Updated: 13-Mar-26 09:35 ET
Highlights
- Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.7% (Briefing.com consensus 1.4%) from the advance estimate of 1.4%. The GDP Price Deflator was revised to 3.8% from 3.6% in the advance estimate.
- Personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0%, down from 2.4% in the advance estimate and down from 3.5% in the third quarter. The PCE component contributed 1.33 percentage points to real GDP growth in the fourth quarter.
- Gross private domestic investment was up 3.3% versus up 3.8% in the advance estimate and a flat reading in the third quarter. Gross private domestic investment contributed 0.57 percentage points to growth in the fourth quarter.
- Exports decreased 3.3% versus a decrease of 0.9% in the advance estimate and a 9.6% increase in the third quarter. Imports were down 1.1% versus down 1.3% in the advance estimate and down 4.4% in the third quarter.
- Government spending decreased 5.8% versus a 5.1% decrease in the advance estimate and a 2.2% increase in the third quarter. Government spending subtracted 1.03 percentage points from growth in the fourth quarter.
- Real final sales of domestic product, which excludes the change in private inventories, increased 0.4% versus a 1.2% increase in the advance estimate and a 4.5% increase in the third quarter.
- Real final sales to private domestic purchasers increased 1.9% versus a 1.1% increase in the advance estimate and a 2.8% increase in the third quarter.
- The personal savings rate as a percentage of disposable personal income decreased to 4.0% from 4.4% in the third quarter.
- The PCE Price Index increased 2.9% versus 2.9% in the advance estimate and 2.8% in the third quarter. The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, increased 2.7% versus 2.9% in the third quarter.
- The key takeaway from the report is that growth decelerated notably in Q4 while the Price Deflator was revised higher, which is a disappointing combination.
| Category | Q4 | Q3 | Q2 | Q1 | Q4 |
| GDP | 0.7% | 4.4% | 3.8% | -0.6% | 1.9% |
| Inventories (change) | -$7.5B | -$23.9B | -$18.3B | $172.0B | $17.1B |
| Final Sales | 0.4% | 4.5% | 7.5% | -3.2% | 2.8% |
| PCE | 2.0% | 3.5% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 3.9% |
| Nonresidential Inv. | 2.2% | 3.2% | 7.3% | 9.5% | -3.7% |
| Structures | -7.1% | -5.0% | -7.5% | -3.1% | -8.1% |
| Equipment | 3.9% | 5.3% | 8.5% | 21.4% | -4.3% |
| Intellectual Property | 5.7% | 5.6% | 15.0% | 6.5% | -0.6% |
| Residential Inv. | -0.5% | -7.1% | -5.1% | -1.0% | 4.3% |
| Net Exports | -$968.2B | -$955.5B | -$1058.0B | -$1380.7B | -$1069.0B |
| Export | -3.3% | 9.6% | -1.8% | 0.2% | -0.9% |
| Imports | -1.1% | -4.4% | -29.3% | 38.0% | -0.2% |
| Government | -5.8% | 2.2% | -0.1% | -1.0% | 3.3% |
| GDP Price Index | 3.8% | 3.8% | 2.1% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
