February Nonfarm Payrolls

February Nonfarm Payrolls
Updated: 06-Mar-26 09:40 ET

Highlights

Nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 in February (Briefing.com consensus: 60,000). Revisions for December and January combined were 69,000 lower than previously reported.
The bright spot was average hourly earnings, which jumped 0.4%, leaving the year-over-year increase at 3.8% versus 3.7% in January, and real earnings on a positive trajectory.

Key Factors

February nonfarm payrolls declined by 92,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 60,000). The 3-month average for total nonfarm payrolls decreased to 6,000 from 50,000. January nonfarm payrolls revised to 126,000 from 130,000. December nonfarm payrolls revised to -17,000 from 48,000.
February private sector payrolls declined by 86,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 78,000). January private sector payrolls revised to 146,000 from 172,000. December private sector payrolls revised to -7,000 from 64,000.
February unemployment rate was 4.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 4.3%) versus 4.3% in January. Persons unemployed for 27 weeks or more accounted for 25.3% of the unemployed versus 24.7% in January. The U6 unemployment rate, which accounts for unemployed and underemployed workers, decreased to 7.9% from 8.1% in January.
February average hourly earnings were up 0.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.3%) versus a 0.4% increase in January. Over the last 12 months, average hourly earnings have risen 3.8%, versus 3.7% for the 12 months ending in January.
The average workweek in February was 34.3 hours (Briefing.com consensus: 34.3) versus 34.3 hours in January. The manufacturing workweek dipped 0.1 hour to 40.1 hours. Factory overtime was unchanged at 3.0 hours.
The labor force participation rate decreased to 62.0% from 62.1% in January.
The employment-population ratio decreased to 59.3% from 59.4% in January.

Big Picture

The key takeaway from the report, however, is that it muddles the economic view for the Fed, with its twin planks of negative job growth and higher wage inflation. Accordingly, look for the Fed to sit on its policy hands, unwilling to cut rates for now as it also contends with the spike in oil prices and the uncertainty of the Iran war.