Updated: 29-Aug-25 09:24 ET
Highlights
- Personal income, bolstered by a 0.6% increase in wages and salaries, increased 0.4% month-over-month in July (Briefing.com consensus: 0.4%) following a 0.3% increase in June.
- Personal spending increased 0.5% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.3%) in June.
- The PCE Price Index increased 0.2% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.2%) following a 0.2% increase in June.
- Core PCE inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased 0.3% month-over-month (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) following a 0.3% increase in June.
- On a year-over-year basis, PCE inflation was up 2.6%, versus 2.6% in June, while core PCE inflation was up 2.9%, versus 2.8% in June. The Fed's inflation target is 2.0%.
- The PCE Price Index for Goods was down 0.1% month-over-month and up 0.5% year-over-year versus 0.6% in June.
- The PCE Price Index for Services was up 0.3% month-over-month, leaving it up 3.6% year-over-year versus 3.5% in June.
- Wages and salaries increased 0.6% month-over-month after increasing 0.1% in June.
- Rental income was up 0.5% month-over-month after being down 0.4% in June.
- Personal interest income fell 0.1% month-over-month after increasing 0.2% in June. Personal dividend income was up 0.3% month-over-month following a 0.2% decline in June.
- Real disposable income was up 0.2% month-over-month and was up 2.0% year-over-year versus 1.7% in June.
- Real personal spending increased 0.3% month-over-month and was up 2.1% year-over-year versus 2.2% in June.
- The personal savings rate, as a percentage of disposable personal income, held steady at 4.4%.
- The key takeaway from the report is that it was largely in line with expectations, so the market is apt to stick to its thinking that there will be a rate cut in September even though PCE inflation remains stuck above the Fed's 2.0% target.
| Category | JUL | JUN | MAY | APR | MAR |
| Personal Income | |||||
| Total Income | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.4% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Wage and Salary | 0.6% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.4% | 0.5% |
| Disposable Income | 0.4% | 0.3% | -0.5% | 0.8% | 0.6% |
| Savings Rate | 4.4% | 4.4% | 4.5% | 5.0% | 4.4% |
| Personal Consumption | |||||
| Total (Nominal) | 0.5% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.7% |
| Total (Real, Chain $) | 0.3% | 0.1% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.7% |
| Core PCE Deflator | |||||
| Month/Month | 0.3% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
| Year/Year | 2.9% | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 2.7% |
