Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• New home sales increased 6.4% month-over-month in August to 684,000 (Briefing.com consensus: 610,000) from an upwardly revised 643,000 (from 607,000) in July. On a year-over-year basis, new home sales were down 2.0%.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that the latest monthly sales rebound exceeded expectations and coincided with lower prices, but sales still trailed their year-ago level.
    • The median price was $393,700 and decreased 5.8% year-over-year, while the average price was $478,700 and decreased 8.8%.
    • Sales increased 84.9% in the Midwest and increased 6.9% in the South, while sales decreased 36.1% in the Northeast and decreased 15.2% in the West.
    • Supply declined to 8.5 months from 9.0 months, matching 8.5 months a year ago, with for-sale inventory at 483,000.
    • The percentage of new homes sold for $399,000 or less accounted for 52% of new homes sold versus 53% in July. Homes priced between $400,000 and $799,000 accounted for 41% of new homes sold versus 39% in July. New homes priced at $800,000 or over accounted for 7% of sales versus 9% in July.
  • Yield check:
    • 2-yr: -3 bps to 4.86%
    • 3-yr: -4 bps to 4.93%
    • 5-yr: -2 bps to 4.98%
    • 10-yr: -1 bp to 5.10%
    • 30-yr: unch at 5.40%