Updated: 13-Mar-26 09:24 ET
Highlights
- Personal Income increased 0.4% month-over-month in January (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%) after rising 0.3% in December.
- Personal spending was also up 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.2%) following a 0.4% increase in December.
- The PCE Price Index rose 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.3%), while the core PCE Price Index, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.4% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus 0.4%).
- On a year-over-year basis, the PCE Price Index increased 2.8% versus 2.9% in December, and the core PCE Price Index increased 3.1%, versus 3.0% in December.
- The PCE Index for Goods for goods was up 0.3% in January after increasing 0.4% in December. The index was up 1.3% year-over-year in January versus 1.7% in December.
- The PCE Price Index for Services was up 0.4% in January after increasing 0.3% in December. The index was up 3.5% year-over-year versus 3.4% in December.
- Wages and salaries increased 0.5% month-over-month in January after increasing 0.1% in December.Rental income was flat month-over-month in January after no change in December.
- Personal interest income increased 0.2% month-over-month in January after increasing 0.3% in December. Personal dividend income jumped 2.0% after rising 0.1% in December.
- Real disposable income was up 0.7% month-over-month in January after no change in December. Real personal spending was up 0.1% month-over-month after increasing 0.1% in December.
- The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, rose to 4.5% from 4.0% in December.
- The key takeaway from the report is that the Fed's preferred inflation measure, the core PCE Price Index, edged up in January, which presents a headwind to rate cut expectations.
| Category | FEB | DEC | NOV | OCT | SEP |
| Personal Income | |||||
| Total Income | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 0.4% |
| Wage and Salary | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.4% |
| Disposable Income | 0.9% | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Savings Rate | 4.5% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.0% | 4.3% |
| Personal Consumption | |||||
| Total (Nominal) | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.4% |
| Total (Real, Chain $) | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Core PCE Deflator | |||||
| Month/Month | 0.4% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.2% |
| Year/Year | 3.1% | 3.0% | 2.8% | 2.8% | 2.8% |
