Bond Market Update

Data Recon

• Total retail sales increased 1.2% month-over-month in August (Briefing.com consensus: 0.9%) following an upwardly revised 0.5% decline (from -0.6%) in July. Excluding autos, retail sales surged 1.4% (Briefing.com consensus: 0.5%) following an upwardly revised 0.2% decline (from -0.3%) in July.
  • The key takeaway from the report is that it is indicative of ongoing strength in consumer spending on goods. Take gas station sales out of the equation, and retail sales were still up 1.1% month-over-month; core sales, which exclude autos, gasoline, building materials, and food services, jumped 1.4%.
• Yield Check:
  • 2-yr: -3 bps to 4.63%
  • 3-yr: -3 bps to 4.73%
  • 5-yr: -3 bps to 4.80%
  • 10-yr: -2 bps to 4.98%
  • 30-yr: -1 bp to 5.35%