, but the confluence of these events makes us nervous.

The guidance or lack thereof for the full year are not only concerning for CDLX's near term financial performance, but it's concerning to us from a more macro sense. Keep in mind that CDLX's business model provides it with deep insight into consumer spending trends. It makes us wonder what they are seeing and what this could mean for the economy more generally. This could be a canary in the coal mine.