Updated: 24-Nov-25 16:51 ET
Highlights
- The September employment report, which is certainly a lagging indicator this time, suggested the labor market was not falling apart in September. In fact, nonfarm payroll gains accelerated to 119,000 after declining by 4,000 in August.
- September nonfarm payrolls increased by 119,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 50,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls increased to 62,000 from 18,000. August nonfarm payrolls revised to -4,000 from 22,000. July nonfarm payrolls revised to 72,000 from 79,000.
- September private sector payrolls increased by 97,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 58,000). August private sector payrolls revised to 18,000 from 38,000. July private sector payrolls revised to 56,000 from 77,000.
- September unemployment rate was 4.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 4.3%) versus 4.3% in August. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 23.6% of the unemployed versus 25.7% in August. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, decreased to 8.0% from 8.1% in August.
- September average hourly earnings were up 0.2% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) versus an upwardly revised 0.4% increase (from 0.3%) in August. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.8% versus 3.8% for the 12 months ending in August.
- The average workweek in September was 34.2 hours (Briefing.com consensus: 34.3) versus 34.2 hours in August. Manufacturing workweek changed little at 39.9 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 2.9 hours.
- The labor force participation rate increased to 62.4% from 62.3%.
- The employment-population ratio increased to 59.7% from 59.6%.
- This wasn't an abjectly strong report, nor was it an abjectly weak report. We wouldn't call it "just right" either, not with the uptick in the unemployment rate and the stalling out of average weekly hours worked, but the key takeaway is that this report wouldn't be enough to convince the more hawkish-minded Fed officials to cut rates in December.
| Category | SEP | AUG | JUL | JUN | MAY |
| Establishment Survey | |||||
| Nonfarm Payrolls | 119K | -4K | 72K | -13K | 19K |
| Goods-Producing | 10K | -32K | -16K | -21K | -13K |
| Construction | 19K | -14K | -3K | -2K | 2K |
| Manufacturing | -6K | -15K | -9K | -17K | -11K |
| Service-Providing | 87K | 50K | 72K | -6K | 82K |
| Retail Trade | 14K | 3K | 6K | -5K | -15K |
| Financial | 5K | -15K | 1K | -6K | 7K |
| Business | -20K | -17K | -13K | -24K | -23K |
| Temporary help | -16K | -10K | -15K | -10K | -15K |
| Education/Health | 59K | 43K | 80K | 51K | 70K |
| Leisure/Hospitality | 47K | 32K | 9K | -5K | 27K |
| Government | 22K | -22K | 16K | 14K | -50K |
| Average Workweek | 34.2 | 34.2 | 34.3 | 34.2 | 34.3 |
| Production Workweek | 33.7 | 33.6 | 33.7 | 33.6 | 33.7 |
| Factory Overtime | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.6 |
| Aggregate Hours Index | 0.1% | -0.3% | 0.3% | -0.3% | 0.1% |
| Avg Hourly Earnings | 0.2% | 0.4% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 0.4% |
| Household Survey | |||||
| Household Survey | |||||
| Civilian Unemp. Rate | 4.4% | 4.3% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.2% |
| Civilian Labor Force | 470K | 436K | -38K | -130K | -625K |
| Civilian Employed | 251K | 288K | -260K | 93K | -696K |
| Civilian Unemployed | 219K | 148K | 221K | -222K | 71K |
